College Football by the Numbers: Week 10 Betting Bedlam

Jay Pryce

Sunday, November 5, 2017 1:51 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 5, 2017 1:51 PM UTC

Home underdogs are making bettors rich in recent weeks. See what we mean here, and gain insight into other notable trends, achievements, and factoids from the market in this Week 10 action recap.

For the fourth week in a row, home underdogs proved profitable against the spread, going 10-6-3 overall. They failed to tally a winning Saturday through any of the first six. The record makes home pups 49-34-4 versus the number in the second half of the season, after compiling a cash-burning 36-66-2 mark to begin the year.

The most profitable moneymaker in this span is to play shorter-priced underdogs straight up. Those spotted less than a touchdown on the odds board have won 16 of 34 matchups at a +4.1 average line.

Week 10 Betting Trends

Number of outright underdog winners: 17

Average line among underdog winners: +5.8

Favorites went 26-30-4 ATS

Home teams went 31-25-4 ATS

‘Unders’ went 30-30-2. They are 344-281-14 on the season for total bettors' college football picks.

Wyoming and Boston College carry the nation’s longest ATS win streak into Week 11 with six straight covers apiece. Ball State, meanwhile, is on the other end of the spectrum with seven losses in a row to the number. The Cardinals have allowed 55 points or more in three of their last four contests.

Iowa was this week’s offensive juggernaut, scoring 37.5 points above its projected team total. The Hawkeyes shocked No. 3 Ohio State 55-24 as 20-point underdogs with a 55 game total. It was the second most points allowed by the Buckeyes since 1980 (Penn State, 63, 1994).

Air Force fell flattest offensively, shutout by Army 21-0 at home. The market projected Air Force to score 30 points as 6-point chalk with a 54 over-under. The Black Knights owned the clock with 35:20 time of possession. They did not even attempt a pass in the game, becoming the first FBS team since Air Force in 2012 to do so.

Money Line Stunners

Iowa +900 vs. No. 3 Ohio State (55-24)

No. 24 Michigan State +275 vs. No. 7 Penn State (27-24)

Louisiana-Monroe +260 vs, Appalachian State (52-45)

Virginia +250 vs. Georgia Tech (40-36)

Army +200 vs. Air Force (21-0)

Florida International +200 vs. UTSA (14-7)

Public Lashings

Nearly 88 percent of ATS tickets across multiple top-rated online sportsbooks backed Arkansas in its narrow 39-38 win over Coastal Carolina. The Razorbacks kicked off as whopping 24.5-point favorites versus the first-year FBS program. The Chanticleers owned a 92.3 percent win probability early in the fourth quarter with a 38-25 lead, but Arkansas rallied with a pair of touchdowns late to salvage the win. 

Red-hot Notre Dame disappointed roughly 76 percent of spread bettors in its 48-37 win over Wake Forest. The Fighting Irish went off 16-point chalk, their fifth time laying double-digit points this season. They covered each of the last four by 12.1 points per game prior to Saturday.

Almost 76 percent of spread bets supported South Alabama as a 6.5-point favorite in its home date against Sun Belt rivals Louisiana-Lafayette. The Ragin’ Cajuns served up some massive indigestion with a 19-14 straight-up win. The Jaguars have lost three of the last four meetings despite an average line of pick ‘em in this span.

Notable Stats, Trends, & More

No. 3 Ohio State’s disastrous 55-24 loss at Iowa was its worst ever under head coach Urban Meyer according to the odds board. The Buckeyes went off 21-point favorites, topping last year’s 24-21 stunner at Penn State as 18-point chalk. Meyer has suffered just eight defeats as favorite since taking over in 2012, four times spotting double digits.

No. 7 Penn State is now 2-14 SU and 3-13 ATS on the road against ranked opponents in its last 16 attempts after losing 27-24 at No. 24 Michigan State Saturday. The Nittany Lions are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS under head coach James Franklin in this spot.

No. 8 Oklahoma continued its mastery over No. 11 Oklahoma State in the Bedlam Series with a 62-52 win. The Sooners are 30-7 SU with one tie in the last 38 matchups. When each are ranked entering the rivalry, Oklahoma is 15-1 SU overall. Since 1980, the Sooners are a perfect 18-0 SU and 12-5-1 ATS when short-priced underdogs of less than a field goal or favorites laying two touchdowns or fewer.

No. 1 Alabama have dropped just one of its last 36 home games at Bryant-Denny Stadium following its 24-10 disposal of No.19 LSU. Ole Miss (43-37) is the only opponent to pull off a stunner during this time back in 2015. The Crimson Tide have kicked off favorites in each by -29.9 average odds. The Rebels were just one of three visitors to go off with a single-digit line in this stretch. LSU (2015) and Mississippi State (2014) are the other two.

Northwestern needed extra time again in its 31-24 win over Nebraska. The Wildcats are the only FBS team to play three overtime games in a row. Since 1999, they are 12-6 SU and 13-5 ATS when taking the game beyond regulation time.

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