College Football Betting: Favorable Situation For Miami -3 Over NC State

Ross Benjamin

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 9:32 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2016 9:32 PM UTC

SBR contributor and professional sports handicapper Ross Benjamin breaks down Saturday’s ACC battle between Miami and NC State, with the Hurricanes at -3 at SBR's best sportsbooks. Ross is 37-19 over the past seven weeks on college football picks.


Miami At NC State

NC State and Miami will both look to carry over momentum from their victories last Saturday. Miami was a 34-14 winner at Virginia and easily covered as a 9.5-point favorite. Conversely, NC State was a 35-20 victor at the Carrier Dome in Syracuse and cashed in as a 7.5-point favorite. Because these teams are in different ACC divisions, they haven't met since 2012 and it will be only a second game between the two since 2009.

At the time of this writing, college football odds show Miami as a 3.0-point road favorite on Saturday and there’s a posted total of 50.0. If you’re looking to do business with one of the top online betting sites, BetOnline is currently offering new customers a 50% signup bonus.

 Pertinent Team Trends

I usually put very little stock in team trends, and especially those that stretch over an extended period. Nevertheless, there are some of the recent variety I choose not to ignore and such is the case in regards to this matchup.

NC State has gone a dismal 1-5 ATS since 11/2/2013 as a home underdog of 13.0 or less. Additionally, if they were facing an opponent coming off a win the Wolfpack were an even worse 0-4 ATS (-17.5 ppg) in that span..

This will be the fourth time this season Miami has been installed as a road favorite. The Hurricanes went 3-0 SU & ATS on the previous three and won by a substantial average of 23.0 points per game. In fact, since 11/24/2012 Miami has gone 8-0 SU & ATS (+19.0 ppg) as an away favorite following a win by 16 points or more.


Rare Situation

This is one of those unique college football betting scenarios where we have a home underdog (NC State) coming off an away favorite ATS win and facing an opponent (Miami) that’s also coming off an away favorite ATS win. Since 1980, this specific situation has occurred just 34 times. Ironically, the previous time it transpired happened was 10/31/2015 and involved NC State. The Wolfpack were 13.0-point home underdogs against Clemson and failed to cover in a 56-41 loss.

Now let’s discuss how all college football home underdogs have done against the spread when thrust into this precise role. I’m going to shrink the sample size to all games played since 2005 and set betting parameters to a home underdog of 14.0 points or less. The results show those home underdogs going 2-12 ATS. Furthermore, if those home underdogs were playing after Game 6 of the season, they went a dismal 0-8 SU & ATS (-15.6 ppg) over that timeframe.


Final Analysis

Miami has rebounded nicely from a four-game losing streak to win and cover in each of its past two. The victory by NC State last Saturday put an end to its four-game losing streak. Between previously mentioned ATS statistical data pertaining to this game and incorporating professional intuition, I’ll lean toward the road favorite for one of my college football week 12 predictions.

NCAAF Free Pick: Miami -3Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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