College Football Betting: 2013 Season Win Totals

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, July 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Jul. 26, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

With the 2013 College Football season a month away, which teams will exceed their win totals? Moreover, which teams will fall short? Here are three ‘over’ and three ‘under’ selections for this year.

Believe it or not, while temperatures are reaching the 90s seemingly on a daily basis right now, we are just a shade over one month away from the beginning of the 2013 College Football season! Posted regular season win totals have been up at 5 Dimes for the past month or so, and we still feel that there is good value available if you act quickly.

While only win totals for the marquee teams were out at first, 5 Dimes now has win totals out for practically every team in the country, so there is no shortage of opportunities to choose from. Many teams even have several win totals posted at various prices, adding even further to our range of choices.

After deciphering through all the madness, we have come up with what we feel are the three best ‘over’ and three best ‘under’ propositions for this season. Yes, a couple of these have fairly high prices, but we feel that those that do offer better expected value than taking the alternate win total at one-half game worse for a better price, as we feel the latter would increase the chances of a ‘push’ and take some money from our pockets.

So without further ado, let us kick off our college football picks for 2013 with these six team win totals, three apiece on the ‘over’ and ‘under’.

’Over’ Teams
Kansas State ‘over’ 7½ (-155): The Wildcats have seemingly overachieved each of the last two seasons, and they were even on the cusp of a BCS Championship Game appearance last year until a late-season loss to Baylor shattered those dreams. However, the heart and soul of that team, quarterback Collin Klein, has moved on and even worse, Kansas State returns only two starters on defense which is the fewest in the nation. Not all the news is bleak however as the entire offensive line returns as does leading rusher John Hubert, who ran for 947 yards and 15 touchdowns last year. Also, you can never underestimate the coaching of Bill Snyder, who deserved Coach of the Year consideration each of the last two seasons for getting the absolute most out of his talent. Looking at their schedule, it appears that even with their losses in personnel, the Wildcats figure to be favored in eight of their 12-games and they only project as three-point underdogs as of now at Texas Tech. We would resist the urge of going ‘over’ 8 at -110, as an 8-4 record seems very likely to us.

BYU ‘over’ 7½ (-120): The Cougars finished 8-5 last season culminating with a 23-6 win over San Diego State on the Aztecs’ home field in the Poinsettia Bowl, and four of the five losses were by a combined 13 points! BYU had one of the best defenses on the country, but now returns only four starters on that side of the ball, but at least one of them is third-team All-American linebacker Kyle Van Noy. Coach Bronco Mendenhall has always pieced together good defenses, so do not expect the drop-off to be too extreme, and the offense should be improved with eight starters back. The Cougars project to be favored in eight games and they appear quite capable of upsetting Utah State as a small underdog or even Wisconsin as a bigger pup. Remember too that BYU has never lost more than one home game in a season under Mendenhall, now in his ninth season at Provo. If the Cougars can win three of their first four games, where they open on the road at Virginia and then have three home games vs. Texas, Utah and Middle Tennessee State, then we should be well on our way to cashing this ticket.

Oregon State ‘over’ 8½ (-110): The Beavers could end up being in the mix along with their in-state rivals the Oregon Ducks and the Stanford Cardinal for the Pac-12 North Division title this season, as this is a team that has often improved year-to-year under Coach Riley. There is no reason to expect otherwise this season from a club that returns 15 starters and 60 lettermen from a team that finished 9-4 last season. Both quarterbacks from last year, Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion, return with the difference being that Vaz is now the undisputed starter. The Beavers also return leading rusher Storm Woods, who is likely to improve on his 940 rushing yards to give the offense better balance, as well seven starters on a very good defense. Oregon State will certainly be underdogs at Oregon and at Arizona State, but the Beavers get Stanford at home this year and they should be favored in their other nine games. Obviously upsetting Stanford would be huge, but as long as the Beavers hold serve when they are favored, this play should be good.

’Under’ Teams
Florida State ‘under’ 10 (-105): The Seminoles will certainly be the favorites to win the ACC again this year, but the Seminoles did lose 11 starters to the NFL including quarterback EJ Manuel, who spearheaded an offense that averaged 39.3 points per game. We do not see FSU approaching that average this season with freshman Jameis Winston at the helm, meaning that the Noles will rely even more on their defense this year, which was one of the best in the county last season allowing only 14.7 points per game. The news is not entirely rosy their either as Florida State returns only four starters on defense, although it does return five of its top seven tacklers. Keep in mind that the Seminoles play in the weak ACC, but also remember that it seems that they lose one game every year that they are expected to win, with last year’s stunning loss coming to NC State. If that happens again this year, then this play should be in good shape as the Seminoles will be underdogs in road games at Clemson in conference and at Florida out of conference.

Utah ‘under’ 5½ (-150): The Utes won only five games last season despite returning 16 starters from a team that won eight games in its inaugural season in the Pac-12 in 2011. This time, Utah returns only 12 starters and lost 34 lettermen, and yet this total is asking them to exceed last year’s win total. We simply do not see that happening as this team will probably only be favored in one Pac-12 game at home vs. Colorado and it has just one seemingly sure win in non-conference play in Weber State at home. To make matters worse, the Utes face both Oregon and Stanford from the North this season after not facing either of those teams in their fist two years in the conference. On top of all this, Utah is still unsettled at quarterback and also lost leading rusher John White IV and three offensive linemen. This looks like a total rebuilding year for the Utes, and we have no qualms about laying -150 on this is this may be the safest playing of all the 5 Dimes win totals.

Michigan State ‘under’ 8½ (-115): This may be our most controversial call this year as this is a team whose five Big Ten losses were by a combined 13 points last season, and if the Spartans could have gone just 3-2 in those games instead of losing them all, they would have finished 10-3 overall and 6-2 inside the conference. So surely they will improve enough from their 6-6 regular season mark to do ‘over’ this year, right? Well, we are not that confident because perhaps the biggest reason they could not close out games last year was the erratic play of quarterback Andrew Maxwell, and he returns under center. Maxwell also had a luxury in the backfield last season in running back Le’Veon Bell to take the pressure off of him, but Bell is now in the NFL meaning that the passing game needs to improve this year. We are skeptical that it can, as while many would consider all the starting wide receivers returning to be a good thing, those receivers probably led the Big Ten in drops last year.

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