Each NCAAF season, in November, teams around the nation assess the state of their program. For many of the teams, this is based solely on the number of victories. Let's examine how this can influence your College Football picks moving forward.
It is an arbiter that many athletic directors and alumni use to base the success of the program and the retention of the head coach. As investors in the outcome of college football games, we can use this to our advantage in a couple of ways.
In a previous article entitled College Football Towel Tossers, we looked to PLAY AGAINST 6-loss teams with negative momentum, who would soon see a Bowl bid slip from reality. These teams will, for the most part, continue to fold like a cheap suit until their Rivalry game in late November (THEIR BOWL GAME). This week, at the other end of the spectrum, we look to isolate teams who are SUPER SURGING IN THE EARLY PART OF NOVEMBER, as they vie for a Bowl bid.
Please note, these are NOT teams who are playing for a position in the CFB Championship. Nor are these teams, who are vying for their conference lead and BEST BOWL BID. These are the type of teams, who are overrated on a weekly basis. For proof of that, look no further than the fact that last week’s undefeated teams went just 3-4 SU and 1-6 ATS (Nebraska as dog!) Rather than backing these continually overpriced public teams, we look to favor the value-laden 5-win teams, who are seeking that valuable 6th win, which makes them eligible for a Bowl.
That 6th win and Bowl eligibility may seem meaningless to many considering it is often a minor Bowl bid. But, the reality is that Bowl eligibility means an average of 2-weeks extra practice, as well as the money that fills the coffers of a school’s athletic department. As a result, 6 wins is a big deal! In a way similar to last week’s Towel Tossers, we look to use positive momentum along with the urgency of win number 6 to isolate this year’s SUPER SURGERS using the following theory.
PLAY ON ANY FIVE-WIN TEAM, WHO IS COMING OFF A VICTORY IN THEIR PREVIOUS GAME.
The basis of the theory is as simple as that. As I pointed out in last week’s article on Towel Tossers, any single premise is simply not enough reason to make your investment. It must be reinforced by fundamental, statistical, situational and technical reasons other than this single entity. Nonetheless, it is noted that this single premise often provides great value as the calendar turns to November each year!