Top College Football Expert Bowl Picks for New Year's Day

Read on for our New Year's Day college football expert bowl picks for the best against the spread and Over/Under bets.

There are five college football games slated for New Year's Day. Our experts give picks and analysis for the Outback Bowl (Arkansas-Penn State), Fiesta Bowl (Oklahoma State-Notre Dame), Citrus Bowl (Kentucky-Iowa), Rose Bowl (Utah-Ohio State), and Sugar Bowl (Baylor-Ole Miss).

Here are the top ATS and O/U picks for the New Year's Day college football bowl games from our team of experts. Picks and odds via Denis Lipka (Draftkings and BetMGM), Matt Jordan (Draftkings), Mike Spector (Draftkings), and Dakota Cox (FanDuel Sportsbook).

Top New Year's Day College Football Bowl Picks

Outback Bowl

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ATS

Lipka:

This line has shifted a few points toward Penn State despite the Nittany Lions missing many key players due to opt-outs. Penn State had the athleticism to at least match up, if not be favored to win, prior to losing half their defense and best offensive playmaker. Now it's hard to give them the nod over an Arkansas team that pushed every opponent except Auburn to the brink of a loss, including Alabama.

Even with their own NFL-bound star receiver out, Arkansas' punishing run game and athletic pass defense will be a lot for Penn State to overcome. Expect the Razorbacks to continually bring heat on inconsistent Nittany Lions passer Sean Clifford and to force mistakes. This line may look considerably off if the Nittany Lions can't uncover surprise contributors deep on their roster.

Jordan:

I’m even heavier on Arkansas now. Why? 

The Nittany Lions will be without superstar receiver Jahan Dotson and arguably their three best defensive players in linebackers Brandon Smith and Ellis Brooks, and safety Jaquan Brisker. 

Now lineman Derrick Tangelo has also opted out. He started every game this season while totaling 30 tackles, 14 quarterback pressures, and one sack.

Spector:

Arkansas comes into this game with plenty of momentum after winning won four of their last five contests, with the only loss in that span coming by seven points at Alabama. Additionally, being without Dotson will be too much for Penn State to overcome.

Cox:

Arkansas produced a solid season, and the Razorbacks were competitive in most of their losses. The SEC has produced a bad record in bowl games so far, but this clash comes down to motivation.

Penn State entered the season with higher expectations. Meanwhile, Arkansas should be focused as the team tries to build on its success this campaign.

SEE ALSO: Outback Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

With so many defenders out for Penn State, expect both teams to be hunting for big plays. The Nittany Lions showed solid offensive upside in several games throughout the year, and Arkansas will give up points against good passing attacks. Clifford isn't a consistently great playmaker, but he allows his receivers to finish at the catch point for big gains.

Arkansas will do its fair share of scoring too. The Razorbacks scored 23-plus points in all but one game since Oct. 2 thanks to star quarterback K.J. Jefferson. Penn State won't stop the elusive dual-threat from leading scoring drives.

Jordan:

There’s plenty of talent on a Penn State defense that allowed just 16.8 points per game this season. The Hogs, meanwhile, surrendered 24 points per game. Then you subtract two electric offensive players in Penn State’s Dotson (91 receptions, 1,182 yards, 12 TDs) and Arkansas wideout Treylon Burks (66 receptions, 1,104 yards, 11 TDs).

The Under is 5-1 in Penn State’s past six.

Spector:

Arkansas boasts an explosive offense that's scored 31-plus points in five of the team's last seven games. Meanwhile, the Over has cashed in each of Penn State’s last four bowl games.

Cox:

Neither team is known for electric offensive play, and the half point is carrying a lot of weight here. A traditional total of 48 would be six touchdowns and a couple of field goals, and 49 would be seven touchdowns. But both teams will settle for red-zone field goals.

Fiesta Bowl Picks

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ATS

Lipka:

Armed with one of the few elite defenses in the nation thanks to their aggressive nature and veteran experience, the Cowboys contain every offense they face. They rank eighth in scoring, 10th in passing yards allowed, and fifth in rushing yards given up despite playing in the Big 12.

The pressure will be on Irish quarterback Jack Coan to be excellent. Credit needs to go to Coan for his growth away from Wisconsin, as he proved to be a viable starter after disappointing often in his previous stop. In no world did I expect a completion rate of 67%, 8.3 yards per attempt, 20 touchdowns, and five picks from him. But the uptick in competition will test him, and the Fighting Irish's passing game often bogged down against quality competition.

