We comb through the futures odds to identify our favorite values on national championship odds in college football.
Six teams remain on the odds lists to win the College Football Playoff National Championship this season: Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, TCU, USC and Alabama. Which odds stand out among the rest?
Top National Championship Bets
- Georgia (-155 via DraftKings)
- Michigan (+300 via FanDuel)
- USC (+1300 via BetMGM)
Top National Championship Predictions
Georgia (-155) ★
The defending national champions are undefeated heading into the SEC Championship Game against a three-loss LSU squad. Even with a loss in Atlanta, it’s hard to imagine Georgia being left out of the CFP field, which is something you may not be able to say with certainty about the other teams on the odds list.
It’s not difficult to understand why the Bulldogs are the only team with negative odds. Georgia ranks No. 1 in defensive efficiency and No. 4 in offensive efficiency in the country. But for all the good things you can say about Georgia, I’m still labeling the Bulldogs as merely a one-star play. The odds are so unattractive that I can’t imagine betting them.
The Bulldogs are favored to win the title as though they’re already field-goal favorites in the championship game. While the win over Tennessee was impressive, we haven’t seen Georgia against any other notable teams this season. If the Bulldogs play similarly in the CFP to their efforts in some uncomfortably close games against Kent State, Missouri or Kentucky, it’s possible to see this team upset — more possible than BetMGM (-165), FanDuel (-160) or DraftKings (-155) suggest.
Michigan (+300) ★★★★
To be able to take down Georgia, a team would need to possess elite ability on both sides of the ball. No team has proven that it has that as much as Michigan, which arguably executed the most impressive win of the college football season when it dominated previously-undefeated Ohio State on the road last weekend in Columbus.
That win showed off Michigan’s top-five offensive efficiency, scoring 45 points on the No. 2 defensive efficiency in the nation. It showed off the Wolverines’ 11th-ranked defensive efficiency, which held the Buckeyes to 23 points, allowing more than 17 points to an opponent for only the second time all season.
Georgia’s offense has shown cracks in several games this season, and Michigan’s defense can exploit that. Other than the incumbent, Michigan is the team most capable of claiming the crown in January. The oddsmakers agree, as Michigan is the only other team with odds shorter than +1000 to win the title. Bet the Wolverines at +300 at FanDuel and BetMGM, rather than the +290 odds offered by DraftKings.
USC (+1300) ★★
Of the listed teams with longshot odds to win the title, it’s hard to go against Lincoln Riley, Caleb Williams and the exciting brand of football being played by USC. If we were buying into the adage that defense wins championships with this final pick, USC wouldn’t be the choice.
The Trojans rank 65th in defensive efficiency in FBS, by far worse than any other team remaining on the odds board. But USC has the No. 1 offensive efficiency in the nation, led by a dynamic quarterback capable of taking over games and leading his team on a miraculous run.
The complication with this pick is the notion that USC could win the Pac-12 Championship over Utah this weekend and still get inexplicably excluded by the College Football Playoff Committee. It’s possible we see movement on USC’s odds after Tuesday night’s CFP rankings reveal.
As it stands, BetMGM offers the most favorable odds on USC at +1300. The Trojans are +1200 at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Where to Bet on National Championship Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
CFP National Championship college football picks made 11/29/2022 at 5 p.m. ET.