Breaking Down Week 6’s Biggest Saturday Moves: Why the Movement and Which Side Should You Be On?

Fresno State Bulldogs players in action

Kevin Stott

Thursday, October 5, 2017 2:25 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017 2:25 PM GMT

We’ve seen some pretty significant Point Spread movement on the week 6 betting menu. Let’s look at four games where there has been heavy swings along with others where the numbers have moved enough to make note of it and provide college football picks.

#5 Georgia at Vanderbilt 

Open: GEORGIA -12 (BetOnline) ?? 
High Now: -18 (Bovada)

The early week action has been heavy on #5 Georgia (64.5%), with this point spread moving 6 points already on the favorites Georgia over hosts Vanderbilt on Saturday (ESPN, 12 pm ET) in this SEC game. Such a low Total, it would seem there might be some value in taking a decent Home Underdog like the commodores (4-0 ATS as Home Underdogs in 2016) here with Vanderbilt ready for such a tough team after playing tough opponents Kansas State (VAN 14-7 KSU), #1 Alabama (VANDY 0-59 ALA) and Florida (VAN 24-38 FLA) back-to-back-to-back heading in here. Fourth-year Head Coach Derek Mason (22-16-1 ATS) and the Commodores upset Georgia in Athens last year, 17-16, winning outright as 14-point Underdogs and Vanderbilt is an impressive 4-0 ATS the L4 against the Dawgs, winning two of the four outright. The Commodores (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS) might be too good to be giving 18 points to in Nashville, even against Georgia (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) who has allowed just 3 points in its L2 games and has played all 5 of its games Under. Uga X needs to pee.
 

Predicted Final Score: Georgia 23 Vanderbilt 13Free NCAAF Pick: Vanderbilt +18 Best Line Offered: at Bovada

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187934, "sportsbooksIds":[bovada,1096,180,19,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Louisiana Lafayette at Idaho

Open: ULL -3 +100 (BetOnline) ?? 
Now: IDAHO -7½ (5Dimes)

Not only a Favorite-flip—perhaps the linemakers here were living in their own Private Idaho?—in this Sun Belt Conference meeting between host Idaho and Louisiana Lafayette on Saturday, (5 pm ET) but also heavy early money on host Idaho in its 2017 Homecoming game with the Wiseguys and some on the Public backing the Vandals. Idaho (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) should be able to score a passel o’ points against porous ULL (1-3 SU, 0-3-1 ATS) who have allowed 48 (FCS side SELA), 66 (Tulsa), 45 (Texas A&M) and 56 points (ULM) in four stone-cold Overs (98, 108, 76, 106 Total points scored). So why is the Total in this indoor game set under 70? Maybe because both Idaho Home games have gone Under (ID 28-6 SAC ST, ID 16-44 UNLV) and had a relatively low number of points scored? Last year when these two met, 5th-year Head Coach Paul Petrino (22-22-1 ATS) and Idaho won outright as 4-point underdogs in Louisiana, 23-13 in a game which went Under the Total. Idaho is 3-2 ATS vs. ULL the L5 meetings but the big question here (for anyone wanting to back the now-chalks) is, is there any value in laying over a TD with 10½ points of movement already? One thing is certain: Anyone jumping at Idaho +3 at Open will have a chance at making a very decent-sized Middle. This seems like smart money—the Travel (2,325 miles) and Time Zone (2, CT to PT) differences may also be factors—and an astute early correction to the proper Favorite.

 

Predicted Final Score: Idaho 47 Louisiana Lafayette 37Free NCAAF Picks: Over 64Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187594, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,180,19,93], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Southern Mississippi at UTSA 

Open: UTSA -4 (BetOnline) ??
High Now: -13½

A large, 9½-point move already on Sharp money (53.9%) on host UTSA against Southern Mississippi on Saturday night (FCBK, 7 pm ET) for this C-USA meeting from the Alamodome (FieldTurf) in San Antonio. Last season, 2nd-year Head Coach Frank Wilson (9-6 ATS) and the Roadrunners (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) trampled Southern Miss under foot, 55-32, easily covering ATS as 17-point Home Favorites in San Antonio. Bettors liked the fact that UTSA is unbeaten SU, will be coming off a Bye Week, are 3-1 ATS the L4 vs.Southern Miss (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) and 7-2 ATS L9 games overall dating back to last season.

 

Predicted Final Score: UTSA 40 Southern Mississippi 20Free NCAAF Pick: UTSA -13 Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3188318, "sportsbooksIds":[19,43,238,300,123], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

 

Fresno State at San José State

Open: FRESNO -11½ -115 (BetOnline) ?? 
High Now: -17

The thought here no doubt is that host San José State (1-5 SU, 2-4 ATS) really stinks this year while Fresno State (62.6% money) has been perfect ATS (4-0) and have already cut their Bulldog teeth on two of the best teams in the nation back-to-back in #1 Alabama (Week 2, lost 41-10 at Tuscaloosa) and #6 Washington (Week 3, 48-16 in Seattle). On Saturday (7:30 pm ET) at CEFCU Stadium (FieldTurf) in sunny San José San José State hosts Fresno State (16-5 SU L21 vs. SJS) in what will likely evolve/devolve into a MWC blowout. Last year, Fresno State lost at San José State in the last week of the season (16-14), but that was a very rare Bulldogs non-ATS cover with Fresno State 10-1 ATS its L11 dating back to last season. KeeSean Johnson (26 Receptions, 330 yards, 3 TDs, 12.7 ypc) and the Bulldogs checked in as the #8 ATS Cat in our Week 6 “11 ATS Cats and Rats List” rankings while the Spartans will likely be back on the ATS Rat List, having allowed 212 points the L4 games. This flight from (Fresno State minus) 11½ to 17 really seems like smart money as the eyeball test has shown the Bulldogs to be playing some pretty good football under 1st-year HC Jeff Tedford.

 

Predicted Final Score: Fresno State 44 San José State 23Free NCAAF Picks: Fresno State -17 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3187940, "sportsbooksIds":[238,1096,180,19,43], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here