College Football Betting: Week 3 Lines Likely To Move Late

Jay Pryce

Thursday, September 14, 2017 5:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 14, 2017 5:12 PM UTC

Bet now or catch the better number. That depends on your side. We are expecting some late action in these Week 3 matchups. Here’s why.

Louisiana Tech vs. Western Kentucky (-7)

Look for Louisiana Tech to take money late, moving the line closer to its -5 opener. The Hilltoppers-Bulldogs matchup has proven an up-tempo, offensive treat for fans in recent years, combining for 89.3 points per game over the last four meetings. But something is amiss with the Western Kentucky unit under new head coach Mike Sanford Jr. It’s averaging just 310 yards per game and has scored a total of 38 points through the first two contests, falling below team total projections by more than 20 points in each. The Hilltoppers are going to have to right the ship, and quickly, to top a Skip Holtz-led attack averaging 44.3, 37.5, and 37.4 points per game over the last three seasons. The wise guys will take notice. You can bet on that.

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UCLA (-3) vs. Memphis

The UCLA-Memphis matchup has slipped below the key number of a field goal at some sportsbooks to 2.5 points after a 4-point opener in favor of the Bruins in the college football odds. More than 88 percent of the spread bets are backing the Bruins, but sharp money is forcing books to adjust with the Tigers. UCLA is off to a scorching start, putting up 45 and 56 points in its first two games behind future NFL QB Josh Rosen’s 9 TD passes. The public is drooling. A flood of tickets will raise the line back to its initial offer by kickoff.

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Ole Miss (-4) vs. California

Some models suggest the wrong team is favored in this one with Ole Miss laying 4 points versus Cal. In their last 10 games, the Rebels are 2-8 ATS, failing to cover the number by 12.0 points per game. That’s the worst margin for any FBS team during this span. This program is under a widespread NCAA investigation and saw their head coach fired for an escort phone scandal. Ole Miss’ disappointment in the betting market will only grow greater. More than 70 percent of money line bets are on the Golden Bears for a price. Look for this momentum to carry over to spread bets late with the line dropping back nearer its 2.5 opener.

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Tulsa vs. Toledo (-9)

The line swelled to -10 days after oddsmakers initially offered Toledo as a touchdown favorite over Tulsa. The volatile number is being dealt anywhere form -8 to -9.5 across books on Thursday. Look for this number to settle closer to its opening target come kickoff.

The Rockets are the cream of the crop in the MAC, but there’s a decent talent gap between the conference and that of the AAC. In 14 head-to-head matchups, the MAC is 2-12 SU, losing by 16.2 points per game. The average line is +15.0 points. This matchup, as well as the Miami OH-Cincinnati tussle on Saturday, which sees the RedHawks gifting 5.5-points, is the only meetings where MAC programs will go off favorites. Sharp bettors will move the number closer to the Golden Hurricane. 

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