Breaking Down Week 5’s Biggest Saturday Moves: Why the Movement and Which Side Should You Be On?

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 7:38 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 7:38 PM UTC

After much movement from Sunday to Wednesday on the NCAAF betting board for Week 5, the numbers are starting to settle in. Let’s take a look at three games where there has been solid Side point swings and offer up a pair of picks where it still seems wise.


Buffalo vs. Kent State

Open: BUF -4½ ?? 
High Now: BUF -7½ (Bovada)

Movement Analysis: The early week line movement in this Kent State-Buffalo Week 5 game from Dix Stadium (FieldTurf), Ohio is straight Cat versus Rat stuff, and seemingly smart money, with Buffalo 4-0 ATS and Kent State 1-3 ATS this year. The host Golden Flashes are averaging just 232.0 ypg in Total Offense while the upstart Bulls are 5-0-1 ATS the L6 Road meetings in this MAC series. With Kent State committing 37 Penalties (84.0 ypg) and its Defense allowing 504.37 ypg (#122) and yielding 21 TDs, the Wiseguys seem to definitely be onto something here on Saturday (3:30 pm ET) and Buffalo should win this one by double-digits. Count me in, but anything (Buffalo minus) 9 and up seems like lost value.

Last year when these two met, Kent State (L5-6 ATS) won outright at Buffalo, 44-20 as 3-point Favorites but things done changed man and the Bulls already have as many SU Wins (2—2-10 SU in 2016) and ATS Wins (4—4-7 ATS in 2016) this season as they did all of last and it’s still September. Anyone getting this one early (-4½ to -6) probably did well for themselves and this will be the first time that Buffalo has been a Road Favorite since 2015 (at Miami-Ohio, -7), with the opening line and this early week movement a testament to how bad Kent State (2-4-1 ATS L2 years as Home Underdog) may be.

 Predicted Final Score: Buffalo 40 Kent State 18Free NCAAF Week 5 Movers Pick: Buffalo -7 -115 at Pinnacle

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South Carolina vs. Texas A&M

Open: A&M -11 -115 ?? 
Low Now: A&M -8½ (BetOnline)

Movement Analysis: The movement here is on the Road Underdog, South Carolina with a 2½-point swing already (Wednesday) with the early money more than likely factoring in the Ankle Injury and subsequent surgery starting QB Nick Starkel, leaving the Aggies with Kellen Mond 50-99, 649 yards, 6 TDs, 2 INTs) at QB and all the pressure on with the team’s other backup QB, Jake Hubenak also injured. So perceived A&M QB issues—and South Carolina has a good and healthy one in Jake Bentley—are a big part of this downward flight for a SEC game at Kyle Field (Grass) in College Station on Saturday (SEC, 7:30 pm ET). A&M (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS) defeated the Gamecocks in South Carolina last season, 24-13, failing to cover as huge 20½-point Road Favorites, starting a horrific run of 9 consecutive ATS Losses to end the 2016 Regular Season along with A&M’s bowl game against Kansas State.

Expect the Aggies to keep the ball on the ground much with its sensitive QB position with Trayveon Williams (328 yards, 6.6 ypc, 4 TDs), Keith Ford (232 yards, 5.2 ypc, 5 TDs) and Kendall Bussey (206 yards, 6.2 ypc, TD) getting the ball much for 6th-year Head Coach Kevin Sumlin (23-36 ATS) who head in 3-1 SU Nicholls State (24-14), ULL (45-21) and against SEC foe Arkansas in OT last Saturday in Week 4, 50-43 at the theoretical Neutral Site AT&T Stadium in Arlington. South Carolina was 1-3-1 ATS as a Road Underdog last season and the Gamecocks and 2nd-year HC Will Muschamp (5-6-1 ATS) are also 3-1 SU with Wins against NC State, Missouri, and Louisiana Tech and South Carolina heads in 2-2 ATS. Pass.


Predicted Final Score: Texas A&M 33 South Carolina 27Free NCAAF Week 5 Movers Pick:  None

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San José State vs. UNLV

Open: UNLV -9½ -115 ?? 
High Now: UNLV -13 (Pinnacle)

Movement Analysis: Bright light city gonna set my soul, gonna set my soul on fire...Las Vegas and old Sam Boyd Stadium (Turf-Tech) is the Site of this Saturday night MWC matchup between San José State and UNLV from Sin City (ESPN, 10:30 pm ET) and Sunday-Wednesday bettors have moved this Point Spread 3½ points already—the market tested 13½ late Tuesday at Heritage but flattened out to 13 by early Wednesday—no doubt fading choppy San José State (1-4 SU, 2-3 ATS). But putting money or recommending people to do so with UNLV (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS) was laying double-digits seems like scary proposition—remember the Fumblin’ Rebels lost to FCS side Howard here in Sin City in Week 1 as 44½-point Favorites, 43-40—especially knowing 1st-year HC Brent Brennan (2-3 ATS) and the Spartans are 4-0 ATS L4 and 6-1 the L7 against UNLV (SJS 2-0 ATS L2 at UNLV).

But remember San José State has L3 ATS overall (TEX, UTAH, UTAH ST) scoring 0, 16 and 10 points and the Spartans have allowed 56, 54, 61 points respectively in those blowouts. The Over (65, Bovada) might be a more logical way to approach this game with the Weather warming up in this corner of the Mojave Desert and expected to be perfect for football on Saturday night (Clear Skies, Low 68°). The Rebels and 3rd-year HC Tony Sanchez (11-14 ATS) were 1-3 ATS as Home chalks last season and should roll here, but movement solidly past that Key Number of 10 and the likely later in the week money either on UNLV or ambivalent, maybe looking at the First Half Over (32½, BookMaker) is the best route. There are better games.


Predicted Final Score:  UNLV 41 San Jose State 26Free NCAAF Week 5 Movers Pick: None

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Other Significant NCAAFl Week 5 Point Spread Movers (Wednesday 1 pm ET; HOME TEAM IN CAPS)


FRIDAY—Nebraska opened -9½, now as low as -6½ at ILLINOIS

FRIDAY—Southern Cal opened -6, as low as -3½ at WASHINGTON STATE

MINNESOTA opened -9½ -115, up to as high as -13 almost everywhere vs. Maryland

GEORGIA TECH opened -6½ -115, up to -9½ everywhere vs. North Carolina

KANSAS STATE opened -13, now up to -17 almost everywhere vs. Baylor

Navy opened -2½ -115, up to as high as -7½ (Jazz, ABC Islands) vs. TULSA

FIU opened -10, now up to as high as -13 almost everywhere vs. Charlotte

PITT opened -23 down to 20 almost everywhere vs. Rice

ARKANSAS opened -20, now -17 almost everywhere vs. New Mexico State

Air Force opened -1, now PK or NEW MEXICO -1 almost everywhere

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