Breaking Down Week 13’s Biggest Saturday Movers: Why the Movement and Which Side Should You Be On?

Kevin Stott

Thursday, November 23, 2017 7:41 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 23, 2017 7:41 PM UTC

Again, the Sharps are pounding select Big Ten Conference games early in the week, this time supporting #12 Penn State and #23 Northwestern in Regular Season Road finales at Illinois and Maryland respectively.

Saturday, November 25, 2017#12 Penn State at Maryland—Open: Penn State -18 // High Now: Penn State -22

Movement Analysis: This Big Ten Regular Season finale has seen a 4-point move upward from -18 to -22 on early Penn State money with the Total at 58 for this game between host Maryland and Saquon Barkley and the Nittany Lions on Saturday. Trace McSorley and #12 Penn State are out of the CFP Playoff picture so seeing Barkley and McSorley have big statistical days to end the regular slate against the Terrapins might be the idea but it’s hard to see Penn State Head Coach James Franklin want to put the pedal to the floor against Maryland, with avoiding an upset probably a big priority mentally for the 4th-year HC, although the Wiseguys moving this number the way it’s gone is understandable with the Nittany Lions (9-2 SU, 7-4 ATS) profitable record ATS the L2 seasons (16-8-1) 

These two have played each of the L3 seasons, with Maryland (4-7 SU, 5-6 ATS) winning 20-19 in State College in 2013 (PSU -3), Penn State winning but not covering in a Neutral Site game in 2015, 31-30 (PSU -6) and the Nittany Lions winning SU and ATS last year (2016) by a 38-14 scoreline, winning outright (yes) as 2½-point Home Underdogs. You read it right, Weedhopper.

The Trends here show Penn State 3-2 ATS the L5 meetings (since 1992), with both schools joining the Big Ten Conference meaning they’re going to be banging helmets a whole lot more in that far off thing but coming any second thing they call The Future. Here it is Now. Penn State comes in on a 3-game slide ATS (MSU, RUT NEB) while the Tackling Turtles have gone 2-5 ATS their L7. The final score seems like it will be pretty close to the current Point spread, so no marked advantage at the betting windows is perceived. The Nittany Lions have no onus to crush the hosts here, and maybe looking at backing Penn State in the 1st Half market may be the wisest idea as this is the last Regular Season game and both coaches might want to give some second- and third-stringers Playing Time if the outcome is already obvious by the 4th Quarter.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Penn State 35 Maryland 18Free College Football Pick: No Action

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#23 Northwestern at Illinois — Open: Northwestern -14 // High Now: Northwestern -16½

Movement Analysis: The Wildcats (overwhelming 71.3% Consensus, Wednesday) have been on a major violet roll, Illinois continues to wallow in the Fall mud, so the Sharps jumped all over Northwestern (8-3 SU/ATS) early in this Big Ten regional rivalry, a fight for The Land Of Lincoln Trophy which has Honest Abe’s big hat on it, moving the number up as many as 2½ points midweek against host Illinois (2-9 SU, 5-6 ATS). Even with this game at Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Champaign on Saturday afternoon, expect Head Coach Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats to paint the town purple as this team has W6 straight games SU and ATS and are 8-1 ATS the L9 overall, against some pretty good competition, Zuzu.

The Trends here show QB Clayton Thorson (14 TDs/11 INTs) and Northwestern are a money-making, chip-taking, Bookie-breaking 12-4 ATS the L16 and 6-2 ATS the L8 meetings downstate in Champaign. The Cats are also 6-0 ATS their L6 against Teams With Losing Records, 7-1 ATS the L8 on FieldTurf, 20-8 ATS their L28 Big Ten Conference games and 7-2 ATS their L9 Road games while Illinois is 5-11 ATS its L16 at Home, 3-7 ATS its L10 in November, 6-27 ATS L23 after Allowing 40+ Points in Previous Game but the Fighting Illini are 4-1 ATS in their L5 overall and 4-0 ATS L4 on the modern, broken-up little rubber-pieces FieldTurf playing surface. This seems like a great game to back the chalks, even with the line movement so far and this spread could still trickle up before kick. Northwestern won last year in Evanston, 42-21, covering ATS as 16-point Home chalks. What time does the train leave?

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Northwestern 40 Illinois 11Free College Football Pick: Northwestern -17½ Best Line Offered: at BookMaker

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Oregon State at Oregon — Open: Oregon -21½ // High Now: Oregon -25½

Movement Analysis: The Grinch is a pale, pukey green and you know Oregon(6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS) has uniforms in that funky shade of the color so maybe the Ducks break them out for this year’s Civil War against their rivals, Oregon State (1-10 SU, 3-7-1), at Home in Eugene? This Pac-12 Regular Season finale for the Ducks and the Beavers from Autzen Field (FieldTurf) in Eugene on Saturday (ESPN2, 7 pm EST/4 pm PST) has seen the line move up 4 points from Oregon (52.9% Consensus) minus 21½ to 25½ (Total 63) with Sharps all over the hosts here. Why? Maybe partially because of the Beavers horrific Scoring Defense (40.6 ppg, #125) and because Oregon State has L9 straight SU and L3 straight ATS, allowing 37, 49 and 40 points in those losses.

The recent series Trends reveal that Oregon State is 3-1 ATS the L4 Civil Wars—the Union is an unbeaten 1-0 SU and ATS against the Confederates—and 7-5 ATS the L12 meetings (OREGON 10-2 SU) with the Over 6-3 the L9 games played in Eugene. But the Beavers were better in those seasons and the Ducks won’t want to fall to 6-6 SU and the .500 mark against their rivals at Home with them being so down and this early money may be smart money although the 1st Half line may be worth a look with Oregon possibly already up by 17 to 24 after the first 30 minutes of play at Autzen Stadium. Prefer the Total (Over) to a Side in this one from the Pacific Northwest.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Oregon 47 Oregon State 27Free College Football Pick: Over 62½ -107 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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SAN DIEGO STATE opened -18 vs. New Mexico, up 2 points to -20

Iowa opened -2 at NEBRASKA, up 2 to -4 (Bovada)

#8 OHIO ST opened -10 vs. Michigan, up 2½ points to -12½ (Bovada)

Florida Atlantic opened -20½ at CHARLOTTE, up 2 points to -22½ (Bovada)

NEVADA opened PK vs. Unlv, up 3 points to -3

NEW MEXICO STATE opened -8 vs. Idaho, up 2 points to -10

#9 Notre Dame opened PK at #20 STANFORD, up 2½ to Notre Dame -2½

HOUSTON opened  -6½ versus Navy, down 2 points to -4½

Missouri opened  -12 at ARKANSAS, down 3 points to -9 (JustBet)

MARSHALL opened -4½ vs. Southern Miss, down 2 points to -2½

Arkansas State opened -10 at UL MONROE, down 2 points -8

#19 LSU opened -11½ vs. Texas A&M, down 2 points to -9½

#4 Clemson opened -16 at SOUTH CAROLINA, down 2½ points to -13½

 

Indiana at Purdue, opened 47, up 4 points to 51

Boston College at Syracuse, opened 55, up 3 points to 58

Duke at Wake Forest, opened 55, up 3½ points to 58½ (BookMaker)

#14 Washington State at #15 Washington, open 51, down 3½ points to 47½

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