College Football Expert Picks Kansas St. To Put Oklahoma Sooner To The Test

Kansas State Wildcats Players Runniing In Celebration

Wednesday, October 12, 2016 9:18 PM GMT

Every week Joe Gavazzi isolates a game that features an underdog of 7 or more points that could keep the game close or even pull an upset. His college football picks in this column have been on point, here's this week's selection. 

 Kansas St. at Oklahoma (-10) Noon ET ESPN

The BIG DOG OF THE WEEK is a selection which isolates an underdog of 7 or more points, who I believe is capable of taking the game to the final whistle.  It has won each of the previous 2 weeks with the Northwestern Wildcats’ outright victory at Iowa and last week when Northern Illinois came in under the bloated number at W. Michigan.  Today, the selection is on a Kansas St. team, who has often appeared in this spot with great success over the years.

Much was expected of the Oklahoma Sooners, who began the 18th season under HC Stoops as a Top 5 team.  But an opening day loss to Houston, followed by a home loss to Ohio St. (45-24), has taken much of the air out of the balloon that was the Oklahoma season.  Even in rebounding for a 2-0 SU conference start against TCU and Texas, the Sooners were able to only escape with wins of 52-46 and 45-40.  That means in their last 3 contests, Oklahoma is allowing an average of 44 PPG.  Hardly the defensive numbers which provide confidence for a double-digit favorite, who has won by more than 6 points against only UL Monroe this season.  

Enter the Kansas St. Wildcats, who let us down last week, when they allowed Texas Tech to come through the back door in the 44-38 win, no cover.  But, that was in a role of significant favorite.  We are far more comfortable, as we have many times over the years, in backing veteran Kansas St. HC Snyder in the role of underdog.  Already this year, there have been road losses at Stanford and WVU.  Both of those, however, resulted in pointspread victories.  

For starters, this is a far healthier Kansas St. team, than the one who struggled down the stretch in an injury-plagued, depth-shy season of last. They had to win the last 3 games of the regular season to qualify for their 6th consecutive Bowl bid. This year, with more talent and better health on each side of the ball, there is renewed hope in Manhattan.  Motivation will certainly not be a problem for the Wildcats. In the nadir of their discontent on this very weekend last year, the Wildcats were scorched on their home field by this Oklahoma team (55-0), being outgained 568-110. That provides all the motivation Snyder and his minions will need, as they are 9-2 ATS with conference revenge.  If you are looking for more technical support, consider the long-term record of Snyder as an underdog (21-11 ATS). This includes a perfect 5-0 ATS of late when taking double digits in conference play.  Historically, the road team has now both won and covered the last 5 meetings in this series. Fundamentally, a year after the Wildcats were outgained by an average of 119 YPG, they have now held every team they have played to their low-water mark on offense. Outstanding BIG DOG selection on Kansas St.! I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Kansas St. this afternoon.

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Free College Football Pick: Kansas St. +10Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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