We are almost at the midway point of the 2014 college football season and here is an update on the national championship future odds with some nice-priced selections.
Following a wild Week 6 of college football that featured a slew of upsets of top ranked teams, this seems like a good time to take a look at some college football picks on some national championship futures with some nice future prices available, including some live longshots.
Before going on, let us just say that we still feel that the SEC is the best conference in the land, and of our top five value selections to win the national championship, four of them come out of that power conference. Therefore you will not see the defending champions from Florida State as one of our contenders, especially since just one loss inside the ACC will probably end the Seminoles’ chances anyway and we foresee that defeat coming at Louisville on October 30th.
Another team that we are not including is Alabama, not because they do not have the talent to win it all, because they do, but because their upset loss to Mississippi puts them behind the eight ball with Ole Miss having a more favorable schedule the rest of they way facing the better SEC teams at home. Thus, we do not think that the Crimson Tide are worth their 10/1 odds at Bovada right now.
Speaking of Bovada, they are the source of all of these College Football Champions future odds, and here are five teams that consider backing at the present time.
Georgia Bulldogs (8/1): These Bulldogs are a three-point loss at South Carolina away from being 5-0 and being ranked much higher than their current 13th on the AP poll right now, and remember that their normally reliable kicker Marshall Morgan missed a chip-shot 28-yard field goal that would have forced overtime. Georgia should be fine the rest of the way and they are in the less stacked East Division of the SEC, meaning they should have an easier path to the SEC Championship Game. In fact their biggest remaining division test may come this week on the road at Missouri, and if they win there as we expect, it should be relatively smooth sailing the rest on the way.
Mississippi Rebels (14/1): The Rebels may not have the best team in the SEC West, but they may now be in the best position following their upset of Alabama last week. As long as the Rebels can avoid a letdown and take advantage of a typically bad Texas A&M defense on the road at College Station this week, Old Miss then has its two toughest tests the rest of year at home vs. Auburn and in-state rival Mississippi State, and home field means a lot in this conference. If the Rebels win those two games, they should find themselves as the West representative in the SEC Championship Game. Granted that could be a semi-road game at the Georgia Dome if Georgia is indeed the Rebels’ opponent as we expect, but these odds make it worth the risk.
Auburn Tigers (6/1): We actually feel that Auburn is the best team in the country right now, and only the fact that they have to play Mississippi on the road is keeping us from making the Tigers our top pick right now. Well, that and the fairly low odds. But still, while Auburn’s joyride to the final BCS Championship Game vs. Florida State last season may have been filled with some improbable, wild wins, there is more of a sense of Auburn being a legitimate title contender this year with nothing fluky about its 5-0 record so far. The worst game the Tigers played was their 20-14 win at Kansas State out of conference, but just escaping that atmosphere in Manhattan with a win of any kind was impressive enough, and the other four wins were all blowouts. Auburn would become our top choice to win the National Championship with a win at Mississippi, but at the current time and at the current odds, we just feel Georgia and Ole Miss both offer better value for the time being.
TCU Horned Frogs (25/1): This is the lone non-SEC team we would consider right now to prevail in the first ever College Football Playoff since we do not believe that the Horned Frogs should be 25/1 odds. Remember that we also felt that TCU was an overlay at +1400 when we made the Frogs our longshot choice to win the Big 12 prior to the season, and they have yet to let us down with a 5-0 start keyed by a vastly improved offense like we predicted, and they made a statement in the conference with their upset of then fourth ranked Oklahoma last week. Now if TCU can win at Baylor this week, holding this ticket at +2500 would look like a stroke of genius!
Mississippi State Bulldogs (16/1): Do not forget the other team from Mississippi either, as these Bulldogs are also 5-0 in the early going and they had a big SEC win over then sixth ranked Texas A&M last week. We will learn more about Mississippi State this week when they get Auburn at home, but a win there would put the Bulldogs right in the national championship mix and it could make the season finale vs. Old Miss on the road in Oxford the game that determines who wins the West Division and advances to the SEC Championship Game. And even a loss to Auburn would not knock the Bulldogs out if they can win out afterwards.