College Football Betting: A Trio of Title Game Totals Picks

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, November 29, 2017 6:26 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 29, 2017 6:26 PM UTC

This weekend features conference titles games and we’ve uncovered three with value betting the over/under. Check out our picks and predictions for the TCU-Oklahoma, Memphis-Central Florida, and North Texas-Florida Atlantic championship clashes here.

No. 10 TCU vs. No. 2 Oklahoma

Look for the first Big 12 Championship game since 2010 to be a low-scoring one. Oklahoma beat TCU 38-20 in Norman as a 7-point favorite back in Week 11. Defense is the Horned Frogs calling card this year, allowing 15.7 points per game, tops in the conference. It’s always tough to beat a team twice in a season, and TCU might have figured the Sooners out in defeat. Oklahoma went scoreless in the second half of the first meeting after posting all 38 points before the break. Look for whatever game plan, momentum, mental edge, or concoction head coach Gary Patterson conjured up to carry over immediately in the rematch.

Oklahoma’s offense tends to lose some of its luster on fair territory as well. The Sooners average 44.2 points per game with Baker Mayfield under center. In six neutral site games, it dips way down to 27.7 points, 11.2 less than the betting market predicts. Go against the early adjustments and pick ‘under’ the total. Books have moved the line to 63.5 after a 61.5 opener. Monitor the number on the SBR oddsboard for the best value, reload, and cash in at one of these top-rated online sportsbooks.

Free College Football Pick: Under 63.4Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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No. 16 Memphis vs No. 12 Central Florida

The American Athletic Conference championship features the two highest scoring teams in the nation. No. 12 Central Florida posts 48.3 points per game and has put up 30 or more in every contest this year. No. 16 Memphis records 47.0 points per game, lighting up the scoreboard for 50 or more in three of its last four. The logical play is to pick the ‘over,’ right? Not so fast.

These two know each other inside and out. They’ve studied and prepped for a matchup three times now after Hurricane Irma delayed the Sept. 9 showdown to Sept. 30. There are few new wrinkles to toss in the playbook and little edge in exploiting mismatches. Advantage goes to the defenses.

The Golden Knights claimed victory in the first meeting 40-13 in Orlando by winning the running game and keeping the dangerous Tigers offense off the field. Central Florida controlled the clock by more than 15 minutes, averaging 7.1 yards per rush. This has been head coach Scott Frost’s modus operandi all season. In fact, last week’s 49-42 thriller over South Florida was the first time an opponent scored more than 24 points against the Knights all season. Frost’s men were handicapped by a short week headed into a game that witnessed three touchdowns in the final 2:30 minutes of regulation. This will be their 12th week in a row suiting up, and Frost is calling on the fans to help motivate his tired team:

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"...this one matters the most."@UCF_Football head coach Scott Frost (@coach_frost) is issuing a "call to arms" to all Knights fans. #UCF #UCFast #UCFierce #ChargeOn #AmericanPow6r #AmericanFB #AAC #ScottFrost #CFB

— New Day Review (@NewDayReview) November 27, 2017

The Tigers average 28.2 points per game in five on the road versus AAC opponents allowing fewer than 30 on the season since Mike Norvell assumed head coaching duties. Central Florida chews up too much clock, and has failed to score more than 40 points in three games kicking off with a single-digit line. Pick ‘under’ 83 points.

Free College Football Pick: Under 82Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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North Texas vs Florida Atlantic

Lane Kiffin’s Owls put a 69-31 beatdown on North Texas at FAU Stadium in Week 8, tallying a conference-record 804 yards of total offense. It was the most points allowed in a game by the Mean Green since joining the FBS in 2011. North Texas committed three turnovers and was visibly out of sorts defensively from the get-go. Head coach Seth Littrell, whose name is being bandied about for a more prominent gig following his dramatic turnaround of the program, did not have is players remotely ready. Nor did they catch any breaks. “"We had a lot of luck that day,” Kiffin remarked in retrospect. “Every ball and call went our way. It was one of those fluke games that happens every 10 years. Both teams are playing well." Kittrell will not be embarrassed again. Expect better from the defense.

Still, the talent is not in place to see North Texas flourish offensively. Littrell is a Mike Leach disciple and spread offense his bread and butter. It’s only equated to 29.0 points per game on the road this season. The Owls roll and put up 40 points, but the combined score stays south of a 74 tover/under. Littrell has never led his team into a game with a total higher than 67.5 points. Erase that last meeting out of your memory.

Free College Football Pick: Under 74Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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