College Football Betting: Alamo Bowl

Friday, December 15, 2017 1:56 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 15, 2017 1:56 PM UTC

The December 28 Alamo Bowl between the No. 13 Stanford Cardinal and the No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs should be a hell of a game, judging by the college football lines.

<h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="" title="Live Odds For This Game">Stanford Cardinal vs TCU Horned Frogs</a></h2><p style="text-align:center">[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3375300, "sportsbooksIds":[626,999993,139,180,19], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><h2 style="text-align:center"><strong>Free College Football Pick:</strong> Stanford +3<br /><strong>Best Line:</strong> <a href=";book=Matchbook" title="Top Rated Sportsbook">at Matchbook</a></h2><p>Let’s be honest: Very few people are going to watch all 40 college football bowl games this year (plus the National Championship, the Celebration Bowl, the three All-Star games, and the remaining FCS playoff games). That’s a lot of football. But there are some can’t-miss games on the undercard leading up to the College Football Playoff. The Alamo Bowl pits the No. 2 choice from the Pac-12 against the No. 3 choice from the Big 12; this year’s edition on Thursday, December 28 (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN) is a doozy between the Stanford Cardinal and the TCU Horned Frogs.<br /><br />It’s pretty much a toss-up on paper. No. 13 Stanford (9-4 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) just barely missed out on playing for the Pac-12 championship, while No. 15 TCU (10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS) dropped the Big 12 title game to the Oklahoma Sooners. The Horned Frogs opened as 2.5-point favorites on the <a href="">NCAAF odds board</a>, and that’s where they are one week later at press time, although our consensus reports show a lean towards the Cardinal.</p><h2> </h2><h2><strong>Down to San Antone</strong></h2><p>Stanford may be ahead on the CFP rankings and the early consensus numbers, but the Frogs will be playing a pseudo-home game at the Alamodome in San Antonio – about a four-hour drive south of Fort Worth. The AP poll also has their rankings reversed, with TCU at No. 13 and the Cardinal at No. 15. That’s close to what the F/+ Combined Ratings say at Football Outsiders, but they’ve got Stanford a little further behind at No. 17 overall.<br /><br />ESPN’s Football Power Index likes Texas Christian to win this one, too. They project the Frogs at 54.4 percent to win the Alamo Bowl; however, that only translates to –1.5 using the estimated probabilities for college football at Wizard of Odds. As a rule of thumb, we’d like to see at least a 2-point gap between the projections and the actual odds before we make our <a href="">college football picks</a>, but if the Frogs happen to reach –3 at the standard –110 vig, that’s a big enough half-point for us to recommend a small wager on Stanford, based purely on the math. TCU might even be a little distracted after AD Chris Del Conte bolted over the weekend and took the same job with the Texas Longhorns. Straight cash, homies.</p>
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