Hi, my name is Red Wydley and I am going to tell you Oklahoma takes out Clemson against the college football odds and easily moves to the college football championship game on January 11th.
Doug Upstone was supposed to write this article and he already presented the opposite point or view, and wrong I will add, about why Clemson will cover.
While Doug is a nice guy and has done pretty well at sportsbookreview.com writing articles as a football handicapper making college football picks, compared to me, he's a hack. When it comes to knowing how to make sports picks, there is only one Red Wydley.
Oklahoma as four-point favorites at Heritage, but trust me, that's just a number and it won't matter as you are about to learn from a real football savant. And of course let's point out some really interesting props they also have.
Oklahoma In Big Time Revenge
People with less intelligence than me, which is just about everyone, will say the Sooners wanting to make amends for 40-6 catastrophic loss in the sweatshirt bowl (Russell Athletic) does not matter because of the importance of this game. All I can say to that is get a clue pal! Do you think it would matter more to Oklahoma wanting revenge in a Final 4 game or the Camping World Independence Bowl? Clemson will come ready to play, but these Sooners dudes will be stoked.
Oklahoma Favored for a Reason
Forget all the seeding nonsense, sportsbooks know how to make college football odds. The reason Oklahoma is favored is they are better. Quarterback Deshaun Watson is a very good player, but this Baker Mayfield is something. What kind of player has the courage to only not walk-on at Texas Tech, but also at Oklahoma? This year Mayfield chucked 35 TDs and only threw five picks. Mayfield does not dink and dunk like Watson either, he throws the ball down the field, which is why he was third in the country in yards per pass attempt at 9.6.
I have watched the Sooners loss to Texas at least 10 times and my best explanation is Bob Stoops players were not ready to play and the Longhorns were desperate for a win. But that loss galvanized this team, especially on offense and the O-Line and running backs decided to play harder and they averaged 299.8 yards per game rushing at a crazy 6.11 yards a carry the rest of the season. The only comparable offense Clemson has faced was Notre Dame and they beat them by two points at home in spite of +3 turnover margin.
Sooners Defense Better then Realized
If you look at total defense, Clemson has a large edge, ranked seventh compared to Oklahoma at 31st (296 vs. 351 total yards allowed). But anyone that expects to win bowl bets like me cannot look at just simple numbers. In a decidedly more offensive conference and playing tougher competition (Sagarin schedule ranking has Sooners -19th and Tigers -43rd), Oklahoma was slightly better against the run (3.6 vs. 3.7 YPC) and ever so slightly worse against the pass (6.0 vs. 5.9 YPP).
Clemson was just a half-point better in points allowed (20.2 vs. 20.7), yet Stoops defensive troops did a better job when comparing points given up to yards gained at 16.9 to the Tigers 14.6. To put this succinctly, Clemson has no defensive edge in this game.
Why Oklahoma Wins By 13
Oklahoma comes in on absolute roll at 7-0 and 6-1 ATS, with Clemson on autopilot in their last seven contests at 3-4 ATS. Big games require big plays and while the quarterbacks are pretty even, the Sooners Samaje Perine(RB) and receiver Sterling Shepard are difference-makers.
Both defenses are excellent pressuring opposing quarterbacks with 38 sacks, but Oklahoma has 19 interceptions compared to the Tigers with only 14.
Take this one to the bank, Oklahoma has too many big-game players and moves to national champion with 41-28 win.
Note: SBR Editors apologize for writer's massive ego.