Can Texas Survive The Test at USC - Enough For The OVER

David Schwab

Saturday, September 16, 2017 3:11 AM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 16, 2017 3:11 AM UTC

The Texas Longhorns face a huge test this Saturday night in a Big 12/Pac-12 clash against the No. 4 USC Trojans. Kickoff from Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) and FOX will carry the national broadcast. The early betting consensus continues to lean towards Southern Cal in this matchup.

Texas Longhorns at USC Trojans

Pointspread: USC -15.5

Total Line: 67.5

Texas at USC Game Overview

The Longhorns were looking for a fast start out of the gate as heavy 19-point home favorites against Maryland, but they ended up losing that game straight-up 51-41. The total went way OVER this closing 57-point line. Against San Jose State last Saturday as a 26.5-point favorite at home, Texas flexed its muscles in a 56-0 shutout with the total staying UNDER 62.5 points. It record on the road last season against the spread was 1-4 with the total staying UNDER in the last three road games.

To have any chance at keeping Saturday night’s contest closer than two touchdowns, the Longhorns are going to need a big effort from Chris Warren III at running back. He has carried the ball 22 times in his first two games for 197 yards and two touchdowns. Texas has racked up 504 yards in the ground this year. With quarterback Shane Buechele still doubtful with a concussion, Sam Ehlinger should get the call after completing 15-of-27 passes for 222 yards and a score against San Jose State.

The expectation level is running high for Southern Cal this season as far as locking up one of the four spots for the College Football Playoff, so fans were thrilled to see the Trojans trounce rival Stanford 42-24 last Saturday as four-point favorites at home. This was on the heels of a shaky 49-31 Week 1 victory against Western Michigan as 28-point favorites at home. That game remained tight into the fourth quarter until USC pulled away. Both of these contests went OVER the closing betting lines.

Quarterback Sam Darnold probably caught the early eye of Heisman voters with last week’s performance after completing 21-of-26 attempts for 316 yards and four touchdowns, but he was also picked off twice. Both Stephen Carr and Ronald Jones II rushed for more than 100 yards in that game and, all told, the Trojans ended the night with 623 yards of total offense. This kind of firepower and balance makes this one of the most potent offensive attacks in the nation. USC gave up 170 yards on the ground against Stanford, but they held its passing game to just 172 yards.

Texas at USC Game Betting Trends

-The Longhorns have gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Pac-12, but they fall to 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 games on the road.

-The Trojans are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games coming off a SU win, but they have failed to cover in five of their last seven games outside the conference. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last 10 games following a SU win.

-The last time these two met was in the 2006 bowl season with Texas coming away with a 41-38 victory as a seven-point underdog. The total went OVER the closing 70-point line.

Texas at USC Free NCAAF Pick

I actually like Texas and the 15.5 points on the latest betting line, but I am not all that sure that this would be one of my top college football picks this week. Going with the SBR Odds total line of 67.5 points, I believe that both teams will score enough points to take this game OVER that number.

Best Lines Can Be Found at Pinnacle Sports

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