Jordan:

When the bowl schedule was released, I was on Notre Dame because of its coaching continuity with defensive coordinator Marcus Freeman replacing the departed Brian Kelly. However, now I'm leaning toward the Cowboys because the Irish have lost probably their best offensive player (running back Kyren Williams) and defensive player (safety Kyle Hamilton) after they opted out. 

In addition, Pokes top running back Jaylen Warren says he should be fully healthy after missing the Big 12 title game loss to Baylor. OSU is 9-1-1 ATS over its past 11 games.

Spector:

Notre Dame faced the unique challenge of prepping for its biggest game of the season with a first-time head coach who's never prepared a team for a bowl. 

And without Williams, the Fighting Irish will struggle to score against a stout Oklahoma State defense.

Cox:

Notre Dame is the most volatile team right now. While they should rally around a new head coach, I don’t see the Fighting Irish covering. They only faced one true test this year, and it resulted in a loss.

SEE ALSO: Fiesta Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

Coan threw for no more than 223 yards against Purdue, Wisconsin, Cincinnati, Virginia Tech, USC, North Carolina, and Virginia. The Irish don't depend on the senior, and now they'll need him to step up without his usual help. That will limit their ability to score.

Then there are the Cowboys, who don't score effectively. Their passing game is subpar and barely functional at times. Notre Dame's 10th-ranked scoring defense isn't quite as good as their foe's unit, but they're able to bring pressure and force turnovers well enough.

Jordan:

Oklahoma State leads the nation in sacks and tackles for a loss, and it's also among the FBS leaders in third-down defense (No. 2), total defense (No. 3), rushing defense (No. 5), fourth-down defense (No. 6), scoring defense (No. 8), first-down defense (No. 8) and passing yards allowed (No. 12). 

The Pokes have allowed just seven offensive touchdowns over their past 24 quarters. The Irish played without Hamilton for a chunk of the season while he was injured, so there won’t be an adjustment required. In the school's final four games, Notre Dame held its opponent below either 100 yards rushing or passing.

The Under is 5-2 in Notre Dame’s past seven as a favorite.

Spector: 

I'm not sure where points come from in this matchup, with both Oklahoma State and Notre Dame ranking in the top nine in the country in scoring defense. 

Additionally, Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders has struggled to protect the ball during the team’s biggest games.

Cox:

Both squads will be trying to make a statement with offensive play, and each team should be able to score 20-plus points. This is an incredibly low total, and I like the Over.

SEE ALSO: All College Football Betting Odds, Lines, and Picks

Citrus Bowl Picks

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Lipka:

There's not much to like about Iowa's outlook entering this game. And yet, Kentucky is favored by only three points. Kentucky's phenomenal rushing game will help the Wildcats avoid Iowa's deadly secondary, and they're more than willing to eat the clock and sustain drives. Iowa wants to do the same but is undermanned.

Iowa's star rusher Tyler Goodson opted out, leaving the 104th-ranked offense even thinner. This game has major blowout potential.

Jordan:

I prefer the moneyline rather than giving three points to Iowa and risking the push in what figures to be a low-scoring game. I’m not sure how much Iowa will be motivated when it had a chance to play in the Rose Bowl, but then Michigan obliterated the Hawkeyes in the Big Ten title game. 

Meanwhile, Kentucky could reach 10 victories for only the second time since 1978.

Spector:

Iowa had won its previous four games before the Big Ten championship, and they own wins over Penn State, Iowa State, and Minnesota. Head coach Kirk Ferentz is coaching in his 18th bowl game, and that experience will be a massive advantage for the Hawkeyes.

Cox:

Iowa’s offense was weak all year, but the school still managed to notch many victories. Kentucky struggled too, and the SEC’s record in bowl games is worrisome.

Underdogs have done well so far this bowl season, and that should continue here. Neither team has been spectacular, but Iowa has been executing better in key moments.

SEE ALSO: Citrus Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

I don't see where Iowa's offense comes from without Goodson creating extra yards with his speed, power, and feel for the game. Quarterback Spencer Petras is as inconsistent as any passer in the nation, and Kentucky's defense will simply stack the box and dare his receivers to win against better athletes.

Kentucky will struggle too. Will Levis is a confident, strong-armed passer who can get into trouble with careless interceptions. Watch for the star duo of rusher Christopher Rodriguez and Wan'Dale Robinson to find enough space to score, but the Over still won't hit.

