The 2015 College Football season is three months away, but win totals have now been released. And as usual, the LT Profits Group is here with their favorite win-total props.
Even though we are still in spring and both the NBA Playoffs and NHL Playoffs are ongoing as we speak, that does not mean that it is too early to start looking at college football, which in reality could be upon us quicker than you think with the 2015 NCAA Football season set to start in three months. In fact, Week 1 Betting Lines are already available at some books, but our focus here is on the season win totals just released at 5 Dimes.
And oftentimes with these types of Future wagers, it is better to make you college football picks early as these line only figure to tighten up as the season draws closer, so if you do not mind allocating a portion of your bankroll to be tied up until the end of the year, now is the best time to find value and make doing so worth your while with the proper due diligence.
Originally these win totals were released for the major conferences only, but now 5 Dimes has totals available for teams from all conferences as well as the Independents! Our focus here though is on the five majors, as we are presented our favorite ‘over’ and favorite ‘under’ win total bet from each of those conferences.
So without further ado, here are those 10 selections based on the current lines at 5 Dimes. Please note that these plays are for regular season games only and do not include conference championship games or obviously bowl games.
Florida State ‘over’ 9½ wins (-120): Yes Jameis Winston is gone after being undefeated during his career at Tallahassee until losing to Oregon in the Rose Bowl this past January in a game that doubled as the first ever College Football Playoff semifinal. However, the Seminoles caught a break when Everett Golson transferred in from Notre Dame, whom he took to the 2013 BCS National Championship Game as an undefeated team, and he should have no problem beating out Sean Maguire for the starting quarterback job. The Seminoles still have a great running back in Dalvin Cook, talented and athletic wide receivers and the defense should actually be improved over last year.
Louisville ‘under’ 7½ wins (+105): Louisville has a successful first season in the ACC that was keyed by what was statistically one of the best defenses in the country, but unfortunately the Cardinals lost seven starters from that unit, and we fear that the offense may not be good enough for this team to reach eight wins. And remember that the offense lost one of the best wide receivers in the country in DeVante Parker as well as two other top receivers, and the quarterback situation is still unsettled with as many as four mediocre options in the hunt for the starting job.
Wisconsin ‘over’ 10 wins (+160): Wisconsin lost running back Melvin Gordon, but the Badgers seemingly never have a shortage of good running backs and Corey Clement showed flashes of brilliance in his own right last season by rushing for 949 yards on 6.5 yards per carry with nine touchdowns, and he should do just fine behind the gargantuan Badgers’ offensive line. Then there is a favorable schedule that has Wisconsin not facing Ohio State nor Michigan State this season, which is huge because they will probably now be favored in 10 of their games! With that being this posted total, this play should do no worse than ‘push’ and these +160 odds make the risk worth it that the Badgers can get a split vs. Alabama opening week and at Nebraska.
Illinois ‘under’ 3½ wins (+100): The Fighting Illini have improved each year under Tim Beckman, but we feel that streak comes to an end here as we are forecasting a last-place finish in the Big Ten West Division this year. The latest blow for the Illini was losing top receiver Mike Dudek to a torn ACL during a workout last month, and the team does not have much behind him in terms of both talent and experience. Thus, opposing defenses can focus their efforts on stopping running back Josh Ferguson, who rushed for 735 yards and eight touchdowns last year, and if they are successful, Illinois will have great difficulty scoring points. And the worst part is that the Illini even have a tough non-conference road game at North Carolina to go along with a brutal conference schedule that has them hosting Ohio State, Wisconsin and Nebraska, meaning that the Illini may only be favored a maximum of three times all season!
