Love the ‘Over’ in Oregon-Stanford Clash

stanford oregon

Willie Bee

Friday, October 13, 2017 3:19 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 13, 2017 3:19 PM GMT

The Oregon Ducks and Stanford Cardinal have given us a little bit of everything in recent encounters, and we have a free college football pick for Saturday's Pac-12 contest.

NCAAF Season Record: 16-20-1 (-5.30)

Looking to keep pace in the Pac-12 North race with both teams from the Evergreen State, Stanford is home against the Oregon Ducks in one of Saturday’s final contests. The Cardinal are laying 10 at Bookmaker for the 11 PM (ET) kick on Fox Sports 1, the scoreboard target down to 55½ after opening in the 59-61 point range.

No. 23 Stanford comes in on a 3-game conference win streak after losing its Pac-12 opener at Southern Cal in Week 2. That puts the Cardinal a half-game behind Washington and Washington State in the division ranks, each of those sides sitting 3-0. Oregon is 1-2 in Pac-12 play after dropping a 33-10 decision to Washington State last week.

 

Cardinal’s Love Moving Up In Heisman Consideration

Against Wazzu, the Ducks were without first-string quarterback Justin Herbert, who broke his collarbone in the Cal game two weeks ago, and also without second-stringer Taylor Alie, who suffered a concussion in the same game. True freshman Braxton Burmeister handled the pivot duties, tossing a touchdown that briefly gave Oregon a lead, but also threw two picks. Alie cleared concussion protocol this week, but head coach Willie Taggart has not named a starter for this game. Chances are we will see Burmeister and Alie.

David Shaw used both Keller Chryst and KJ Costello at QB in last week’s 23-20 win at Utah, the final pushing a 3-point spread on the NCAA football odds. Of course, the biggest job either has is handing off to Bryce Love and then getting out of the way. The junior out of North Carolina leads the nation in rushing with 1,240 yards, nine of his 118 carries ending up on pay dirt. Junior wideout JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who missed the Utah game with a leg injury, is probable for Saturday night.

 

Rivalry Trends, Mother Nature & A Free Pick

We’ve seen a little bit of everything in this rivalry recently. Stanford owns a sizeable 48-32-1 advantage overall, but it’s a level 4-4 the last eight meetings with both close and lopsided outcomes. Closing as 3-point favorites, the Cardinal romped to a 52-27 decision a year ago in Eugene, the fourth time in six years the visitors won. Safest way to bet this series the last dozen meetings has been the ‘over,’ those slips returning for a payout nine times out of 12.

For once, it would be great to see rain in the forecast for a game; unfortunately, clear skies abound in Northern California where wildfires have devastated thousands of acres. Officials will be monitoring smoke that could affect this game, which presently should kick off in the mid-60s with little to no wind. I’m liking the movement down on the total and will be riding the series trend with an ‘over’ play for my free college football pick.

Free NCAAF Pick: Over 55Best Line Offered: Heritage

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