College Football Betting: Early Look at Florida State Seminoles 2015-16 Schedule

Thursday, June 25, 2015 4:50 PM UTC

Thursday, Jun. 25, 2015 4:50 PM UTC

Now that the Seminoles have experienced the betting heights of 2013 and plumbed the depths of ATS failure in 2014, take a look at how they have matched up against their individual opponents on their 2015 schedule.

<p>In 2010, Jimbo Fisher took on the unenviable task of succeeding a legend, Coach Bobby Bowden. Replacing a legend is never easy, but from a sports-betting perspective, the legends themselves have great difficulty performing up to the public’s expectations. For that reason, Bobby Bowden was barely averaging 44% in all games against-the-spread (ATS) his last five seasons. In part, because of those somewhat diminished expectations for Bowden’s promoted offensive coordinator (Fisher), Jimbo’s first two seasons as head Seminole were profitable, beating the spread at an average of 55.56%. In his fourth season as FSU’s head coach, the Seminoles won a national title and achieved one of their best ATS years of all time going 11-3 against the number. Following that historical 2013 season, <a href="http://" target="_blank" title="Revisit last year's preview on Three Solid Reasons NOT to Bet on Florida State in 2014-15">we anticipated the renewed excessively elevated expectations for FSU in our 2014 preview article</a>. As predicted, Florida State gave back all the impressive ATS ground they gained in 2013 by going 3-11 ATS in 2014.</p> <p align="center"> </p> <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:85px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>DATE</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>OPPONENT</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>LOCATION (STADIUM)</strong></p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:34px;"> <p align="center"><strong>NOTES (Florida State Under Fisher)</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:40px;"> <p align="center">09/5/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:40px;"> <p align="center">Texas State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:40px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:40px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">FSU is 4-1 ATS in season-openers, beating the spread by an average of 9,3 points per game. Their one loss, however, was last season as they failed to cover by 12.5 points.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">They have never played Texas State before, but <strong>the Seminoles are an amazing 12-5 (70.59%) ATS in games when they were favored by at least 28 points</strong>. In those same games (when there was a posted Total), the Over went 8-5.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:13px;"> <p align="center">09/12/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:13px;"> <p align="center">South Florida</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:13px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:13px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">FSU faced USF in Tampa in 2012 when the Noles were 16.5-point road favorites. <strong>Despite more than 80% of the betting action coming in on FSU, they failed to cover the spread by 3.5 points.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Likewise, 75% of the public betting was on the Over, yet (even after some reverse line movement for the Total) the Under was correct by six points.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:24px;"> <p align="center">09/18/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:24px;"> <p align="center">Boston College</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:24px;"> <p align="center">Chestnut Hill, MA</p> <p align="center">(Alumni Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:24px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">When playing BC, the FSU side received a majority of the public betting in all five contests averaging (just over) 68% per game, yet the Seminoles are just 2-3 ATS versus the Eagles. <strong>The point spread has not been a good indicator of the actual difference in the final score as each game’s point spread has been off by double-digits, and an average of 14.4 points per game.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Depending on whether one bet the opening or the closing Total posted on the <a href="" target="_blank" title="Compare All Odds on Offer in Our College Football Betting Directory ">college football odds</a>, the Over is either 3-2 or 2-3. Three of the five Totals have been decided by less than six points, but the last two games have been wildly off, missing the Total by an average of 24.75 points per game.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">10/3/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Wake Forest</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Winston-Salem, NC</p> <p align="center">(BB&amp;T Field)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">FSU is 4-3 ATS after a bye week.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><a href="" target="_blank" title="The Seminoles are at +1400 to win the NCAAF playoffs on the futures odds">The majority of the public betting has been on Florida State</a> for each of the five games in this series, averaging over 67% per game. <strong>That majority has been rewarded with a 4-1 ATS and straight-up (SU) record versus Wake.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Similar to BC, the Over is either 2-3 or 3-2 depending on whether one bet the opening or the closing Total.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">10/10/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Miami (FL)</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:21px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:21px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">FSU is 3-2 ATS versus The U. <strong>The line direction (from opening to closing) has suggested the wrong side the last four games.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Total has gone Under for four out of the last five games (including the most recent four), and just as with the spread, <strong>the line direction (from opening to closing Total) has suggested the wrong side the last four games</strong> (meaning that the Total got higher even though the Under was correct).