College Football Betting Guide - The Odds vs. The Playmakers - Part 1

Clemson Tigers

Wednesday, August 24, 2016 4:15 PM GMT

In order to be prepared for college football betting, you have to cover as many angles as possible. One I enjoy assembling is who the playmakers are in each team and compare them versus the conference odds.

Years ago I struck a friendship with a Big Ten scout (since retired) and he taught me various elements about players at all the starting positions and who are the playmakers with All-Conference potential.

This includes not just skill position players, but linemen, linebackers and those in the secondary. Having learned this, I began to compare against the college football odds what teams had the most playmakers and how that stacked up versus the odds to win the conference.

While these are subjective, the potential is in place to find over and underrated teams and numbers are based on point value system.

 

Here is Part 1, With the odds found at 5Dimes.

 

American Athletic Conference

East Division

1) South Florida (24.5) +280 odds

2) Temple (21) +825

3) Cincinnati (17.5) +560

4) Connecticut (17) +4400

5) East Carolina (12.5) +6000

6) Central Florida (2) +14000

 

West Division

1) Houston (21.5) +137 odds

2) Tulane (12.5) +20000

3) Tulsa (9) +3900

4) Memphis (3) +1900

5) SMU (1.5) +8500

6) Navy (0.5) +1900

AAC Analysis – Houston and South Florida have the most difference-makers and are favored to win their divisions. What really stands out is Tulane has almost no chance to win the AAC but has several highly skilled players, which could make them dangerous when it comes to covering spreads. Navy is not going to show well because they cannot recruit the same types of players other is the league can, but last year their number was 6, meaning they are unlikely to match 2015 record.

 

 

ACC

Atlantic Division

1) Clemson (42.5) +172 odds

2) Florida State (28.5) +218

3) Louisville (13.5) +1050

4) Boston College (3.5) +8000

5) N.C. State (2) +5500

6) Wake Forest (1) +14000

7) Syracuse (0) +20000

 

Coastal Division

1) North Carolina (16.5) +1050 odds

2) Pittsburgh (16) +2500

3) Virginia Tech (8) +2000

4) Miami-Fl. (7) +1050

5) Virginia (6.5) +14000

6) Georgia Tech (1.5) +3000

7) Duke (1) +6000

ACC Analysis- This is really a conference of have's and have not's. The power teams are who you would expect. Pittsburgh has a nice grouping of very good players, but as far as using them for college football picks, they are lower because their most difficult conference clashes are on the road this season. Miami is not as highly thought of either, with Mark Richt trying to turn the program in the right direction. Syracuse is the only team in the study without any points.

 

 

Big Ten

East Division

1) Michigan (31) +238 odds

2) Ohio State(24) +162

3) Michigan State (21) +1100

4) Penn State (10.5) +4000

5) Indiana (7) +12500

6) Maryland (3) +25000

7) Rutgers (0.5) +60000

 

West Division

1) Iowa (14.5) +750 odds

2) Nebraska (10.5) +975

3) Northwestern (10) +5500

4) Wisconsin (7) +1600

5) Illinois (2.5) +16000

6) Minnesota (2) +6000

7) Purdue (1.5) +50000

Big Ten Analysis- Michigan has created a buzz not only as potential conference champion but earning a berth in the Final Four. However, sportsbooks are still of the opinion that Ohio State will reload and not be rebuilding, especially when the Big Ten season starts. While Wisconsin is thought to have the stronger program, as far as elite talent, Penn State, and Northwestern show up better, though the Badgers might have a more balanced ability. The bottom feeders are going absolutely nowhere.

 

 

Big 12

1) Oklahoma (36) -128 odds

2) Oklahoma State (21) +700

3) Texas (18) +925

4) Baylor (16) +1000

5) West Virginia (13.5) +1500

6) Kansas State (13) +4400

7) TCU (10.5) +550

8) Iowa State (9) +13500

9) Texas Tech (3.5) +3500

10) Kansas (3) +42500

Big 12 Analysis – Oklahoma is overwhelming favorites in weaker Big 12 and should reach Final 4 again. We have a real contradiction on TCU, where the oddsmakers have them as the second-best team in the league, but top talent wise, they slip all the way at No.7. Interesting to see how that plays out. Most preseason magazines were not high on Oklahoma State but sportsbooks and myself like them to contend. If you are looking for a real long shot, West Virginia has the potential, but frankly, their biggest drawback is the head coach Dana Holgorsen.

 

 

Sun Belt Conference

1) Arkansas State (31.5) +250 odds

2) Appalachian State (26.5) +250

3) Georgia Southern (20) +280

4) Georgia State (18) +2000

5) South Alabama (13) +3300

6) Louisiana (8.5) +1200

7) Troy (8) +1300

8) New Mexico State (7.5) +3300

9) Idaho (4) +3300

10) UL-Monroe (2) +5000

11) Texas State (2) +11000

Sun Belt Analysis- Real evident all the power of the Sun Belt is at the top and hard to imagine one the top 3 is not your conference champion. After that in the middle, the sportsbooks numbers do not align with more skilled talent. However, we will not refute, because Georgia State and South Alabama's elite players are very good, but that is around them is not nearly as strong.

 

**Click Here To Read Part 2**