College Football ATS Pick - Oregon's Offense To Steam Roll Virginia & Cover

Oregon Ducks Stadium

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, September 10, 2016 10:18 PM GMT

In the late game of Saturday's action, Oregon hosts the Virginia Cavaliers. After analyzing the college football odds, our capper provides his expert insight and a profitable betting angle.

Virginia at Oregon (-24) 10:30 ET ESPN
Each week on these pages, I isolate a college football STEAMROLLER of the week. The purpose is to find one team who dominates the point of attack by either double rushing their opponent or by running and passing for 200 yards, while their opponent does not.  In the 16 years of this millennium, each of these situations has resulted in 75% point spread winners.  

If the offensive success of Oregon in years gone by is a good indicator of this team’s offense, then so is the Virginia performance of Week 1 under 1st year HC Mendenhall.  

Are there concerns about Oregon under 4th year HC Helfrich?  You bet!  This guy is focusing on his 45 PPG offense and virtually ignoring a defense which has gone from allowing 20 to 24 to 37 PPG in his 3-year tenure.  In Week 1, the Ducks ran and passed for at least 251 yards but failed to cover the 46 point impost against Cal-Davis in a 53-28 victory, when they allowed the Aggies to pass for over 300 yards.  Now, in the last 1+Y, the Ducks are just 2-5 ATS as home chalk.  This year’s imported triggerman from Montana St. is Dakota Prukop.  He thrived for the Bobcats, running the same Chip Kelly offense that Oregon runs.  But, if the Ducks are to return to Top 5 status, it will have to be because of new DC, Brady Hoke, does a much better job with the defense than previous coordinators. Today, however, it may not matter. 

Virginia was badly underachieving in the 6 years under Mike London.  In the previous 4 years, the Cavs were just 15-33 SU.  Recruiting had sunk to an all-time low.  This year’s Cav fate is entrusted to former BYU HC, Bronco Mendenhall, who led the Cougars to Bowl games in all 11 years with the Cougars.  If the results of Week 1 were any indication, that streak is about to be broken.  On opening week, the Cavs were a 13 point home favorite against FCS Richmond.  Not only were they beaten (37-20), failing to cover by 30 points, but they were -4 in the net TO column, were outgained 524-302 and outrushed 187-38.

Even if the Oregon defense does not live up to the expected improvement, it seems a short leap to assure a 4 TD+ victory against a Virginia team who has a long way to come back.  

I invite you to put the College Football odds in your favor and join me in my College Football Pick on Oregon tonight.

 

Free College Football Pick: Oregon -24
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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