College Football Betting: Analyzing the 2015-16 Clemson Tigers Schedule

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Thursday, May 14, 2015 3:46 PM GMT

Dabo Swinney has been Clemson’s head coach since mid-season 2008. Unlike the coach currently eating grass at the other Death Valley, Swinney actually has a winning against-the-spread (ATS) record at Home ... barely, winning at a rate of 53.19%.

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (Clemson Under Dabo Swinney)

09/05/15

Wofford

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

Clemson is 4-2 ATS in season-openers, but just 2-5 ATS vs. FCS opponents. Those two FCS victories were, however, against the last two FCS teams they faced. The Tigers are 3-1 against the closing line in Home-openers, but they are a perfect 4-0 against the opening line in those games.

The last time Clemson faced Wofford was in 2011 when the Tigers failed to cover the closing 24-point spread on the college football odds by 16 points.

The Over is 4-2 ATS in Clemson season-openers.

09/12/15

Appalachian State

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

This game is Dabo’s first against App. St., but it will be his third against current Sun Belt Conference teams. Against the two previous Sun Belt foes, Clemson split the games both ATS and with the Total. Both games were the two most lightly-bet FBS games of their respective Clemson seasons.

The Tigers are 4-2 ATS in games immediately preceding their conference opener. The Over is 4-1 in such games. (One such game, versus an FCS school, had no posted betting Total.)

09/17/15

Louisville

Louisville, KY

(Papa John’s Cardinal Stadium)

Clemson is 4-2 ATS in conference-openers, and the Over is also 4-2.

Louisville joined the ACC just last season, so their one game against Clemson was last year. In that game, Clemson closed as an 8.5-point favorite in Death Valley. Despite being the overwhelming public favorite (by a betting count of more than two-to-one), they failed to cover the spread by 2.5 points. The game went 6.5 points under the Total.

10/3/15

Notre Dame

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

Clemson is 5-3 ATS after a bye week.

In Clemson’s 10 most-heavily bet non-Bowl games (which can be considered “marquee” games), they are 5-5 ATS. The Over went 7-3, which makes this game especially interesting since, in Notre Dame's marquee games under Coach Kelly, the under went 7-3. The Under is 6-5 in all non-conference FBS games in Death Valley.

10/10/15

Georgia Tech

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

GT was Coach Swinney’s first opponent when he took over mid-season as head coach in 2008. With little time to prepare, Dabo’s Tigers lost that game ATS. Since then, against Tech in Death Valley, Clemson is 3-0 ATS, beating the closing spread by an average of 9.67 points. The Over is 2-2 in Clemson Home games for this series.

Overall, Swinney is 4-4 ATS versus GT, and the Total is evenly split as well.

10/17/15

Boston College

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

Clemson is 4-3 ATS versus BC. The point spreads tend to be pretty close to the actual results in this series, as Clemson has covered the spread in these seven games by an average of -0.36 points (less than half a negative point). Clemson has been the favorite in every game, except Dabo’s first versus BC in 2008. The Tigers are 2-1 ATS in Death Valley.

The Under is 5-2 overall, and 3-0 when played at Clemson.

10/24/15

Miami (FL)

Miami Gardens, FL

(Sun Life Stadium)

Dabo has faced the Hurricanes twice, and the last time was in 2010. His Tigers are 1-1 ATS with the road team beating the spread in both games. (Miami closed as a four-point favorite for both games.)

The line moved down on the Total both times (from opening to closing), but the Over went 2-0.

10/31/15

NC State

Raleigh, NC

(Carter-Finley Stadium)

Clemson is 2-4 ATS versus NC State, including going 1-2 ATS in Raleigh. The Tigers have been favorites all six times, and the line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the correct side in five out of the six contests (and all three times in Raleigh). In three games, one side (Clemson) received at least 70% of the betting action. That side lost all three times.

There was a public majority on the Over all six times (averaging more than 74% per game), yet the Under was 4-2.

11/7/15

Florida State

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

Clemson is 5-2 ATS versus FSU. The Home team has been the favorite for every game, except the last time these two met in Death Valley (2013). In terms of public betting, both extremes were bad for Clemson: When the greatest public majority and the least public betting (by percentage) bet on Clemson, they lost. (Both times constitute Clemson’s only two ATS losses to FSU.)

The Over is 5-2 in this series. Coincidentally, as with the spread history, both public betting extremes were bad for the Over: When the greatest public majority and the least public betting (by percentage) bet on the Over, the Total went Under.

11/14/15

Syracuse

Syracuse, NY

(Carrier Dome)

The Tigers have faced the Orangemen twice, and the ATS record is split. Even though Clemson was the double-digit favorite both times, the road team beat the spread.
The Total went Under both times, despite the fact that the Over received an average of 73% of the public betting.

11/21/15

Wake Forest

Clemson, SC

(Memorial Stadium)

Even though Clemson was the favorite by an average of nearly 16.5 points and the public betting choice (by an average of 71%), the Tigers still beat the spread four out of the six times they faced Wake Forest.

The Under is 4-2, but the Over has been the case the last two meetings. The line movement on the Total (from the opening to the closing Total) has indicated the wrong side for five out of the six games.

11/28/15

South Carolina

Columbia, SC

(Williams-Brice Stadium)

The Carolina-Clemson rivalry has been dominated by SC, both ATS and straight-up (SU), with the Gamecocks winning five out of the seven contests (in both categories). Coach Swinney, however, won his first and last games against his bitter rival (both ATS and SU). Studying this series is fascinating for the following reasons:
First, the betting line moved (from where it opened to where it closed) just four out of seven times. The four times the line did move, the line direction suggested the wrong side every time.
Second, no matter who was favored, the opening and closing betting lines have been less than a single touchdown all seven times. (Neither team has been favored by as much as a single touchdown.)
Third, in addition to the line direction being wrong, and despite the narrow point spreads, the point spread itself has been a poor indicator of actual results. All seven times, the actual results differed from the closing betting line by double digits, and by an average of 16.5 points.
Fourth, the team getting the minority of the public betting (by percentage) is 6-1 ATS.
Fifth, the losing team has scored exactly 17 points in four of the seven games.

The Total has gone Under five out of the seven times, including all five of the most recent meetings which is something you should consider before making your college football picks. Only once was there a majority of public betting on the Under, and the Over was correct in that game (one of just two times the Over was the case).

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