Capper's Prime Selections for Your Week 11 College Football Picks

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, November 12, 2015 12:35 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015 12:35 PM UTC

Back to a winning mark in Week 10 on college football picks, hitting on Florida State +12.5 at Clemson and Oregon -4.5 against Cal. Missed on TCU -5.5. Here are my three Week 11 top picks.

BYU vs. Missouri (-4.5)
This game is technically a neutral site one in Kansas City. I'm not sure how focused the Missouri players will be in the wake of all that has gone on at that campus over the past week. Of course this past weekend, several black football players announced they were boycotting all football activities until the school's president, Tim Wolfe, resigned in the wake of several racially-motivated incidents in Columbia. Head coaches generally stay out of things like this, but Tigers head coach Gary Pinkel fully supported the walkout. Wolfe did resign under heavy pressure Monday (the school chancellor also will step down eventually); no doubt because Missouri would have been out at least $1 million had it forfeited the game to BYU. All of the players were back at practice on Tuesday but that walkout may have split the team a bit. Just from an on-field perspective, Missouri isn't very good in losing four straight games and totaling just 25 points in those. Saturday will be Mizzou's first appearance at Arrowhead Stadium since joining the SEC. In all, Mizzou is 5-1 in games played at Arrowhead Stadium under Pinkel. BYU has won five consecutive games after back-to-back September losses on the road to UCLA and Michigan.  Three starting linemen sat out last week's ugly win over San Jose State but all should return Saturday. The Cougars already beat two teams better than Missouri in Nebraska and Boise State. Mizzou and BYU have one common opponent: UConn. Mizzou defeated UConn 9-6 in September and BYU opened October with a 30-13 win over the visiting Huskies.

 The Cougars are 5-2 ATS in their past seven neutral-site games. Missouri is 1-4 ATS in its past five non-conference games.

College Football Pick: BYU -5.5 at Pinnacle

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#3 Alabama vs. #20 Mississippi State (+8)
There are certain times you should never bet against a team coming off facing a certain opponent. For the past few years in the NFL, for example, it's wise to bet against teams the week after the play the Seattle Seahawks because they are so physical and teams are worn down even a week later. I think Alabama is in a similar spot here off last week's big win over LSU. Even though the Tide dominated that game, it was still very physical. Last year off an overtime win over LSU, Alabama hosted Mississippi State and won 25-20. In 2013 and off the LSU game, the Tide beat an unranked MSU squad only 20-7. And in 2012 off an LSU slugfest, the Tide were upset at home by Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M. The Bulldogs also had extra time to prepare for this one as they played last Thursday and dominated Missouri 31-13. The Bulldog offense has scored at least 31 points in each of a four-game winning streak. Dak Prescott and Co. still could win the SEC West with an upset here and another LSU loss. The one thing that Prescott and Dan  Mullen have yet to do at Mississippi State in their careers is beat Alabama. Prescott tied a career high with three interceptions last year against Alabama but he's easily the best QB the Tide have seen thus far in 2015. Prescott has just one pick this season.

Mississippi State. Alabama is 0-4 ATS in its past four following an ATS win. MSU is 5-1 ATS in its past six home games. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five  meetings. Check there college football odds first with us.

College Football Pick: Mississippi State +8 at Bet365

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NC State vs. #19 Florida State (-10)
This one is all about motivation: the Seminoles have none. It's really their first regular-season game without any since at least 2012. FSU can't win the ACC Atlantic Division following last week's hard-fought, physical loss at Clemson. And the Seminoles have no shot at the College Football Playoff or a major bowl game with two losses. Who will start at QB here? Backup Sean Maguire started somewhat surprisingly for the second straight week against Clemson, but former starter Everett Golson has been  medically cleared. Coach Jimbo Fisher hasn't named his starter yet. The Wolfpack have lost running back Matt Dayes for the rest of the season due to a foot injury. Dayes has rushed for 865 yards and 12 touchdowns. But the Wolfpack handled Boston College last week without him. NC State often gives FSU some trouble. Last year, the Wolfpack led by 17 at one point before falling 56-41. In 2012, NC State upset No. 3 Florida State.

The Wolfpack are 8-1 ATS in their past nine road games. FSU is 1-7 ATS in its past eight following an ATS win. NCSU is 6-1 ATS in its past seven trips to Tallahassee. Make NC St. one of your college football picks.

College Football Pick: NC State +10 at 5Dimes

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