College Football Expert Picks Victory Toledo Over Fresno For Saturday Afternoon

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, September 16, 2016 11:34 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 16, 2016 11:34 PM UTC

Each week on these pages, I look for a play based on a combination of fundamentals, technicals, and situational analysis which point to a blowout of major proportions in this week’s contest for the best College Football pick.

2016 Football Selections on this site continue their solid start.  Through Wednesday, September 14th, NFL selections are 6-2 ATS, while College selections are 10-5 ATS.  That is good for a combined mark of 16-7 ATS (70%) winners!  Although selections may not continue at that torrid pace throughout the season, I assure you that, if you follow the advice embedded in my analyses this season, you will have a better chance to succeed in the pointspread wars.  Always remember to shop for value and to use the valuable resources at this site to put every edge in your favor this football season, don't forget to check the best sportsbooks to make your bet.


Fresno St. at Toledo (-20-)
The fortunes of Fresno have taken a major decline under 5th year HC Tim DeRuyter (the former Texas A&M defensive Asst.) authored combined seasons of 20-6 SU when he still had the talent that was left over from the Pat Hill era.  But since late 2013, his Bulldogs have gone just 10-20 SU, 10-18 ATS.  The offense has dipped from 43/547 in 2013 to 22/315 last season.  In an effort to shift the blame, DeRuyter has brought in new coordinators on each side of the ball.  It certainly did not help in the opener, when Fresno traveled to Nebraska for a 43-10 loss as 28 point road dog.  They were outrushed 292-31, a continuation of their 200 Club defense of the previous 2 seasons.  Last week, Fresno returned home for a meaningless game against Sacramento St. a (31-3) victory.  But, that does not figure to help them, as they travel 3 time zones east to face a hot Toledo team this week.  


The Rockets have not missed a beat under 1st year HC Jason Candle (the former OC under departed Matt Campbell).  With QB Woodside returning to form (after his red-shirt season of last), 4/5 OL starters back, and a pair of 900-yard RBs, Toledo has defeated Arkansas St. (31-10) and Maine (45-3).  Despite a combined (-4) net TO margin, the Rockets covered those games by 35 points.  The combined stats from that game are most impressive with the Rockets outgaining their opponents 1,072 to 501 yards.  That means Toledo is now on runs of 12-2 SU ATS, 1+Y as they enter today’s contest.  That momentum is way too much for a Fresno team to overcome who, under HC DeRuyter, is just 4-12 ATS recently in non-con games and on a 1-7 ATS slide as a road dog.


It all fits at a value price which is the same as an opening week.  No surprise to this bureau, if Toledo records a comfortable 4+ TD victory!  In a matchup of 2 teams headed opposite directions that can only be our CRUSHER OF THE WEEK. I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football pick on Toledo this afternoon.


Free College Football Pick: Toledo -1200
Best Line Offered: at The Greek which offers 100% Cash Bonus!

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