Breaking Down Week 12’s Biggest Saturday Movers: Big Ten Heavies

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 17, 2017 7:43 PM UTC

Friday, Nov. 17, 2017 7:43 PM UTC

Three ranked Big Ten teams have seen a load of action on them at the betting windows early this week, all getting enough money to see the Point Spreads in their games move away from them 2½ or 3 points

 #19 Michigan vs #5 Wisconsin — Open: WISCONSIN -9½ // Low Now: WISCONSIN -7½

Movement Analysis: The Sharps simply thought the 9½ looked high to their Power ratings and expectations, with Michigan money Michigan (61.5% Consensus) moving this big, Big Ten game down 2 points from 9½ to 7½ on early action (Sunday-Wednesday). Wisconsin will try to rush the ball down the throats of Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines  and these are two of the best Scoring Defense in FBS, with Michigan (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) coming in ranked #9 (16.4 ppg) and Wisconsin at #3 (15.4 ppg) although Strength of Schedule(s) also needs to be taken into consideration.

Logic says points come really scarce here, like last season, especially with so much on the line for 3rd-year Head Coach Paul Chryst (21-15-1 ATS) and the host Badgers (10-0 SU, 6-4 ATS), ranked #5 in the the latest CFP Playoff rankings, behind SEC behemoth and #1 Alabama, defending national champions and #2 Clemson, potential ACC survivor #3 Miami and likely Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield and #4 Oklahoma. The Total is at 39 and 40. The Trends here show the Badgers to be a profitable 3-0 ATS the L3 meetings against Michigan and an even better 4-0 ATS the L4 at Home in Madtown. Last year, Wisconsin lost 14-7 at Michigan, but were getting 11½ points as an undervalued Road Underdog in Ann Arbor in Week 5. A deeper handicapping dive reveals Fish with Flashlights on their heads and the Badgers to be 6-1 ATS L7 meetings (4-3 SU) with 4 of 6 dates, including that last one, going Under.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Michigan 21 Wisconsin 20Free College Football Pick: Michigan +7½Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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 Kentucky vs #7 Georgia—Open: GEORGIA -24 // Low Now: GEORGIA -21

Movement Analysis: A 3-point move down in this SEC game from Athens  with the Wiseguys knowing the Bulldogs lost much of their valuable big-picture Motivation after losing at Auburn in Week 10, possibly jettisoning them from the CFP Playoff picture and also thinking the 24 just looked a little high for an Opener. And with a Total of 51, linemakers are thinking this will be a fairly low-scoring game, meaning the 24 (now 21) would theoretically carry much weight should the game actually turn out to be low-scoring but the Weather Forecast (Partly Cloudy, 69°) looks great for playing some Offensive Fall Football from this distance with bodies and fingertips warm in the Peach State although why almost all Wide Receivers wears gloves these days will always blow my mind. Feeling the pigskin leather with one's fingetip skin matters. Or at least used to matter.

The Trends here show Georgia (6-4 ATS) is 11-1 SU the L12 meetings (7-5 ATS) against Kentucky who are 1-5 ATS L6 overall. The Over is 4-1 in both the L5 Georgia and Kentucky games this 2017 Regular Season for two teams which started playin all Unders (Georgia first 4, Kentucky first 3). The Total is 9-9 (Over-Under) the L18 meetings overall. The thought here is that the Wildcats will score some points even on the Road and against one of the best Scoring D’s in the nation, meaning maybe that Sharp money will indeed end up being smart money.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Georgia 33 Kentucky 17Free College Football Pick: No Action

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San Jose State vs Colorado State — Open: COLORADO STATE -31 // High Now: COLORADO STATE -33 

Movement Analysis: So far just a 2-point move upward from Colorado State money, but expect the line in this one to continue to rise up until kickoff on Saturday afternoon and this one’s my Best Bet this NCAA College Football Week 12 with everything pointing toward a 40+ point blowout in this Week 12 MWC affair from Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium. Why? Because QB Nick Stevens and the Rams have two pretty good rushers in RB Dalyn Dawkins and Izzy Matthews and one fabulous and future NFL WR in Michael Gallup who will head into this game with 87 Receptions, 1,298 Receiving yards and 7 TDs, meaning if Stevens can target him 14-18 times, then maybe he hits the 100 Reception mark in the finale? I kid. (No, I don’t.) No better team than San Jose State (43.9 ppg, #128 of 129) on which to pad those Offensive numbers, eh Skipper? Opponents have scored 62 TDs (FBS high) and made 16 FGs vs. the Spartans.

The Trends here show Colorado State to be 1-3 ATS the L4 meetings but with the Rams sitting on a 6-5 SU Record and facing a weak Spartans side, we can toss those numbers out the window, especially with the last meeting between these two coming back in 2014 when Bitcoin was trading in the $350 range (mid-December). And with this being the Rams last Home game, as well as any game, or the Regular Season, expect a go-out-in-style effort from the Colorado State for its Seniors and loyal Fans. This one should get ugly early on and a 1st Half wager on the already Bowl-eligible Colorado State is also strongly advised (CSU -20, BookMaker). San Jose State comes in 1-7-1 ATS their L9 (3-7-1 ATS in 2016), the Spartans are a weak 1-5 ATS as a Road Underdog and 4-15 ATS in that role over the past 3+ seasons and SJS has allowed 56, 54, 61, 41, 27, 37, 41, 52 and 59 points in its L9 games. Do I need to keep typing?

 PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Colorado State 59 San Jose State 10Free College Football Picks: Colorado State -32 & Colorado State First Half -20 Best Line Offered: at BookMaker

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#18 MEMPHIS opened -11 vs. Smu, up 2 points to -13

#2 MIAMI opened -17 vs. Virginia, up 2 to -19

#8 OHIO ST opened -38 vs. Illinois, up 3 points to -41

#10 OKLAHOMA ST opened -17½ vs. Kansas State up 2½ points to -20

#13 PENN ST opened -23½ vs. Maryland, up 3 points to -26½

#3 OKLAHOMA opened -34½ vs. Kansas, up 2½ points to -37

#21 LSU opened -14 at TENNESSEE, up 2 points to -16

Georgia Tech opened -8½ vs. DUKE, down 2½ points to -6 

WYOMING opened at -1, now Fresno State -1

Marshall opened at -1, now UTSA -1


Michigan at Wisconsin, opened 42, down 3 points to 39

Minnesota at Northwestern, opened 47, down 6 to 41

Texas at West Virginia, opened 57½, down 4 points to 53½

South Alabama at Georgia State, opened 47, down 3 points to 44

Illinois at Ohio State, opened 57, down 3 points to 54

Maryland at Michigan State, opened 48, down 5 points to 43


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