</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:19px;"> <p align="center">10/17/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:19px;"> <p align="center">Louisville</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:19px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:19px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">These two teams played last season when, despite reverse line movement on the spread, FSU covered both the opening and the closing number.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>The Total went way Over (by 22 or 22.5 points), as FSU’s 42 points were the most allowed by a Louisville team at Home in more than seven years.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:29px;"> <p align="center">10/24/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:29px;"> <p align="center">Georgia Tech</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:29px;"> <p align="center">Atlanta, GA</p> <p align="center">(Bobby Dodd Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:29px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Fisher’s Seminoles have played GT twice- both times in ACC Championship games. <strong>Both times FSU had the majority of the public betting, and both times they lost ATS, </strong>so keep this in mind when placing your<strong> </strong><a href="" target="_blank" title="Free College Football Picks by Our Experts">college football picks</a> </p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Even though the Total has been split, the line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct side both times.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:17px;"> <p align="center">10/31/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:17px;"> <p align="center">Syracuse</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:17px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:17px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">FSU has played the Orangemen twice in the last two seasons. <strong>The Home team beat the spread in each game.</strong> The line direction (from opening to closing) moved the wrong way both times.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">For the Total in both games, the public overwhelmingly (i.e. greater than 80%) bet the Over, and they were right both times, but not by much: 2013’s contest went Over the closing Total by four points, while 2014’s game went Over the closing Total by just 2.5 points.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:22px;"> <p align="center">11/7/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:22px;"> <p align="center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Analyzing the 2015-16 Clemson Tigers Schedule">Clemson</a></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:22px;"> <p align="center">Clemson, SC</p> <p align="center">(Memorial Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:22px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Seminoles are just 1-4 ATS (based on the closing line) when playing the Tigers, but they are 1-1 ATS in Death Valley. Aside from FSU’s one ATS win in 2013 (which was a blowout), the betting outcome for these games has been decided by four points or less. It is also noteworthy that the Noles’ only ATS victory was when their side received the smallest public betting percentage (barely more than 30% in 2013).</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;"><strong>The Over is 3-2, but 2-0 in Death Valley.</strong></p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:18px;"> <p align="center">11/14/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:18px;"> <p align="center">NC State</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:18px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:18px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Based on the closing line, FSU is just 1-4 ATS versus the Wolfpack, but 2-3 ATS using the opening line. That difference is worth noting because <strong>either the Home team is 4-1 or 5-0 ATS in this series</strong>.</p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">The Under is 3-2 between these two teams. Actual results have differed significantly from the posted Totals. The average difference is 17.7 points (meaning the posted Totals are far from predictive). The Totals line direction, however, has indicated the correct side for four out of the five games, and it was correct for the most recent four matchups. </p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">11/21/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">Chattanooga</p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">Tallahassee, FL</p> <p align="center">(Doak Campbell Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Fisher’s Noles have played six FCS teams, and their ATS record is 3-3. <strong>Against those FCS opponents, when FSU was favored by less than 45 points, they are 3-0 ATS; when favored by more than 45 points, the Seminoles are 0-3.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Quite often, Totals are not widely available for FCS matchups. In the two FSU-FCS games with posted Totals, the outcome was split.</p> </td> </tr> <tr> <td nowrap="nowrap" style="width:85px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">11/28/15</p> </td> <td style="width:114px;height:5px;"> <p align="center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="How to Bank on Jim McElwain, Florida, and First-Year SEC Head Coaches">Florida</a></p> </td> <td style="width:156px;height:5px;"> <p align="center">Gainesville, FL</p> <p align="center">(Ben Hill Griffin Stadium)</p> </td> <td style="width:569px;height:5px;"> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">FSU is 3-2 ATS versus their in-state archrival, but the Seminoles have lost two of the last 3 (ATS). The Noles are 2-0 ATS in Gainesville. The line direction in the last four games has indicated the correct side each time. <strong>The visiting team is 4-1 ATS, and 4-0 the last four years.</strong></p> <p style="margin-left:.1in;margin-right:.1in;">Based on closing Totals, the Under is 4-1 (and 3-1-1 using the opening Total). Unlike the spread, the direction of the Totals betting line (from opening to closing) has suggested the wrong side the last three matchups.</p> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table> <p align="center"><strong>©</strong></p>
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