Capper Calls Auburn the No Brainer College Football Pick Over Georgia

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, November 10, 2015 1:07 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 10, 2015 1:07 PM UTC

Many predicted a Georgia-Auburn SEC Championship Game this season. But that's not happening as both the Dawgs and Tigers have disappointed. Let's review the college football odds for this matchup.

Dawgs Using Two-QB System
Georgia (6-3, 4-3) was a heavy favorite to win the weaker SEC East this summer but any shot at that evaporated in a loss to Florida on Halloween, which started the rumors of Coach Mark Richt possibly being let go after this season. It has been reported that the Georgia athletic director wanted Richt gone after last season but was overruled by the school's president.

The heat is off Richt a bit after Saturday's 27-3 win over Kentucky -- a loss there and I think Richt was a for sure a goner. Richt, for some reason, used third-string QB Faton Bauta as his starter against the Gators and that was a disaster as Bauta threw four picks. He was back on the bench against Kentucky. Former starter Greyson Lambert got the start and finished 6-for-13 for 64 yards and one touchdown. Brice Ramsey also played two series in the first half was 4-for-6 for 26 yards. Richt plans to use both in this game as well.

Also, expect more of the Wildcat formation. The Dawgs used it vs. UK with freshman receiver Terry Godwin and sophomore running back Sony Michel, who was Georgia's leading rusher and finished with 165 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries. Godwin finished with 26 yards and a touchdown on four carries. His 28-yard TD run in the first quarter was Georgia's first rushing touchdown since star running back Nick Chubb went down with a season-ending injury on the first play against Tennessee. Godwin and Michel helped Georgia’s offense to its first 300-yard rushing performance of the season.

Georgia is 3-6 against the spread on college football odds this season and 3-6 'over/under.'


Did Johnson Win Job Back For Auburn?
Auburn (5-4, 2-4) played probably its best game of the season Saturday, a 26-10 win at No. 19 Texas A&M to end a two-game losing streak. Former Tigers starting QB Jeremy Johnson, who had been benched, stepped in at quarterback for injured starter Sean White. Johnson started 9-for-9 and finished 13-for-17 for 132 yards and a touchdown. Coach Gus Malzahn declined to say who he would start against Georgia if White is healthy enough to go.

Jovon Robinson rushed 27 times for a career-high 159 yards and a TD in the win. Auburn's 311 yards rushing and the 443 yards of total offense against the Aggies were both season highs. The 10 points allowed against a ranked SEC team on the road were the fewest for Auburn since it beat Tennessee 34-10 in 2004. The Tigers picked off A&M quarterback Kyler Murray three times. Auburn allowed a season-low 303 yards.

"That was probably our most complete game, I would say, to this point against an offense that is certainly capable of putting up some numbers," said Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp.

Auburn played that game without starting safety Tray Matthews due to an ankle injury, but he should return here. Matthews started six games for Georgia in 2013 but was dismissed from the team in the summer of 2014. Matthews has 36 tackles (18 solo) with two pass deflections and one interception this season.

The Tigers are 3-6 ATS on college football picks this season and 2-5-2 O/U.


Last Meeting
No.15 Georgia beat then-No. 9 Auburn 34-7 last season. Todd Gurley, now the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite with the St. Louis Rams, had 138 yards and a touchdown on 29 carries but suffered a knee injury that ended his college career. Chubb carried 19 times for 144 yards and two scores. The Dawgs rushed for 289 yards. Johnson, then Nick Marshall's backup, was 4-for-5 for 30 yards. Cameron Artis-Payne had 82 yards and a score on 20 carries. This is Georgia's first trip to Auburn since losing to the Tigers in 2013 on the "Prayer at Jordan-Hare" as the Tigers' Ricardo Louis caught a miracle 73-yard touchdown catch with 36 seconds remaining in the game. The primary defender on Louis on that play? Matthews. The "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry" is dead-even all-time at 55-55-8.

Go with Auburn regardless of its QB. Georgia is 1-5 ATS in its past six following a win. The home team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings. 

Free College Football Pick: Auburn to win at 5Dimes

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