West Virginia ‘over’ 8 wins (+140): Sure the Mountaineers lost wide receiver Kevin White and they will have a new starting quarterback this year, but Coach Dana Holgorsen is an offensive mastermind that almost always has one of the best offenses in the country, so his system alone should allow that unit to overcome the personnel changes. So the whole key to getting to at least nine wins is an improvement to the defense, and while the defensive line remains mediocre on paper, the linebackers and secondary look solid and experienced this year, which is crucial in a pass heavy conference. Now the Mountaineers appear to have near certain losses on the road at Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU, but can they go undefeated in their other nine games? Well, the swing game there is a road test at Kansas State and the +140 makes with a realistic chance of a ‘push’ even with a loss to the Wildcats makes this play worth it in our opinion.
Oklahoma State ‘under’ 7 wins (+130): The Cowboys probably overachieved by going 6-6 in the regular season last season in what was supposed to be a rebuilding year after losing 28 seniors before the year. Now some may see that as a positive and those youngsters gained nice experience and won six games in the process, which should lead to an increase in that win total this year, right? Well…the truth of the matter is that the Cowboys were actually double-digit favorites in their first five wins last year and they did not really beat anyone of note until shocking Oklahoma in the season finale. Now, looking at this year’s schedule, they have a real chance to start 3-0 opening up at Central Michigan and then playing two cupcake home games, but then what? They get West Virginia, TCU, Baylor and revenge-minded Oklahoma at home this year, meaning that their only near certain win is the only other conference home date vs. Kansas.
UCLA ‘over’ 9½ wins (+160): UCLA was a huge disappointment as a darkhorse College Football Playoff contender before last season, and despite underachieving for the most part, the Bruins still could have been in the Pac-12 Championship Game vs. Oregon if not for a season ending loss to Stanford. The good news is that all of that talent is now more experience with UCLA returning 18 starters from the team that did go on to beat Kansas State in the Alamo Bowl. The fact that one of the returning starters is not quarterback Brett Hundley should temper the preseason expectations this year, but we think that works in our favor because it gives us +160 on UCLA reaching double-digits in wins, and that seems doable provided all the raw talent learned from last year’s experience.
Washington ‘under’ 4 wins (+250): The Huskies somewhat surprisingly won eight games in their first season under former Boise State Coach Chris Petersen last year, but his second season looks like a major rebuilding process with Washington struggling to reach half of that win total. That is because the team returns just a grand total of nine starters, with the biggest concerns being finding a competent quarterback and virtually building a defensive front seven from scratch. This is the first year that Peterson has had some of his own recruits, but this club still figures to be a work in progress. But only four wins? Well, the Huskies should beat Sacramento State and California at home, but there is a real chance that they may not be favored in any other game this year. And the +250 on this ‘under’ 4 has successfully reeled us in.
Arkansas ‘over’ 8½ wins (+120): Arkansas snapped a 17-game SEC losing streak last year, but then nobody wanted to play the Razorbacks at the end of the season as they won four of their last six games highlighted by upsets over LSU and Mississippi, with the latter being a 30-0 drubbing when the Rebels were in a College Football Playoff position! And now the Hogs figure to be even better with the return of quarterback Brandon Allen, a plethora of explosive running backs and a very talented and experienced offensive line. The defense also improved last year to rank 10th in the country in yards allowed per game, and even losing four defensive starters, the Razorbacks appear to have enough talent and depth to plug up those holes under second-year defensive coordinator Robb Smith, who received a well-deserved raise over the off-season.
Texas A&M ‘under’ 7½ wins (+165): The first year of the post-Johnny Manziel era was not a good one for the Aggies and the main culprit was a defense that ranked 102nd in the country and dead last in the SEC in total defense while also allowing 36.6 points per game. Now the offense was and probably still is as explosive as ever, but the win total will not go up without improved defense, and to that end the Aggies hired defensive coordinator John Chavis away from LSU for a cool $1.7 million per year. That is all well and good, but Chavis still needs some defenders to coordinate, and outside of an excellent edge rusher in Myles Garrett, he does not really have that much else to work with. Yes the defense can be improved just by Chavis implementing his schemes alone, but to what extent? We do not think the improvement will be enough for us to overlook the +165 on the ‘under’ vs. a brutal SEC West schedule here.