Breaking Down Week 11’s Biggest Saturday Movers and Which Side Should You Be On?

Michigan Wolverines QB

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 10, 2017 2:24 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 10, 2017 2:24 PM GMT

The betting board is still bumping and as we look at the NCAA Football FBS Week 11 games that have seen their Point Spreads move 3 points or more along with the Totals which have moved at least 4 points (at specific time of writing).

Connecticut at #14 UCF—Open: UCF -37 // High Now: UCF -40½

Movement Analysis: A 3½-point move up on early Central Florida action (59-41% Consensus) has seen the Point Spread level out with now with 57% of the bets on UConn now with the highest UCF line at -40½ for this American Athletic Conference East game from Orlando between the unbeaten Knights (8-0 SU, 6-2 ATS) and the Huskies (3-6 SU/ATS). The two have played four times from 2013 to 2016 with UCF winning and covering ATS at Home in 2013 and in East Hartford in 2016 with UConn winning and covering ATS at Home in 2014 and in Orlando in 2015.

Reading into the line, the thought here is that the linemakers and their Power Ratings think ranked and motivated UCF will crush the Huskies, and UConn has already lost by 39 (to Memphis) and that Davy O’Brien Semifinalist McKenzie Milton and UCF has won by 40 (vs. Austin Peay), but even Paul Bunyan gets tired of laying lumber so large and it’s hard to see where the motivation to win by 40 or more will come from with the Knights team, even at Home. A deeper handicapping dive looking for UCF favored by 20 points or more in the role of Conference Chalks over the L10 years and we find UCF is 8-5 ATS including covering ATS once in that spot as big 35-point Favorites against East Carolina in a 63-21 win in Week 6 this 2017 Regular Season. The Huskies are 4-3-1 ATS as an AAC Underdog of 20+ points over that span, covering ATS in that exact role last week (getting 23) in a 37-20 Home Loss to USF. Forty points just seems too large an ask.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Central Florida 46 Connecticut 20Free College Football Pick: No Action

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Wake Forest at Syracuse — Open: SYR -3½  // High Now: PK -110

Movement Analysis: Not a Favorite-flip (yet), this ACC game between host Syracuse and Wake Forest from Syracuse, NY in a game which has seen the line move down 3½ points on heavy Wake Forest money, making this a PK (Pick ‘em) game at most Offshore sportsbooks on Thursday. The Total has also moved drastically in this game, going up as many 8 points from 58½ to 66½ on heavy Over money. Syracuse (4-5 SU, 6-2-1 ATS)—a quiet Under team (7-2)—heads in here on a 3-game ATS Winning Streak and the Orange have gone 7 in a row without losing their backers any money (6-0-1 ATS L7, Push vs Pitt) while the Demon Deacons (5-4 SU, 7-2 ATS) chave W4 of 5 ATS while going 1-4 SU over that span against some pretty stiff competition (FSU, CLEM, GT, LOU, ND).

The Trends here show Syracuse to be 5-1 ATS the L6 meetings (4-2 SU) between these two and 3-0 ATS the L3 played at Home in the friendly confines of the Carrier Dome in Syracuse, NY. The money has been on Wake Forest so far and the line says what this game is, pretty much a toss-up despite the Site with the Demon Deacons the tougher team by a hair but Syracuse having the Site, some Momentum and that 6-0-1 ATS overall mark the wind behind its sails. The early Sharp money seems correct to me, especially the few of those early birds who go in at post and took Wake Forest +3½.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Wake Forest 26 Syracuse 22Free College Football Pick: Wake Forest +1 -115 Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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#21 Michigan at Maryland — Open: MICH -13½ // High Now: MICH -17

Movement Analysis: Here, it’s a 3½ point move up on Wolverines money for this Big Ten game from Byrd Stadium in one of the strongest movers on the Week 11 NCAA College Football betting board with heavy (67.5% Consensus) and obvious Sharp money backing the visitors. So why the influx of Michigan money? It’s simple. Worries about the QB position for the host Terrapins who saw Max Bortenschlager (Shoulder) injured last game and Questionable against the Wolverines with both Kasim Hill (ACL) and Tyrrell Pigrome (Knee) both already out for the season, meaning that Sophomore walk-on Ryan Brand will be the guy if Bortenschlager can’t go. And even with Michigan QB Wilton Speight (Back) out, Wolverines bettors must like the way redshirt Freshman QB Brandon Peters (below) has been gallantly leading the team these last couple of weeks.

With the Terrapins (3-4 Big Ten) ranking #11 in the Big Ten against the Rush (18 Rushing TDs allowed), we can expect Michigan to see signal-caller Peters to be handing the ball off much to RBs Kartan Evans and Chris Higdon early on to try to get out to a nice lead. The Trends show Michigan (375/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes) to be 3-1 ATS the L4 vs. Maryland, winning and covering ATS last season at Home in Ann Arbor, 59-3, no doubt another reason the Wiseguys have pounded Michigan like a veal cutlet (MICH -30). The Wolverines have outscored the Terrapins over the past two seasons, 87-3, holding them without TD and have allowed just 2 TDs wto Maryland over the past 12 quarters, both by dudes named Brown (CJ, Wes) in the 4th Quarter of the Terps’ 23-16 comeback win in College Park in 2014.

PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Michigan 37 Maryland 10Free College Football Pick: Michigan -16½ -112Best Line Offered: at The Greek

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#16 PENN STATE opened -28 vs. Rutgers, up 3 points to -31

 ARIZONA opened -19 vs. Oregon State, up 3 to -22

Florida Atlantic opened -3 -115 at LOUISIANA TECH, up 3 to -6

MISSOURI opened -8 vs. Tennessee, up 4½ points to -12½

#4 CLEMSON opened -19 vs. Florida State, down 3 points to -16

Southern Cal opened -16½ at COLORADO, down 3 to -13½

TEXAS opened -34 vs. Kansas, down 3 points to -31

 

Duke at Army, opened 43½, up 5 points to 48½

Louisiana Lafayette at Ole Miss, opened 64, up 4 points to 68

MTSU-Charlotte, opened 44½, up 6½ points to 51

Florida Atlantic at Louisiana Tech, opened 64½, up 6½ points to 71

Southern Miss at Rice, opened 59½, down 10½ points to 49

#2 Georgia at #10 Auburn, opened 60, down 5½ to 54½

#21 Michigan at Maryland, opened 49, down 4 points to 45

Georgia State at Texas State, opened 50½, down 4 points to 46½ 

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