College Football Betting: Talent Disparity & Revenge Prompts Boise St. Over Utah St. Pick

Ross Benjamin

Friday, September 30, 2016 5:28 PM UTC

Friday, Sep. 30, 2016 5:28 PM UTC

Our college football handicapping professional previews this Saturday’s game between Utah State and Boise State. The Broncos' are currently laying 21.5 points across the board, and with revenge on their minds, defense will be out to suffocate the Aggies game. 


Utah State vs. Boise State

#24 Boise State (3-0) hosts Utah State (2-2) on Saturday night in a Mountain West Conference game. The opening kickoff at Albertsons Stadium is slated for 10:15 PM ET. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.

Current (9/29) college football betting odds at BetDSI has Boise State as a 19.5-point favorite. BetDSI is presently offering matching 100% cash bonuses on deposits for all new customers.


Series Review

Boise State will have revenge on their minds as a result of last season’s 52-26 loss at Utah State. The final score of that game was a bit deceiving. The Aggies were beneficiaries of 8 Boise State turnovers. Prior to that defeat, the Broncos had defeated Utah State 12 consecutive times and went 11-1 ATS during those contests.


Aggies Ground Game

Utah State averaged 313 yards rushing per game in their wins over Weber State and Arkansas State. However, in the Aggies losses to USC and Air Force, they averaged a pathetic 45.5 yards rushing per game. If the Aggies hope to be competitive on Saturday night, they’ll need at least moderate success running the football. Considering they’ll be facing a Boise State defense that’s allowing 72.3 yards rushing per game, and is holding opponents to a measly 2.6 yards per attempt, it certainly shapes up as a difficult task.


Survive and Advance

Although Boise State has won their first 3 games of the season, they still have much to improve upon. The Broncos did open the year with a convincing 45-10 win at UL-Lafayette, and easily covered as a 19.0-point favorite. Nevertheless, they failed to cover in its previous 2 wins against Washington State and Oregon State. The underlying factor for those non-covers was turnovers. Boise State turned the ball over 5 times and only forced 2 turnovers themselves. If they can clean up their ball security issues on Saturday, the Broncos are clearly a much better team than Utah State and will win this game by a decisive margin.

 College Football Betting Angle and Pick

Boise State is coming off a 38-24 win at Oregon State in their previous game. Nonetheless, they failed to cover as a 17.0-point favorite. Utah State is coming off a 27-20 home loss to Air Force and failed to cover as a 5.0 point underdogs. The combination of the college football odds on this contest and each team’s previous game results fits perfectly into a successful betting angle illustrated below.

Any conference favorite of 14.0 or more (Boise State), coming off a win in which they failed to cover by 15.5 points or less, versus an opponent (Utah State) coming off a home underdog ATS loss, resulted in those sizable home favorites going 43-22 ATS (66.2%) since 1980.

Boise State’s defense will suffocate the Aggies running game. The Utah State passing attack isn’t strong enough to overcompensate for that deficiency, and Boise State’s offense will score plenty of points. I have a lean toward the home favorite, and one of my college football week 5 picks will support precisely that.


Free College Football Pick: Boise State -19.5
Best Line Offered:at Heritage

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