College Football Expert Predictions - Memphis Tigers vs Navy Midshipmen

Navy Midshipmen take the field

Joe Gavazzi

Wednesday, October 19, 2016 1:08 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 19, 2016 1:08 PM UTC

This week, Memphis visits Navy in a critical AAC showdown.  Each of these teams is undefeated in league play making this game a deciding factor in who will lead the AAC-West. Here's your free college football pick.


Memphis (-3) vs Navy 3:30 PM ET

Each week in this space, I isolate an underdog of 7 or fewer points whom I believe can win the game outright.  The record to date is 5-1 ATS with 4 consecutive wins after Temple upset Central Florida last week 26-25.

When these teams met last year, Navy came away with a 45-20 victory.  In that game, the Middies totally dominated from the line of scrimmage outrushing the Tigers 378-133.  We know from our statistical studies of CFB that any team who double rushes their opponent has a 75% chance to beat the pointspread. Last weekend, double rushers were 16-5 ATS. That is a clear vote for the Middies option attack.  

Memphis emerged from their 7-17 SU nadir of their discontent in the first 2 years under Justin Fuente, to go 19-7 SU the last two seasons.  With Fuente matriculating to Virginia Tech, Mike Norvell, the former Todd Graham disciple, has taken the reins. With 16 returning starters, the Tigers are 5-1 SU after their victory over Tulane.  Four of their victims, however, include SEMO, Kansas, Bowling Green and Tulane.  In their road game against a quality opponent, Memphis lost 48-28 to Ole Miss allowing 624 yards. In their other victory against a quality team, Temple, by a score of 34-27 they were outgained 531-323.  Dating to last season, the Tigers have now failed to the spread 4 consecutive times when not playing in Memphis. The Navy defense is an underrated unit with Memphis QB Ferguson being already sacked 17 times.  He could be on the run again today.  

Navy returned just 2 offensive starters losing 4-year starter QB Reynolds as their signal caller.  It has taken a while for the offense to mesh behind new senior QB Worth.  Still, Navy is 4-1 SU for the year. The key in part to this winning selection is the Navy loss at Air Force. Now the Middies are no longer in control of their CIC trophy hopes.  As a result, they are fully focused on their 2nd-year conference affiliation with the AAC-West. Proof of that is their victory on this field vs. Houston 2 weeks ago when they defeated formerly undefeated Houston 46-40 as 17 point underdog. In that game, the option attack controlled matters outrushing the Cougars 306-125. A weather-related postponement against ECU last week gives Navy 2 weeks to refocus from that victory and prepare for Memphis. Finally, we cannot discount the strength of Navy’s home field where they are 22-3 SU of late including 9-1 ATS and 3-1 ATS in the rare situation as home dog.  

I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICKS on Navy plus the points in an outright winner as our Pup of the Week.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top sportsbooks is offering the top rated sportsbooks.

Free College Football Pick: Navy +120Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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