BYU vs. UConn College Football Picks: Defenses Take Center Stage Tonight

Charles Stark

Friday, October 2, 2015 1:20 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 2, 2015 1:20 PM UTC

College football is in full swing and I after analyzing the odds I have another solid college football pick for Friday night's action when the Connecticut Huskies visit the BYU Cougars. 

Normally when I break a total down I like the start with what the odds makers set at the number. Some handicappers set their own number and then check with the odds makers have out there, this is also a good strategy.


College Football Odds
I looked long and hard look at this number that the odds makers set for the total. Across the board at most betting platforms the number is set at 44, and I think that is just a little bit too high. For my under the total college football pick of the day I'm going to back under this number. Right now you can get good College Football Odds at Pinnacle Sports.


Connecticut Huskies
Offensively the Huskies come in averaging 15.3 points per game, 324.3 yards per game, and a third-down 32.50% conversion rate. All those averages are some of the worst in college football and I don't think their task gets much easier tonight against a really good BYU defense. They are still rebounding from last year having had a horrible season, and right now the talent simply is not there. Head coach Bob Diaco is still probably another year or two away to getting the program headed in the right direction. They are run first offense rushing the ball 53.40% of the time, but ultimately for them to win they're going to need production from the quarterback position in which the jury is still out. They do have some okay returners on the line and a couple good running backs who should get in a lot of work.

Defensively Connecticut is actually pretty decent and would be considered the strength of the team. So far they have allowed 18 points per game, 292.7 yards per game, and a third-down 42.86% conversion rate. Impressively they held Missouri to just nine total points, and surprisingly a loss. They have a lot of good returners on the line, at linebacker, and in the secondary which should make a well-rounded defense. It will not be easy to stop BYU at home but the Huskies should make them earn every point they get.


Of course losing starter Taysom Hill has been a tough blow to BYU, and it seems that people were thinking too much of now starter Tanner Mangum before he really had a chance to play that much. Offensively BYU is averaging 22.8 points per game, 350.5 yards per game, and a third-down 34.85% conversion rate. All of these statistics, and their other offensive statistics rank towards the bottom in NCAA Division I. Just like the opposite side of the ball things won't be as easy as people probably anticipate against a decent Connecticut defense. Although BYU likes to put the ball in the air more than run by passing the ball 56.16% of the time, look for them to try to establish something on the ground which will eat some clock.

Defensively BYU is allowing 26.8 points per game, 414 yards per game, and a third-down 35.29% conversion rate. Those averages are not that great but they have faced some pretty tough offensive competition their last four games. Tonight, this will easily be the worst offense they have seen all season and I expect Bronco Mendenhall to have his team geared up to make a lot of stops. In short, don't expect Connecticut to score many points.

For one of your College Football Picks I recommend under the total in this matchup. This should be a grind it out defensive battle from opening kick until the final minute. Expect BYU to ultimately win this game but in a really low-scoring affair as defensively they will be tough to score against tonight, back the under.

College Football Pick: Under the total of 44 (-106) at Pinnacle.

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