Cats vs. Dawgs Part of Early Line Movement in Week 12

Kevin Stott

Monday, November 13, 2017 5:54 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 13, 2017 5:54 PM UTC

Let’s look at mini-previews for three of the larger early spread moves in college football and also list the other lined FBS Week 12 games where the opening number had moved at least 2 points and offer up a pick or two.

Georgia, Notre Dame, Washington and TCU hated what happened on the gridiron in Week 11 while Auburn, Miami (Fla.), Oklahoma and Clemson all loved what transpired as the CFP Playoff picture clouded up real good as it has right about this time in the previous three years of this FBS CFP Playoff championship three-game system to determine the 2018 CFP National Champions. You want drama? It’s baked into the cake buddy boy. Things we thought Yesterday aren’t the things we think Today. Dreams and Smiles in Athens and South Bend have suddenly been replaced with Doubts and Frowns as the Tigers showed Uga X what’s up and the Canes quickly made Touchdown Jesus into Field Goal Jesús.

Looking forward to the NCAA Football Week 12 odds, we see little earlier initial movement (first hour) compared to last week with only two games moving 2½ points or more (Eastern Michigan-Miami Ohio and Georgia Tech-Duke) with Sharps making the Redhawks the Favorites (MIA -2½, BetOnline) after that Wednesday night affair that opened a PK while the Wiseguys went the other way, taking Underdog Duke and the opening 8½ points, betting the Blue Devils down 3 points to (Georgia Tech minus) 5½ for their Week 12 ACC meeting from Durham in the largest really early point swing.

Another game which drew some Underdog money on Sunday afternoon at Offshore sportsbooks was the SEC's Georgia-Kentucky meeting on Saturday with Wildcats action driving the opening line down from (Georgia minus) 24 to 22 after the Dawgs (38/1 to win 2018 CFP National Champions, BetDSI) suffered their first Loss in Week 11 at Auburn, 40-17, possibly ousting them from any national championship hopes. In that game, the Tigers led 16-7 at Halftime at Home at Jordan-Hare Stadium in a game which saw QB Jarrett Stidham (3 TD passes) and the Plainsmen outgain Georgia 488-230 and almost have twice as many First Downs as the visitors (25-13) as #10 Auburn improved to 8-2 overall and 6-1 in conference play thanks in great part to a powerful Rushing game (237 yards) led by RB Kenyon Johnson (32 Rushes, 167 yards, 5.2 ypc).

Here are the early (Side) NCAA Football games for Week 12 games which saw their Point Spread move 3 points or more after Opening on Sunday with analysis for three of the bigger Line Movement games. As you can see, big Point Spread swings were minimal this weekend and expect more movement amongst the numbers when the Totals are posted for Week 12. Favorites (46-14 SU) finally had a pretty good week, going 31-26-3 ATS in Week 11 (54.4%) and, like in Week 9 (30-26), Overs had a profitable week in the Totals market, going a stunning 36-22-2 overall in FBS action (62.1%) in a year where Unders have seemingly dominated in the larger context.


Miami (Ohio) (4-6 SU, 2-8 ATS) opened up PK (BetOnline), and saw enough early Sharp action to move the number up 2½ points at most Offshores and then promptly to 3 and even to 3½ at one shop (JustBet) for its midweek game against Eastern Michigan at Yager Stadium (FieldTurf) in Oxford, Ohio on Wednesday night (CBSSN, 7 pm EST/4 pm PST). The Sharps have obviously valued the Site here and are fading an Eagles (3-7 SU) side which has been very good ATS this 2017 Regular Season (7-3 ATS) although Eastern Michigan lost to the RedHawks last season, 28-15 at Home as solid 7-point Favorites and have now lost 7 of their L8 SU.

Early bettors also had to be aware that Eagles QB Brogan Roback (25-39, 204 Passing Yards, 2 TDs) threw 5 Interceptions in a 42-30 Week 11 Loss at Central Michigan in a result which dropped EMU to a dismal 1-5 in MAC play. Kenny Young (100 Rushing yards) led Miami Ohio as the RedHawks defeated Akron on Saturday, 24-24 in the 9th Under in the L10 Zips games as Miami QB Gus Ragland threw for 3 TDs to account for all three Miami TDs, with Young catching 9 Passes for 98 yards and one of those TD receptions in the victory in The Cradle of Coaches in Oxford and a result which kept Akron (5-5 SU, 6-3-1 ATS) from becoming Bowl-eligible -- for the time being at least.

