Breaking Down Week 7’s Biggest Saturday Movers: Which Side Should You Be On?

Georgia Bulldogs

Kevin Stott

Thursday, October 12, 2017 2:26 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 12, 2017 2:26 PM GMT

Let’s look at three FBS games on Saturday where we’ve seen significant movement, look at some of the other Point Spreads which have moved enough to draw attention.

HIGHEST POINT SPREAD: UCF -35 vs. East Carolina

LOWEST TOTAL: 40, Michigan State at Minnesota

HIGHEST TOTAL: 78, UCLA at Arizona

BIGGEST MOVER: UCF 29½ to 35

 

Saturday, October 14, 2017

East Carolina at #22 UCF — Open: UCF -29½ // Now: -35

Movement Analysis: The money has heavily been on QB McKenzie Milton and now-ranked (#22) Central Florida (72.9%) from Open up until Wednesday in this Week 7 American Athletic Conference play affair and it’s no wonder with the Knights (533.3 ypg Total Offense, #8) a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS, playing at Home at Bright House Networks Stadium in Orlando on Saturday (CBS-S, 7 pm ET), currently an FBS-best +23.1 ppg better than the Point Spread and playing a team (East Carolina) in Week 7 which is a money-burning 1-5 ATS and a complete sieve on Defense (599.5 ypg, #129 of 129, 7.67 ypp). Last year in this game, RB Adrian Killins Jr. and UCF—now a 35-point Favorite, the highest number on the board as well as the largest mover so far (5½ points) and the deserving Top Cat in our latest "Top 5 ATS Cats and Rats" weekly rankings—won 47-39 as 3-point Road Underdogs in Greenville, SC and the Knights have been a profitable 3-1 ATS the L4 in this series. UCF should score more and allow less this time around in a game that may near the 100-point mark.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Central Florida 67 East Carolina 31

Free College Football Pick: UCF -34½ Best Line Offered: at Heritage

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Georgia Tech at #11 Miami Florida — Open: MIAMI -10½ // Now: -5½

Movement Analysis: A big 5-point move downward on Sharp Georgia Tech money (59.0%) for this ACC matchup between the Yellow Jackets at #11 Miami Florida on Saturday from Hard Rock Stadium (Grass) in Miami Gardens, with Underdog backers betting the Hurricanes down to just 5½-point favorites at most sportsbooks after opening at 10½ on Sunday. Last year in this game in Atlanta, Miami Florida won 35-21 as 8½-point chalks and the recent and relevant series Trends strongly back the Canes here with QB Malik Rosier (11 TDs/3 INTs) and Miami 4-0 ATS the L4 and 7-1 ATS the L8 vs. WR Ricky Jeune (17.1 ypc, 3 TDs)and the Ramblin’ Wreck.

Tenth-year Head Coach Paul Johnson (54-49-5 ATS) and Georgia Tech are known for Rushing the heck out of the football and currently rank #2 in FBS in Rushing Offense and all-purpose QB TaQuon Marshall, RB KirVonte Bowman and the Yellow Jackets are #1 in FBS in Time of Possession (36 mpg). Whoever wins the TO battle may win here in what should be a terrific game from the Sunshine State in a game moved back 2 days from its original Oct. 12 scheduled date because of earlier rescheduling due to Hurricane Irma. Much of the reason this line has moved down is due to Hurricanes Injury concerns to key Offensive skill position players RB Mark Walton (Ankle, Out Indefinitely; leading Rusher with 428 yards)—sophomore Travis Homer is expected to start in his place—and WR Ahmmon Richards (Hamstring, Questionable; 2nd-leading Receiver with 7 Receptions for 174 yards, 24.9 ypc, TD). Tech can definitely win this one.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Georgia Tech 27 Miami Florida 26

Free College Football Pick: Georgia Tech +200 Best Line Offered: at The Greek

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Missouri at #4 Georgia — Open: GEORGIA -27½ // Now: -31

Movement Analysis: The Sharps have been all over #4 Georgia (63.5%) against Missouri (1-4 SU/ATS) in this SEC showdown from Sanford Stadium (Grass) in Athens on Saturday (7:30 pm ET, SEC Network, WatchESPN) and the way the Bulldogs Defense has been playing (10.0 ppg, #2 Scoring Defense), it’s no big surprise and expect more Georgia money to come in between now and kickoff with the 33-range a possibility. Last Regular Season, 2nd-year Head Coach Kirby Smart (11-7 ATS) and Georgia (6-0 SU, 5-1 ATS) edged Missouri at Columbia, 28-27, but failed to cover ATS as 7-point Road Favorites but RB Nick Chubb and the Bulldogs (38/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) are a better team this year while the Tigers (2-0 ATS vs. the Dawgs the L2 seasons) have slipped into Ratty territory, with just one SU Win (FCS Missouri State in Week 1 in Columbia) and one ATS Win (last week at Kentucky +8½ in a 40-34 Loss).

After actually going 14-4 SU in SEC play in 2013 and 2014, Missouri has gone a frustrating 3-16 SU the L19 in conference play, probably making it much harder to recruit football players to the university which officially became an SEC member in 2012 after playing in the Big 12 (and formerly the Big Eight) since 1907. Georgia (35.0 ppg, #39 Scoring Offense) has allowed 10, 19, 14, 3, 0 and 14 points and can smell the CFP Playoffs right now so expect Mizzou (27.2 ppg, Tied #80) to have trouble finding the end zone here in the Peach State in a boring blowout.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Georgia 40 Missouri 10

Free College Football Pick: Georgia 1st Half -19Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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Other Significant NCAA Football Week 7 Point Spread Movers (Wednesday 4 pm ET)

LOUISVILLE opened -17½, up to -22 vs. Boston College

MISSISSIPPI STATE -20½ -115, up to -24 vs. visiting Brigham Young

WESTERN MICHIGAN open -10, now up to as high as -14½ vs. Akron

Houston -9, up to as high as -14 (Bovada) at TULSA

SOUTHERN MISS opened -18, up to as high as -23 (BookMaker) vs. Utep

WEST VIRGINIA open -7, down to -3 (Heritage) vs. #24 Texas Tech

Utsa opened -5, down to as low as -2½ at NORTH TEXAS

New Mexico opened -2, now FRESNO STATE -2½ many places

>HOME TEAMS in CAPS

 

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