College Football Betting - The Odds vs. The Playmakers - Part 2

Alabama Crimson Tide

Doug Upstone

Thursday, August 25, 2016 6:02 PM GMT

In Part 2 of NCAAF betting - The Odds versus The Playmakers - we take a look at the rest of the conferences and teams and compare the odds against players from squads with All-Conference potential.

Years ago I struck a friendship with a Big Ten scout (since retired) and he taught me various elements about players at all the starting positions and came up with a methodology. Having learned this, I began to compare against the college football odds what teams had the most playmakers and how that stacked up versus the odds to win the conference.

While these are subjective, the potential is in place to find over and underrated teams and numbers are based on point value system.

Here is Part 2, with the odds courtesy of 5Dimes and know Independents are not included because they do not play in a conference.

**Check Out Part 1 By Clicking Here**

 

Pac-12 Conference

North Division

1) Washington (20.5) +320 

2) Stanford (16.5) +335

3) Washington State (12.5) +1550

4) Oregon (10.5) +570

5) California (2.5) +6000

6) Oregon State (0.5) +27500

 

South Division

1) USC (27) +605 odds

2) Utah (21) +1475

3) UCLA (20.5) +495

4) Arizona State (8) +2100

5) Colorado (1.5) +11000

6) Arizona (0.5)  +3000

Pac-12 Analysis – The most popular choices to win the divisions are Washington and UCLA according to most preseason magazines the odds reflect that. While the Huskies show up well in the North Division, the Bruins are not receiving the same love in the South. Overall, our numbers say USC and Utah have a few more playmakers which could be the difference. In all my years of doing this, I have never seen Oregon down this far when talking about difference-makers, flat out stunning. That does not mean the Ducks are still not good, just not as previous levels.

 

 

Conference USA

East Division

1) Western Kentucky (20) +385 odds

2) Marshall (14) +350

3) Old Dominion (12.5) +4000

4) Mid. Tennessee St. (12) +625

5) Florida Atlantic (2) +2500

6) Florida International (1) +5000

7) Charlotte (6.5) +21000

 

West Division

1) Southern Miss (20) +260 odds

2) Louisiana Tech (16) +825

3) UTEP (7) +3600

4) UT-San Antonio (5) +15000

5) Rice (4.5) +2500

6) North Texas (1.5) +20000

C-USA Analysis- About the only real surprise is this ended up having Western Kentucky over Marshall in the East. The Hilltoppers lost their three-year starting quarterback which has to hurt but has improved depth in the program. Certainly worth following, much like if Old Dominion can match ranking despite odds and should be a team to follow for college football picks. Southern Miss looks very much like the team to beat in C-USA West. with Louisiana Tech possibly to challenge them.

 

 

MAC

East Division

1) Bowling Green (19.5) +645 odds

2) Kent State(15) +1550

3) Ohio U. (7.5) +850

4) Akron (7) +924

5) Miami-O (7) +1900

6) Buffalo (4.5) +1700

 

West Division

1) Western Michigan (21) +295 odds

2) Northern Illinois (20.5) +565

3) Toledo (20) +620

4) Ball State (10.5) +5000

5) Central Michigan (10) +725

6) Eastern Michigan (4) +15000

MAC Analysis- Similar to last season, the MAC West looks a street fight and there is not much to choose among the three contenders. Western Michigan would seem to have the edge because they have home games against both Northern Illinois and Toledo. Bowling Green is thought to be the class of the East again but has to survive coaching change. If not, Ohio U. is a definite threat. Kent State has a great deal of defense talent returning and if the offense is as improved, they could well cover more spreads than expected.

 

 

Mountain West Conference

Mountain Division

1) Boise State (22) +152 odds

2) Utah State (13) +1300

3) Air Force (12.5) +775

4) Wyoming (13.5) +8500

5) Colorado State (8.5) +2400

6) New Mexico (8) +2600

 

West Division

1) San Diego State (27) +280 odds

2) San Jose State (12) +1125

3) Nevada (11) +1450

4) UNLV (11) +3800

5) Hawai'i (5.5) +7000

6) Fresno State (0.5) +4400

Mountain West Analysis – It is a given Boise State is going to be a favorite in this league, as they have a program set up to recruit well in California and throughout the West. San Diego State has narrowed the gap and is the defending MWC champions and if they can win at Northern Illinois in the middle of September, there is a train of thought the Aztecs would have a legitimate chance to be 12-0 going into conference title tilt this season. Otherwise, Wyoming has good players at several positions but unless a quarterback emerges, could be another long season in Laramie.

 

 

SEC

East Division

1) Tennessee (22) +405 odds

2) Florida (10.5) +1500

3) Georgia (7) +1075

4) Vanderbilt (10.5) +4000

5) Missouri (1.5) +12500

6) South Carolina (1.5) +17500

7) Kentucky (1) +22500

 

West Division

1) Alabama (30.5) +187 odds

2) LSU (25) +405

3) Mississippi (12) +1350

4) Texas A&M (7) +2650

5) Auburn (8.5) +2650

6) Arkansas (5.5) +2650

7) Miss. State (3.5) +5000

SEC Analysis- Realistically, the SEC has three teams that people will be talking about, Alabama, LSU, and Tennessee. The latter two have something to prove on principle given recent play. The next rung down actually is quite a few rungs down and Florida and Mississippi look to be the best of the next trio. After that, get a net, as the order of how the rest of the squads will finish is mostly guess work. If your Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina or Auburn, 2016 could be a long year and seeing Mizzou and the Gamecocks have new head coaches, they will get a one year pass, not so sure that would happen in Lexington or on the plains of Alabama.