Visitors Georgia opened up -24 (BetOnline) against Kentucky for their Saturday Week 12 game from Athens and the Bulldogs were promptly wagered down 3 points to as low as 21 (-114, Pinnacle) for this Week 12 meeting from Sanford Stadium ) on Saturday (CBS, 3:30 pm ET) with early bettors thinking the number looked a little too high and that Nick Chubb and Georgia (105 Points allowed, #2 FBS) may have lost some of their Motivation with their aforementioned Week 11 Loss(and humbling) at Auburn. Losing and staying close and keeping your Mojo cool is one thing but losing your first game of the season when ranked #1 in the CFP Playoffs to a conference foe before even making it to the Conference championship game is quite another. And early Kentucky backers had to like the way the Wildcats performed in Week 11, thumping host Vanderbilt, 44-21 in Nashville and covering ATS by 25½ points in a result that improved Kentucky to 7-3 SU (3-7 ATS).

But the Trends in this SEC series reveal the Bulldogs to be a profitable 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings against the Wildcats, including a 27-24 near-cover as 2½-point chalks in Lexington last season. The last time 5th-year Head Coach Mark Stoops (22-33 ATS) and Kentucky traveled to Athens, it could only manage a FG in a 27-3 Loss and non-ATS cover as 16½-point Road Underdogs, 27-3 in 2015 and the Wildcats Offense could be up against it once again with the Dawgs in a foul mood after the Auburn sobering and Georgia having the 2nd best Scoring Defense (11.7 ppg, Alabama #1, 9.8 ppg).

Point Spread darlings Georgia Tech (5-4 SU, 7-1-1 ATS) opened up as 8½-point Road favorites at Duke (4-6 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) in Week 12, and heavy Blue Devils money have driven this line down as much as 3 points already with the number now (Sunday night, 8:17 pm, EST) at 5½ at BetDSI and JustBet. Can Duke win this Week 12 game from Atlanta on Saturday? Quite possibly, but the Blue Devils will actually head in here on a 6-game SU Losing Streak (0-5-1 ATS L6) and off a Week 11 Loss at Army (21-16) which saw Duke head in as 4-point Road Favorites and saw the Blue Devils play their 8th straight Under (52). Even though Duke is 2-0 ATS the L2 meetings, proceed with caution here as the Yellow Jackets are 21-4 SU the L25 meetings against Duke but lost won here on the Road at Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham in 2015, 34-20, losing outright as 7-point Road Favorites.

In Week 11 action, QB TaQuon Marshall (above) and Georgia Tech won outright as 3-point Road Underdogs at Home against #17 Virginia Tech in a big ACC showdown in Week 11 on Saturday from Atlanta, 28-22, outscoring the Hokies by 4 points in the 1st Quarter (7-3), 1 point in the 2nd Quarter (7-6), 0 points in the 3rd Quarter (7-7) and 1 point in the 4th Quarter (7-6) in an almost Baseball-like game which saw 10th-year Head Coach Paul Johnson (61-50-6 ATS) and the Rambling Wreck (+139 Moneyline, Pinnacle) move above the .500 mark during a horrific patch of scheduling to end the 2017 Regular Season (@ MIAMI, WAKE, @ CLEM, @ VA, VT, @ DUKE, GEORGIA). Expect some Georgia Tech buyback here either early Monday or closer to kickoff this weekend, although this number should stay around a TD -sized spread. Slight lean to Georgia Tech.


NORTHERN ILLINOIS opened -8 vs Western Michigan, bet up 2 points to -10 (Wednesday)

NEW MEXICO open PK vs. Unlv, wagered up 2 points to -2 Favorites (Friday)

#6 WISCONSIN opened -9½ vs. #21 Michigan,bet down 2 points to -7½

#7 MIAMI FLORIDA opened -17 vs. Virginia, bet up 2½ points to -19½ (BetDSI)

OLD DOMINION opened -7 versus Rice, bet up 2 points to -9

ARKANSAS STATE opened -24 vs Texas State, bet up 2 points to -26

NCAAF Picks: Michigan +9, Georgia -21Best Lines Offered: Pinnacle
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