College Football Betting: Week 7 Numbers Recap

CFB PIcks

Jay Pryce

Sunday, October 15, 2017 12:43 PM GMT

Sunday, Oct. 15, 2017 12:43 PM GMT

It was Upset City in Week 7 of the 2017-18 college football season. Read about the weekend full of stunners here, including a recap of notable trends, achievements, and other factoids from the betting market.

Let’s go ahead and declare Week 7 of the 2017 college football season one of the best ever for upsets. First some context; there were zero ranked matchups on the schedule. One has to go back to Week 12 of the 2009 season the last time this occurred. Essentially, it was supposed to be a cakewalk week for the nation’s best. Now the payoff: seven AP top-25 teams suffered defeat, including four from the top-10. Some losses were darn right shockers. Three of the six biggest defeats against the spread among ranked teams this year occurred this weekend, including No. 2 Clemson (-23.5) losing to Syracuse 27-24 and No. 8 Washington State (16.5) falling at Cal 37-3 on Friday night, and No. 5 Washington (-18) slipping up 13-7 at Arizona State late Saturday.

Week 7 Betting Trends

Number of outright underdog winners: 18

Average line among underdog winners: +9.2

Favorites went 24-33-1 ATS

Home teams went 28-28-1 ATS

‘Unders’ went 34-22-2. They are 257-193-7 on the season.

Fresno State owns the longest ATS streak in the nation with six straight covers. BYU has failed to beat the number seven games in a row dating back to 2016.

Houston, Akron, and Troy have yet to play in game going ‘over’ the total in 2017.

Away favorites are cashing at a 60.5 percent clip in 2017, going 75-49-3 ATS. Defense is doing the trick. The ‘under’ is 80-46-1 in these contests. Home chalk, in contrast, are 126-175-10 ATS.

Ole Miss scored 27 more points than projected in its 57-35 home victory over Vanderbilt, the most of any FBS team in Week 7. The Rebels went off as 3.5-point chalk with a 57 total.

Cal, on the other hand, allowed the fewest in market predictions, holding No. 8 Washington State to 31 points below expectations in its 37-3 upset. The Golden Bears kicked off 14-point underdogs with a 54.5 total on most betting odds boards.

Public Lashings

Northern Illinois received 81 percent backing ATS across multiple top-rated online sportsbooks headed into its MAC clash at upstart Buffalo. The Bulls covered as 8-point underdogs in a 14-13 loss that witnessed a scoreless second half. Buffalo is 6-0-1 ATS on the year, one of two FBS teams (Fresno State) with six ATS wins overall.

Colorado also took 81 percent of ATS tickets as 10-point chalk at Oregon State. The Buffaloes hung on for a 36-33 win after a 13-yard TD catch by Bryce Bobo with 1:34 left in regulation. The Beavers, despite losing head coach Gary Anderson suddenly last week, are now 9-3 ATS in their last 12 conference contests.

The public propped up No. 10 Auburn up with 73 percent of ATS tickets in its showdown with LSU. The Bengal Tigers shocked 27-23 as 6.5-point pups. Auburn pounced to a 20-0 lead to start the game, becoming the first top-10 team in the last three years to lose outright against an unranked opponent with a 20-point lead or more. Previous programs were 182-0 SU when getting ahead by as much in this span.

Biggest Money Line Stunners

Syracuse +1400 vs. No. 2 Clemson

Boston College +725 vs. Louisville

Arizona State +700 vs. No. 5 Washington

Cal +575 vs. No. 8 Washington State

Tulsa +450 vs. HoustonSyracus

Notable Stats, Trends, & More

What does No.14 Oklahoma State’s 59-16 win over Baylor have in common with a Boeing 747? The number of course. That’s how many total yards the offense racked up in the victory, a program record. It’s the fourth time a Mike Gundy-coached unit has tallied 700 yards or more in a game. The Cowboys have covered the number by 17 points or more in each.

Nebraska went off 24.5-point underdogs versus No. 9 Ohio State, catching the most points at home in program history. They weren’t enough. The Buckeyes rolled 56-14, beating Big Ten opponents by 28 (Indiana), 56 (Rutgers), 48 (Maryland) and 42 (Nebraska) points this season.

No. 17 Michigan was flagged a record 16 times in its 27-20 win at Indiana. The constant stoppage of play helped push the score over a 43.5 game total. The Wolverines are now 4-0 to the ‘over’ in conference games under coach Jim Harbaugh when called for 7 or more penalties.

A trio of teams (Cal, Fresno State, Tulsa) covered the spread by more than five touchdowns this weekend, the most of any this season. Twelve teams have accomplished this feat in 2017, making it three years in a row with a dozen or more through Week 7.

The Washington-Arizona State and UTEP-Southern Miss. matchups each went under the total by more than four touchdowns. There have been 21 games to go this low, the most prior to Week 8 in a season in over a decade.

Arizona State’s 13-7 win over No. 5 Washington was its first over an AP top-five since topping No. 1 Nebraska in 1996. The Sun Devils, however, are 3-2 SU and ATS in its last five against top-10 opponents since 2014—two of the victories as double-digit underdogs.

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