College Football Betting Expert Picks - Louisville Cardinals vs Virginia Cavaliers

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 27, 2016 7:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 27, 2016 7:00 PM UTC

Louisville Cardinals travel to C’ville for this Noon ET kick against the Virginia Wahoos. This ACC battle has a lot of chalk on The Cards, but Joe Gavazzi's NCAAF pick says to consider the underdogs.

 Louisville -33 vs Virginia Noon ET ABC TV

Each week in this space, I look to isolate a contrary play, in which the linemaker and public favor a team with positive momentum AND/OR disrespect a team with negative momentum. Each of these events pertains to this game. As such, it offers incredible value as our LONE RANGER GAME OF THE WEEK.

On October 1st, a 4-0 SU ATS Louisville team, who had covered the number by 86 points, traveled to Clemson for their ACC opener.  Despite putting up 568 yards, they came out on the wrong side of the scoreboard with a 42-36 loss. That single loss alone could knock them out of the playoff picture. Now that Houston has lost, they do not have another Marquee Matchup the entire campaign. Following a week to regroup after the Clemson defeat, HC Petrino saw his Cards come a bit flat in a FridayNighter against Duke. As 35 point home chalk, they could only win 24-14. Last week’s rebound against a quality NC State team (who had just taken Clemson to the limit the previous week), has once again alerted the public that the Cards have not tossed the towel on the season.  With nightly highlight films of Cards’ QB Jackson resonating in the public’s subconscious; they are all over the nation’s No. 1 offense at 53 PPG for the blowout this week.   

This positive public perception of Louisville combines with the negative momentum and perception of Virginia and gives us full value in this game, for the Cavs have just lost consecutive home games to Pitt (45-31) outgained them 378-352, and last week to N. Carolina (35-14). Those two home dog losses followed 4 consecutive covers in the underdog role.  Yet, it leaves the public wanting no part of a Virginia team, who figures to miss the post-season party for a 5th consecutive year.  Despite those 2 home losses, the Cavs are still on an 8-2 ATS run as a home dog the last 3 years. This dog role is one in which 1st year Virginia HC Mendenhall has been successful. Dating to his time at BYU, Bronco is 16-9 ATS as a dog, including 4-2 ATS this year.  

Confirming all this public sentiment is the fact that this line has risen from 27 to 31- points at the time of this writing. Greater than 3 point line moves are an automatic look to PLAY AGAINST in my book. Especially, when the current number is MORE THAN 3 TDS FROM WHERE THIS LINE WOULD HAVE BEEN OPENING WEEK! I invite you to put the College Football ODDS in your favor and join me in my College Football PICK on Virginia this afternoon.

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Free College Football Pick: Virginia +33Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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