Breaking Down Week 9’s Biggest Saturday Movers

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Kevin Stott

Friday, October 27, 2017 1:47 PM GMT

Friday, Oct. 27, 2017 1:47 PM GMT

Let’s look all of the sides that have moved 3 or more for Saturday's college football action and the totals that have seen at least a 4-point moves -- and then offer up a pair of chalky side picks despite their line movement.


NCAAF WEEK 9 HIGHEST POINT SPREAD: WIS -26½ -110 vs. Illinois (Bovada)

LOWEST TOTAL: 40½, Michigan State at Northwestern

HIGHEST TOTAL: 79, Missouri-Connecticut (Bovada)

BIGGEST SIDES MOVERS: 6 points—FAU @ WKU, Fresno St. vs. UNLV

BIGGEST TOTALS MOVER: 8 points—FAU @ WKU, 61 up to 69 (BetDSI)


No. 5 Wisconsin at Illinois

Open: WIS; High Now: WIS -27 (BookMaker)

No. 5 Wisconsin has gotten Sharp money from Sunday through Thursday, moving the Point Spread up 4 points to as high as 27 (BookMaker, JustBet, BetDSI) for this Big Ten game against Illinois from Memorial Stadium in Champaign on Saturday afternoon in Week 9 play (ESPN, 12 pm ET/9 am PDT). Badgers (7-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) bettors are no doubt keeping it simple here -- supporting the better team with the superior Defense (13.3 ppg, #6) now motivated by its undefeated season and CFP hopes against a Fighting Illinois (2-5 SU/ATS) side bordering on collapse, having L5 straight SU after a 2-0 start (BALL STATE, WKU) this 2017 Regular Season. When these two met last season at Madison, Wisconsin (40/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) won 48-3, covering ATS as 23½-point Home Favorites and we could be seeing a very similar scoreline here in the Land of Lincoln. The Trends show the Badgers to be 2-0 ATS the L2 meetings and 12-9 ATS (16-4 SU) since 1992. This one (result) should be over after the 1st Quarter.

Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 49, Illinois 3Free NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin -26Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

 

Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky

Open: FAU -1½; High: FAU -7½

A strong 6-point move on early Owls money in this Week 9 Conference USA affair on Saturday (STAD, TWITTER, 4:30 pm ET/1:30 pm PT) from Houchens-Smith Stadium in Bowling Green, Ky., with Sharp money solidly (65.5% Consensus Wagers Placed) fading host Western Kentucky (4-2 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) so far and backing Florida Atlantic (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS). WKU has three DBs listed as Questionable and another (De’Andre Simmons) Out for the Season with an ACL Injury, while the Hilltoppers also one DL listed as Questionable (Evan Sayner, Leg) and another Out for the Season (Jalen Madden, Knee) but those injuries have probably had little effect on bettors who have already moved this number. The Trends here support QB Jason Driskel and the Owls' money move with FAU 3-1 ATS the L4 against WKU overall and 3-1 ATS the L4 meetings in Bowling Green but bettor beware as the Hilltoppers opened up a can of whoop-ass on FAU last year, trouncing the Owls, 52-3 and easily covering ATS as big 21-Point Road Favorites. But WKU was a much better team in 2016 as the Point Spread in 2017 reveals. This seems like one best avoided now and even the Total (69, Bovada, up from opening 61) seems suspect after moving up 8 points on heavy Over money with FAU allowing 100, 86, 68 and 65 Total points in its L4 games. 

Predicted Final Score: WKU 33, Florida Atlantic 32Free NCAAF Pick: Pass

 

UNLV at Fresno State

Open: FSU -15; High Now: FSU -21

Sharps have been all over Point Spread darlings Fresno State -- whICH shot up to #1 Top Cat on our weekly Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats rankings by virtue of its perfect 7-0 ATS mark -- for this MWC game (ATSN, 10 pm ET) from Bulldog Stadium in Fresno between upstart Fresno State (67.2% Consensus) and UNLV (2-5 SU, 4-3 ATS). After upsetting San Diego State in San Diego, the Sharps were eager to back the Bulldogs in this spot and with the Rebels' Defense being somewhat suspect (allowed 52, 34 and 41 points L3 games all SU Losses), expect the later in the week action to also be on Fresno State, possibly driving this one as high as 24, so if you like the Bulldogs, now might be as good as you’re going to get it (a lower Point Spread). The series Trends show UNLV is 3-1 ATS the L4 with the Rebels throttling Fresno State, 45-20 and covering ATS as big 9-point Home Favorites. The Bulldogs, who now have Oregon State transfer Mark McMaryion at QB, should win easily here in a perceived blowout.

Predicted Final Score: Fresno State 47, UNLV 17Free NCAAF Pick: FSU -20½ Best Line Offered: JustBet

 

Other Significant Week 9 Sides Movers

MICHIGAN opened -21 vs. Rutgers, up 3 points to 24

 NORTH TEXAS opened -7 vs. Old Dominion, up 4½ points to -11½ (-105, Heritage)

 UTSA TEXAS opened -13½ at UTEP, up 3 points to -16½ (5Dimes, YouWager)

Louisville opened -5½ at WAKE FOREST, down 3 points to 2½

San Diego State opened -11½ at HAWAI’I, down 3 points to 8½

Southern Cal opened -6 -105 at ARIZONA STATE, down 3 points to -3 (Bovada)

 

Significant Week 9 Totals Movers

Louisville-Wake Forest opened 58½, up 4 points to 62½

SJS-BYU opened 46½, up 4½ points to 51 (5Dimes)

FAU-WKU opened 61, up 8 points to 69 (BookMaker)

Arkansas State-New Mexico State opened 64½ -115, up 6 points to 70½

Kansas-Kansas State opened 59½, down 5 points to 54½ (BookMaker)

TCU-Iowa State opened 53 -115, down 5 points to 48 (BetOnline)

Utah-Oregon opened 54½, down 4½ points to 50

Texas State-Coastal Carolina 56½, down 4½ points to 52 (BetOnline)

Old Dominion-North Texas opened 67, down 6 points to 61

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