College Football Betting: Pick Oklahoma -10 To Cover In Red River Rivalry

Charlie Strong taking into mic

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 8:55 PM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2016 8:55 PM UTC

No FBS coach needs a victory more this weekend than Texas' Charlie Strong, but I don't see him getting it in the Red River Rivalry against No. 20 Oklahoma in Dallas. The Sooners are -10 on college football odds.

 Longhorns' Defense Now Run By Strong

The big story in college football this week has been all the rumors surrounding Strong. It now seems a fait accompli that he's fired after the season, although numerous reports are that Texas won't make a move during the season like LSU did with Les Miles. However, if the Horns don't want Strong they might be smart to fire him after this game if UT loses because Texas reportedly badly wants University of Houston coach Tom Herman and so does LSU. It can help your program to get an early start on a coaching search. It did for Florida years ago when it beat out Notre Dame for Urban Meyer.

Texas (2-2, 0-1 Big 12) lost a second straight last week, 49-31. The Longhorns had 568 yards of offense and 329 on the ground but allowed the Cowboys 555 yards. The offense was the issue last year, but that unit has been great in 2016. It's the defense, Strong's specialty, that has been a disaster. It was the third time this season an opponent scored at least 47.

On Monday, Strong announced he had demoted defensive coordinator Vance Bedford and Strong himself, a former coordinator at South Carolina and Florida, will take over. The Oklahoma depth chart features a handful of new starters. Something had to be done as Texas is last in the Big 12 in defense and has forced one turnover all season. Strong has demoted coordinators left and right since arriving in Austin and it hasn't helped much in season.

Texas' top two running backs, Chris Warren and D'Onta Foreman, left the OSU game with injuries. It appears only Foreman will play this week. He has 62 carries for 436 yards and five scores. Right guard Kent Perkins is back after being suspended vs. OSU.

UT is 2-2 ATS on college football odds and 3-1 O/U.

 Sooners Still Can Reach One Goal

No. 20 Oklahoma (2-2, 1-0 Big 12) won't be going to the College Football Playoff with those two losses, but the Sooners can still win the Big 12 and play in New Year's Six bowl game. And I believe they will win the conference barring major injury. OU has only three true road games left: Texas Tech, Iowa State and West Virginia and thus should be favored in every game the rest of the regular season. Only WVU and No. 13 Baylor (in Norman on Nov. 12) are ranked on Oklahoma's remaining schedule.

Last week coming off a bye, Oklahoma escaped at No. 21 TCU, 52-46. The Sooners trailed 21-7 at the end of a quarter and then outscored TCU 42-3 through the third quarter. The Frogs scored the first three TDs of the fourth, the last a 74-yard TD catch with 5:36 left. But Oklahoma added a 35-yard field goal with  1:55 to go and was able to stop TCU on its final drive of the game. The Sooners had 534 yards on offense. Baker Mayfield threw for 274 and two scores while running for two more, and the excellent tailback duo of Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine totaled 203 yard and three scores.

OU got some bad news this week when starting linebacker Tay Evans was forced to end his career due to concussions. He played the first three games then sat out vs. TCU.

Oklahoma and Texas have split the past 10 in this series. Last year, OU was ranked No. 10 and a 16-point favorite but lost 24-17 to the unranked Horns. That remains Strong's biggest win, but UT is just 5-5 since. Texas gored Oklahoma with 313 yards rushing. Foreman had 117 yards on nine carries. Mayfield threw for only 211 yards and a TD.

The Sooners are 1-3 ATS on college football picks and 3-1 O/U.

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NCAAF Free Picks: Texas hasn't won two straight vs. Oklahoma since 2008-09 and likely won't here. But I'd take the points. The Sooners are 0-5 ATS in their past five neutral-site games. Go 'over' that big total. It is 9-3 in OU's past 12 games. 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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