College Football Betting - Navy Midshipmen vs South Florida Bulls

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, October 25, 2016 6:09 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 25, 2016 6:09 PM UTC

No. 22 Navy travels to Tampa to take on AAC foe South Florida Friday night (7 p.m. ET). It should be a very interesting encounter to kick Friday night football. Chek out our free college football pick.

 Navy Midshipmen (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS)

Navy is 11-1 straight up and 9-3 against the spread in AAC play over the last two seasons, after stomping Memphis 42-28 as a 1-point favorite last weekend.

The line against South Florida is off the board as of publication with Bulls starting quarterback Quinton Flowers' status in doubt after injuring his hamstring against Temple. Navy covered a 7.5-point spread in last season’s matchup with a 29-17 victory at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium.

Navy rolls out a triple-option attack on offense, rushing the ball a whopping 56 times per contest. It runs on 79.8 percent of plays, second most nationally. More importantly, the offense accrues 4.8 yards per attempt and 266.4 rushing yards overall against FBS foes. Senior quarterback Will Worth is the catalyst of the attack, scoring at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season (9 total); he accounted for 5 scores in the Memphis victory.

Like last season, Navy is highly efficient in the passing game as defenses are caught off guard favoring the team's penchant to run. The Midshipmen’s 10.2 yards per passing attempt ranks fourth in college football, though it averages only 12 passes per game.

Defensively, Navy yields 26.8 points per game against FBS competition. It stuffs the run for 3.7 yards per carry, but is ineffective against the pass. It allows 8.6 yards per throw, 113th in the country.

South Florida Bulls (6-2 SU, 4-3-1 ATS)

Flowers is arguably the best player in Bulls history, leading an offense that has averaged 43.9 points per game in their last 12 played. A balanced attack has seen South Florida post 275.6 rushing yards and 229.9 passing per game in this stretch.

In 2016, the team’s 0.557 points per play ranks ninth best in efficiency in the country. The running game is most effective, picking up 6.2 yards per carry.

It’s a different story on defense against the rush, yielding 4.8 yards per carry. Overall, the Bulls allow 469.9 total yards per game against FBS opponents, struggling to get off the field. It’s 56.7 percent time of possession against ranks 119th in the nation.


Final Analysis

South Florida has squared off against three teams this year averaging more than 4.0 yards per carry entering the contest, getting steamrolled for 309 rushing yards per game. The defense has been unable to stop opponents from moving the chains in this situation, allowing 40.3 points per game overall. The Bulls, though, can light up the scoreboard as easily as any team in the nation, causing the total to sail over the number by an average of 14.5 points. For my college football pick, we’ll look at tailing OVER again hosting run-happy Navy, but only if Flowers is healthy.


Free College Football Pick: Over 63Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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