Jordan:

This could be the lowest-scoring bowl game. Iowa's excellent defense leads the country with a school-record 24 interceptions, and it ranks third nationally in takeaways (30). 

Eleven different Hawkeyes have recorded at least one interception. Offensively, I don’t see the Hawkeyes doing much without Goodson (1,151 yards, six TDs), and with a wildly inaccurate Petras, who was benched late in the season only to earn his job back. Iowa has been held to single-digit points three times this year.

Spector:

Most people think of Iowa as a low-scoring team that wants to limit possessions and turn every game into a defensive struggle. 

However, each of Iowa’s last four games has totaled 45-plus points, and Kentucky comes into this game averaging 46 points over the Wildcats' previous four contests. This game will exceed a relatively low total.

Cox:

Neither offense adds spark to this game, and the clash will likely get ugly. Turnovers will be in abundance, and it will turn into a game of field position. 

I don’t see either offense making elite plays, and the Under will hit in this college football bowl pick.

Rose Bowl

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ATS

Lipka:

It's easy to get caught up in Ohio State's plethora of missing stars due to opt-outs. But the Buckeyes are blessed with an incredibly deep roster. Utah hasn't seen an offense even half as talented as this one, and the Buckeyes notoriously play well under Ryan Day in bowl games.

The Utes' best option is to hope the young Buckeyes self-implode and lose confidence. Establishing the run is the obvious key, but they must also not be bulldozed on the other side of the ball, as TreVeyon Henderson is an elite young back. I don't see that happening, and the Buckeyes will win comfortably in this play for our college football bowl picks.

Jordan:

I should have backed the Utes when this line opened at +7, as I had a feeling some key Buckeyes might opt out. Now star receivers Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave won't play, in addition to left tackle Nicholas Petit-Frere and defensive tackle Haskell Garrett. 

I’m not sure how much Ohio State wants to be in the Rose Bowl when everyone expected a trip to the College Football Playoff. Meanwhile, this game is massive for the Utes, as it's their first time playing in the Rose Bowl. They have a handful of guys going pro, but they're all playing on Saturday. This one is all about motivation.

Spector:

Opt-outs are impacting Ohio State more than any other team. Ohio State struggled with Michigan’s physicality during its regular-season finale, and Utah is one of the country's most physical teams.

Cox:

This is one of my most confident picks of bowl season. Utah has produced an elite record in bowl games, and the Utes are always focused. They boast a stout defense, and Utah will be ready for the moment.

The motivation scale tips toward Utah in this play for our college football bowl picks, and I would consider making a moneyline bet on the Utes.

SEE ALSO: Rose Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

Between Ohio State's still extraordinarily talented offense and inconsistent defense, there's a good chance this game gets out of hand with both teams producing big plays. The Buckeyes will utilize several young receivers who would be stars at any school in the country, so they'll still be able to score. The question is whether Utah will keep up.

The Utes have shown more offensive life this season as the year progressed thanks to a nasty rushing attack that Tavion Thomas leads. Ohio State's horrible run defense is as vulnerable as ever, and that will help push this total Over in our college football bowl picks.

Jordan:

Michigan, Nebraska, and Penn State all showed how to slow down the nation’s No. 1 offense, and now you can subtract nearly 2,000 receiving yards and 25 touchdowns from Ohio State with Wilson and Olave gone. Utah is going to play ball control and keep CJ Stroud and Co. off the field. 

The Utes are averaging 216.1 rushing yards per game (13th in the FBS) while holding opponents to just 120.1 (20th in the FBS). They also led the Pac-12 in defensive pass efficiency. Finally, Utah ranks 11th in the FBS in sacks (3.23) and 12th in tackles for a loss (7.4) per game.

Spector:

Despite being without the team's top two wide receivers, Ohio State head coach Ryan Day will find a way to put points on the board. However, the Buckeyes are in for a long game defensively. 

The Buckeyes were gashed for 297 rushing yards and 7.2 yards per carry during their regular-season finale. Utah’s punishing ground game and relentless physicality will wear down Ohio State’s defensive front.

Cox:

Ohio State boasts depth, but its chemistry and top-level talent will be gone. The returning players will also be trying to avoid injuries against an aggressive Utah defense. 

