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STANFORD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 02: CJ Verdell #7 of the Oregon Ducks is tackled by Jordan Fox #10 of the Stanford Cardinal at Stanford Stadium on October 02, 2021 in Stanford, California. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by EZRA SHAW / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

No. 9 Oregon is coming off not only its first loss but also the loss of two of its best players for the season as the Ducks host California in Pac-12 action Friday. Both teams come off bye weeks. Which way to lean at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks

California Golden Bears vs. Oregon Ducks

Friday, October 15, 2021 - 10:30 PM EDT at Autzen Stadium 

The Pac-12 has gotten a team into the College Football Playoff only twice and not since the 2016 season. Should No. 9 Oregon be upset again Friday by visiting Cal, the Pac-12 can all but forget about getting a team into the playoff this season as well – it already might be too late. 

https://youtu.be/ILnwLoeKY_M?t=3

The Bears and Ducks are in the same North Division so they play every year, although I wouldn’t call them rivals. The all-time series is 42-39-2 in favor of Cal. When Oregon is ranked and Cal isn’t, the Ducks lead 11-3.  

Last year at Berkeley, Oregon was a 9-point favorite on the NCAAF odds and was upset 21-17. Chase Garbers threw for 183 yards and a TD and rushed for a score for the Bears and remains the team’s starting QB this year. Tyler Shough, now at Texas Tech, threw for 231 yards and a TD and rushed for 53 yards for the Ducks.

https://twitter.com/CalFootball/status/1447350553642561542?s=20

On 1st-and-10 at the Cal 38 with less than a minute left, Shough hit Johnny Johnson on a two-yard pass, but Johnson fumbled and it was recovered by the Bears. Game over. The home team is 9-4 ATS on the NCAAF odds in the past 13 meetings.  

Pressure Mounting on Cal Coach 

Cal (1-4, 0-2 Pac-12) appears to be going backward under coach Justin Wilcox, who might be in some trouble. Just two years ago, the Bears won eight games but slipped to 1-3 last year and probably won’t win more than three or four this season. Wilcox is a spectacular defensive coach, but the offense under his watch just can’t get going. 

A perfect example of this was Cal’s last game on October, 2 vs. Washington State when the Bears were -7.5 at SBR’s top-rated sportsbooks and lost 21-6. That shouldn’t happen at home. Cal managed just 273 yards of offense. Chase Garbers was an ugly 14-for-30 for 152 yards and a pick.

The Bears’ only score was midway through the second first quarter. To make matters worse, it was homecoming. It was Cal's lowest scoring output since getting shut out by Utah 35-0 in 2019. 

Head coach Justin Wilcox of the California Golden Bears. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

In its previous four games, Washington State had been allowing 29.8 points and had just four sacks, the second-lowest total in the Pac-12, but the Cougars had four sacks vs. the Bears, whose lone win this season was against FCS opponent Sacramento State. Cal is 1-5 the past two seasons (0-3 this year) in games settled by eight points or fewer.  

Wilcox noted that in past seasons the Bears won “our share” of close games. “We have yet to do that this year. We understand, all of us, that it’s a results-oriented game that we’re in. It’s winning and losing.” 

Cal is 11-1 ATS at the top-rated sportsbooks their past 12 as a road dog.

Anthony Brown #13 of the Oregon Ducks. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

Ducks Get Bad News During Bye 

The only reason Oregon (4-1, 1-1 Pac-12) still has a shot at the playoff by winning out, including the Pac-12 title, is because the Ducks have a spectacular non-conference win at Ohio State. However, they haven’t played nearly that well in three games since. 

Coach Mario Cristobal’s team was an 11.5-point home favorite on the NCAAF odds on Oct. 2 and was shocked by injury-ravaged and mediocre Stanford 31-24 in overtime. Cardinal QB Tanner McKee threw a two-yard TD pass on an untimed down at the end of regulation to tie the game and then a 14-yard TD pass on the opening possession of overtime. Oregon was not able to answer with a TD. 

Down 17-7 at the half, Oregon scored 17 straight points and could have put the game out of reach with about three minutes left when they were driving in Stanford territory, but two false start penalties moved the Ducks back and led to a punt and then three penalties on Oregon's defense led to Stanford’s tying score.  

https://twitter.com/oregonfootball/status/1444400687618531328?s=20

QB Anthony Brown struggled for the second game in a row in completing just 14 of 26 for 188 yards and a pick, but Cristobal says the Boston College transfer remains his starter. Brown is the only quarterback of a team ranked in the Top 10 nationally to complete fewer than 60 percent of his passes. Most Ducks fans want to see touted true freshman Ty Thompson but that’s not happening … yet. 

Now the horrible news: Star running back CJ Verdell and excellent safety Bennett Williams are both done for the year. Verdell, who thought about going pro after last season, suffered a lower-leg injury vs. Stanford. He leads the Ducks in rushing with 397 yards and five touchdowns to go with a pair of receiving touchdowns as well. 

Oregon has another good back in junior Travis Dye (60 carries, 382 yards three TDs) but no experience behind him.  

https://twitter.com/bennettw04/status/1443048489894567943?s=20

Williams broke his leg in practice the day before the Stanford game. The junior has three interceptions, returning one for a touchdown, and 20 tackles this year. 

It should be noted that offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead wasn’t able to coach vs. Stanford due to a medical issue but might be back for this one. If not, running backs coach Jim Mastro will handle the role again.  

For my NCAAF pick, Oregon has failed to cover its past seven as a favorite, and I don’t think the Ducks will here, either. I would shop around, though, and see if you can get 14.5 points.  

NCAAF Pick:  (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.