College Football Betting: 2015-16 Boise State Broncos Schedule Analysis

Steve - CollegeFootballWinning.com

Thursday, May 28, 2015 5:47 PM GMT

Thursday, May. 28, 2015 5:47 PM GMT

We go all the way back to 2008 when previewing the Boise State Broncos schedule in order to have more validty before making any college football picks to profit with next season. Let's take an early look!

As a head coach, Bryan Harsin has been at Boise State for just the one season (2014-2015), and his head-coaching experience goes back another season (2013-2014) at Arkansas State. Two seasons at two schools in different conferences does not allow for much statistical validity. For that reason, we have elected to analyze Boise State beyond Harsin’s tenure and go back to 2008. The 2008 season was the last time the Broncos were unranked in the preseason (top 25), yet still finished the season with 12 straight-up (SU) wins (just like this past season). For Harsin’s part, the only possible carryover from Arkansas State to Boise State might be how his teams perform at Home with respect to Totals. At ASU in 2013, his squad had five Home games go Over the Total, just like his 2014 Broncos. That is especially interesting since, in both cases, neither team had so many Home games go Over the number in at least 10 seasons. Apart from that, this 2015-2016 Boise State football betting schedule analysis is based on seven Bronco seasons, from 2008-2014.

 

DATE

OPPONENT

LOCATION (STADIUM)

NOTES (Boise State Since 2008)

09/04/15

Washington

Boise, ID

(Albertsons Stadium)

Washington’s head coach, Chris Petersen, will face his former team in the season-opener. Boise has lost their last two season-openers against-the-spread (ATS), including the 2013 loss to UW. Boise is 4-3 ATS in Home-openers.
With Petersen coaching at Boise, the Broncos went 0-2 ATS versus UW. In both BSU ATS losses, the majority of the public betting was on their side.

The Total on the college football odds went 1-1 (Over-Under), as the line direction (from opening to closing) was wrong by 10 points both times: In 2012, the Total closed at 44, but the actual number of points scored was 54. In 2013, the Total closed at 54, but the actual number of points scored was 44.

09/12/15

BYU

Provo, UT

(Lavell Edwards Stadium)

Boise is 1-2 ATS versus BYU, but the Broncos’ one ATS win was last season when they covered the spread at Home by 18.5 points.
Last year’s contest against the Cougars stampeded Over the Total (by 27 points), just as more than 75% of the public betting predicted.

09/18/15

Idaho State

Boise, ID

(Albertsons Stadium)

Although the Broncos have not played the Bengals, they are 1-1 ATS versus FCS opponents. When Boise is a favorite of 40 points or more, they are just 2-5 ATS.

In those games where BSU was at least a 40-point favorite (and there was a posted line on the Total), the Under was 4-1-1. Keep this in mind before placing your college football picks.

09/25/15

Virginia

Charlottesville, VA

(Scott Stadium)

Although this will be Boise’s first game against the Cavaliers, Harsin’s Broncos did go east of the Mississippi River twice last season. They were 1-1 ATS.

In Harsin’s one season as head coach, the Over was 5-2 in games played away from Boise, and the average per-game margin of victory above the closing Total was 15.57 points!

10/3/15

Hawaii

Boise, ID

(Albertsons Stadium)

Boise State is 3-1 ATS versus Hawaii, but just 1-1 ATS when playing in Boise. The public betting majority was on the Boise side for all four games, averaging 68%.

When playing on the Big Island, the Over is 2-0, but when playing in Boise (like in this matchup), the Under is 2-0, and by an average of 16.75 points below the closing Total.

10/10/15

Colorado State

Fort Collins, CO

(Hughes Stadium)

Although BSU is 3-1 ATS against the Rams, the last three games have been decided by an average of less than three points per game (off of the spread). Even though the public betting has bet the Over in all four games, averaging 77.5%, the Over has been the correct side every time (and by an average of 12.38 points per game above the closing Total).

10/16/15

Utah State

Logan, UT

(Romney Stadium)

Overall, BSU is 3-2 ATS on the closing line (and 4-1 ATS on the opening line) versus Utah State. In Logan, Boise is 2-0 ATS (on the opening and the closing lines).

The public betting, averaging 77% on the Over, was correct, since the Over in this series is either 5-0 or 4-0-1 (depending on whether the opening or the closing line was wagered).

10/24/15

Wyoming

Boise, ID

(Albertsons Stadium)

Although Boise is 4-1 ATS versus the Cowboys (including Bryan Harsin’s greatest margin of victory ATS in his two-year head-coaching career- 35 points in last season’s game), the Broncos are just 1-1 ATS in Boise. Interestingly enough, the public betting has been correct all five times, meaning the team receiving the majority of the public betting is 5-0 ATS in this series.

When played in Laramie, the Over is 3-0 and by an average of 13.33 points. When played in Boise, however, as in this matchup, the Under is 2-0 and by an average of 12.75 points.

10/31/15

UNLV

Las Vegas, NV

(Sam Boyd Stadium)

Being favorites of an average of more than 35 points, Boise is 0-2 ATS versus UNLV, even though the public has been on the BSU side with an average of 73%.

The only thing consistent about the Total in the pair of games between these two teams was the public overwhelmingly bet the Over- both times hitting or exceeding the 85% mark. The Total, however, was split.

11/14/15

New Mexico

Boise, ID

(Albertsons Stadium)

Even though Boise is 8-5 ATS after a bye week, the Broncos are 0-2 ATS under Harsin after a bye.

Boise is a consistent 0-4 ATS versus New Mexico. The average spread on these games, when played in Boise, was more than six touchdowns.

Even more consistency is found with Totals betting in this series: The Totals line direction (from opening to closing) has indicated the wrong side all four times. Both times this game was played in New Mexico the Over won, and both times this game was played in Idaho the Under won.

11/20/15

Air Force

Boise, ID

(Albertsons Stadium)

Boise State is 1-6 ATS in final Home finales, including an ATS loss last season.

Based on the closing betting line, BSU is 0-3 ATS versus Air Force. (They are 1-2 ATS on the opening line.) Last season, Air Force covered the closing spread by 26.5 points!

The Total is as divided as possible (based on the closing number), going 1-1-1. Last season, 88% of the Totals bets were on the Over, but the Under was correct by 15 points.

11/27/15

San Jose State

San Jose, CA

(Spartan Stadium)

While it is true that the Broncos are 3-0 ATS versus the Spartans, it should be mentioned that they have not played each other since 2010.
An average of more than 80% of the betting public was on the Over, yet the Under went 2-1.

Of the seven seasons researched for this schedule analysis, only one regular season ended on the road for Boise; it was in 2012 against Nevada, and the Broncos lost the game ATS by a single point.

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