Unless Utah’s offense fires on all cylinders, the Under should hit. I don’t see this turning into a shootout. Both offenses are capable of that, but it won’t happen here.

SEE ALSO: All College Football Picks

Sugar Bowl Picks

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Lipka:

Ole Miss holds the distinct advantage in star power with potential first-rounder Matt Corral, explosive rusher Jerrion Ealy, pass-rushing demons Chance Campbell and Sam Williams, and playmaking safety A.J. Finley.

Nevertheless, the combination of head coach Lane Kiffin and Corral are the headliners after they produced one of the scariest offenses in the nation. Ole Miss ranked 121st in time of possession, but the Rebels' offense managed to finish as a top-26 unit in every category. Only Auburn and Alabama limited Ole Miss in a meaningful way.

Meanwhile, Baylor boasts a terrific running back in Abram Smith in addition to the Bears' own playmaking linebackers. Smith will be counted on to carve up the nation's 101st-ranked rushing defense.

Jordan:

The spread is just one point, so we’ll do the moneyline. It's tough to get a grasp on this game, as I’ve undervalued Baylor all season. Quarterback Gerry Bohanon missed the final two games while injured, including the Big 12 title win over Oklahoma State. But he'll start this one. 

Baylor is light years better defensively than Ole Miss, but the Rebels are far superior offensively. It'll be Dave Aranda against Lane Kiffin with their scheming. Lean toward the team with the better quarterback, and that’s Ole Miss. The Rebels are 5-0-1 ATS in their past six non-conference games.

Spector:

Baylor maintains a significant advantage up front, and the Bears will harass Corral. One of the biggest reasons for Ole Miss’ recent struggles offensively was the Rebels' inability to protect Corral. He's been hit 195 times, the 13th-most among FBS quarterbacks. Baylor ranked second in the Big 12 with 32 sacks, and the Bears' defense features four players with four-plus sacks on the season. Corral also hasn't been able to escape pressure as easily with an ankle injury limiting his mobility.

The Bears will ride their defense to a Sugar Bowl victory.

Cox:

Ole Miss will cover because of Corral. He’s a dual-threat quarterback who can make a statement before the NFL draft. Kiffin will empty the playbook and show off Corral’s strengths, which will lead to a win.

Baylor is coming off an emotional Big 12 Championship game, and the team proved it's tough. Still, Ole Miss will win for our college football bowl picks by at least a field goal.

SEE ALSO: Sugar Bowl Picks

O/U

Lipka:

The Rebels' defense has dramatically improved since last year, when it allowed nearly 40 points per game. Ole Miss has held five of its last six opponents to 21 points or less, with all but one of those contests coming in SEC play. The Rebels will find Baylor challenging, but not nearly as dynamic or explosive as their SEC foes.

For Baylor, it's all about a defense that led the Big 12 with 16 interceptions. The Bears also allowed just 19.2 points per game, and hybrid defensive back/linebacker Jalen Pitre anchors the unit. Pitre was the conference defensive player of the year, and he could be tasked with spying on Corral.

Jordan:

I won often while taking Unders in Ole Miss games this season as the Rebels' offense slowed in the second half with Corral a bit banged up. Baylor has seen an offense like this one when it held the Sooners to just 14 points.

The Bears' defense is holding opponents to 12.1 points per game below those teams' scoring averages in all other games, and Baylor is one of six teams to not allow more than 30 points yet. The Bears have also forced a turnover in 19 straight games.

The Under is 4-0 in the Bears’ past four. It’s 7-0 in the Rebels’ past four.

Spector:

After starting the year with 43 points in four of their first five games, the high-powered Ole Miss offense didn't top 31 points the rest of the season. The Rebels struggled with the SEC’s most dominant defenses, with Alabama holding them to 291 yards and 2.3 yards per carry. 

Baylor’s defense isn't thought of on the same level as Alabama’s unit, but the Bears rank 14th in the country in scoring defense (19.2 points allowed per game) and rank 16th in rushing yards allowed per contest. Kiffin’s offense is most successful when it achieves balance, and Baylor will take that away.

Cox:

Ole Miss’s offense will be firing on all cylinders in Corral’s final game. There will be schemes to get receivers open in space, and a healthy Corral can make the plays necessary to win.

The team's defense is improved, but Baylor should be able to keep up for the first half. The Over will hit for our college football bowl picks with this average total. It won’t be an absolute shootout, but Ole Miss scoring 35 should be enough.

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