Cali vs. UCLA: High Total Makes 'Under' the College Football Pick

Charles Stark

Thursday, October 22, 2015 12:53 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 22, 2015 12:53 PM UTC

It's Thursday night & we have a great matchup between Cali and the UCLA Bruins. Join me to find why college football odds makers have come out with a really high total for this game.

California Bears
Offensively Cal averages 33.6 points per game, 490 yards per game, and a third-down 43.48% conversion rate. Jared Goff has been a steady presence at quarterback for California and they have had two weeks to prepare for UCLA. Most importantly though is he is looking to bounce back from a terrible performance in Utah where he threw five interceptions. I think they could be in for a little bit of a grind tonight against a UCLA defense which is also trying to bounce back from a poor performance last week. Expect Cal to move the ball but for UCLA to get some key stops when it matters.

Defensively Cal allows 26.6 point per game, 414.4 yards per game, and a 40.54% conversion rate. They don't do anything particularly well but they are ranked in the top 15 nationally in interception percentage and sack percentage. With the ability of getting pressure on the quarterback I expect they will limit UCLA putting together an overwhelming amount  of scoring drives. This is a huge game for California, and like UCLA, I think defensively they will come up with some key stops when they need it.


UCLA Bruins
UCLA averages 34.8 points per game on offense, 462.7 total yards, and a third-down 38.37% conversion rate. Josh Rosen is starting to come into his own as a quarterback and was sometimes very good against Stanford last week and sometimes not. They have a very balanced offense and should have some success against a California defense that is subpar. Still, that being said, with a quarterback only completing 57% of his passes I expect them to have their share of three and outs.

Defensively UCLA allows 27.7 points per game, 392 yards per game, and a 37.76% conversion rate. They should see quite a few pass plays from a California you team that likes to put the ball on the air, but UCLA ranks in the top 10 nationally in yards per pass I just 5.5 yards per game. They don't get to the quarterback very much but they have been solid against good passing offenses ranking 13th in the nation in passing yards per game at 176.2. They will have a heavy task today against a solid quarterback

but I expect them to play well with a chip on their shoulder considering how poorly they played on defense last week.


College Football Odds
Across the board right now College Football Odds makers have this total at 68 which in my opinion is just a bit too high. For one of my college football pick tonight I'm going to take under the total in this matchup. You can still get pretty good odds at under the total of 68 at Pinnacle Sports -106.

I understand it is a lot more fun to take over the total, especially on Thursday night games. Tonight, although I expect both of these teams to score, I expect the defenses to step up and make some stops to keep us under this high total. For one of your College Football Picks I recommend backing under the total of 68 and look for a final closer in the 50's.

College Football Pick: Under at Pinnacle

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