Capper Predict 'Over' As The College Football Pick For Bahamas Bowl

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 15, 2015 1:56 PM GMT

We take a look at the college football odds available for the Bahamas Bowl. Get ready for an in-depth analysis and a final college football pick for this upcoming bowl.

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Free College Football Bowl Pick: Over 63.5
Best Odds Offered By Pinnacle

 

Though the side action from the sportsbooks always draws more attention in bowl games because of the expanse of time to study the betting odds and not that many games daily, totals draw more action.

This is especially true of football handicappers releases, where often for college football picks, there might be more value. Let's not lose sight of the fact sportsbooks normally wait close to a week before sending out totals on bowl games, when the same day as the bowl assignments are announced, within a couple hours the college football odds on sides are sent out.

Last year, due to Central Michigan outscoring Western Kentucky 34-0 in the fourth quarter, the two teams blew by the total of 67 in the Hilltoppers 49-48 skin of the teeth triumph. Will we have repeat or will Heritage Sports's total of 63 be too large to surpass?

 

Western Michigan's Case for High or Low Number
The Broncos were 6-5-1 OVER this season and the average total score of their games was 63.3 points. Western Michigan rushed the ball 40 times of their 71 plays a game and held a decisive edge in ball control at over 34 minutes for time of possession. This would often lead to more Under's, but did not in the Broncos case. The reason was Western Michigan was skilled in hitting big pass plays down the field, averaging 9.0 yards per pass attempt, which was 13th in the country.

Western Michigan average 35.2 PPG and were slightly above average in yards per point at 56th.

On defense, the Broncos permitted 28.1 PPG, which is just a little below what their opponents ended up totaling at 29.8. Like most teams, Western Michigan's offense was a little lower away from Kalamazoo (31.7 PPG) and its defense was not quite as good either at 30 points allowed. On the road they were 4-2 OVER. Lastly, in totals which closed in the 60's, the Broncos were 2-1 UNDER.

 

Middle Tennessee's Case for High or Low Number
The Blue Raiders were definitely more towards the UNDER side at 8-4. There were reasons for this occurrence. It begins with playing a freshman quarterback, Brent Stockwell, who also happens to be the head coach's son. Unless a player is an unbelievable talent with Top 5 draft ability, any signal caller is going to play significantly better at home compared to the road. In the case of college football with a team like Middle Tennessee State, you are going to end up playing quite a bit better competition on the road as compared to having many Power 5 conference squads playing in Murfreesboro.

That is where the separation really happened with the Blue Raiders averaging 44.3 PPG at home and 24.2 on the road. Defensively, the numbers were not quite as dramatic and what you saw from coach Stockwell's defense was what you would expect, conceding 25.1 PPG against foes who scored just one-tenth of a point more. On the road the Blue Man crew was 5-1 UNDER and 3-1 UNDER with totals in the 60's.

 

What's the Outcome?
Pre-Christmas bowl games tend to be higher scoring because you find teams with marginal winning record who ended up be more skilled on offense than defense. M.T.S. closed the season 5-0 UNDER, but held four not so hot offenses to just 10.2 PPG and scored only 16 points themselves against Louisiana Tech.

Western Michigan has the ability to move the ball on them and the Blue Raiders in turn will score on the Broncos. I have a couple Game Estimators from database and they project score of 64 and 63 points, basically right on the number. On the technical side, the Middle Tennessee State is 6-0 OVER away after four or more consecutive spread wins and their opponent is 8-1 OVER in road outings after they committed one or less turnovers the last time out. For sports picks, I'll lend my support to the OVER.