Breaking Down Week 10’s Biggest Saturday Movers

penn state michigan state

Kevin Stott

Friday, November 3, 2017 1:17 PM GMT

Friday, Nov. 3, 2017 1:17 PM GMT

Let’s look some extremes on this week’s NCAAF betting board, list the sides that have moved 3 or more and totals that have moved at least 4 points and then offer up a pair of picks.

No. 16 Auburn at Texas A&M

Open: AUB -11; High Now: AUB -15

Auburn (6-2 SU/3-5 ATS) has seen Sharp money come in on it from Sunday through Thursday, moving the number up 4 points for the Tigers' Week 10 SEC game at Texas A&M (5-3 SU/4-3-1 ATS) on Saturday (ESPN, 12 pm ET) from Kyle Field. Auburn RB Kamryn Pettway (Fractured Scapula) is listed as Out Indefinitely and may be done for the season for the Plainsmen (77/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BookMaker) and Head Coach Gus Malzahn’s squad is the highest-ranked 2-Loss team in the CFP, but the schedule couldn’t be harder if The Devil himself made it with games against #1 Alabama and #2 Georgia on the immediate horizon. This one game against the Aggies (3-2 SEC) and their legendary 11th man won’t be easy but Malzahn has said that “... [Texas A&M] is all that matters” to his team and a setback here would definitely kill any remote Conference or CFP hopes for Auburn.

So this is “Motivation” money in my mind, with the bettors not caring about Pettway’s absence or the location. The series Trends show a strange and snakelike (but consistent) pattern with the Road team winning outright and SU 5 consecutive times, the L4 times in a row as an outright Road Underdog. So theoretical edge to Auburn, although they are a heavy chalk here with Texas A&M (3-2 ATS L5 vs. Auburn) not as strong as past seasons and the Tigers still needing the Win here in the overall arc of their 2017 Regular Season. Although the movement is understood, this seems like too many points to give to a host team who can possibly win here.

Predicted Final Score: Auburn 33, A&M 26Free NCAAF Pick: Aggies +15

 

No. 4 Wisconsin at Indiana

Open: WIS -10; High Now: WIS -14

Another solid 4-point move on early Wisconsin money for the Badgers Big Ten game at Indiana on Saturday (ABC, 12 pm ET) from The Rock Bloomington in a game the visitors must win to stay in the CFP conversation, thus more “Motivation” money, and although we’ve seen a lesser number of large Side moves so far this week, the ones which have moved have moved solidly 4 points (or more) and pretty much settled, for the time being at least until that expected late rush of betting Friday and Saturday up until kickoff. The Trends here show #4 Wisconsin (40/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, BetDSI) is 4-0 ATS the L4 meetings at 3-1 ATS the L4 at Memorial Stadium but Wisconsin seems to have too much trouble completing long downfield passes and although the Defense is solid, seem unbalanced on Offense as their extremely lethargic and sloppy performance at Illinois revealed in Week 9. This Wisconsin team will be beaten very soon.

Predicted Final Score: Indiana 27, Wisconsin 25NCAAF Free Pick: Hoosiers +14

 

No. 7 Penn State at No. 24 Michigan State

Open: PSU -13; Low Now: PSU -8

The Sharps have been all over LJ Scott and Michigan State (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS), moving the Point Spread here down from its opening (Penn State minus) 13 to as low as 8 at one Offshore sportsbook (-125, BetOnline) on the Week 10 NCAA College Football betting board with CFB sports gamblers thinking the Spartan Stadium Site, the Spartans' upgrade in perceptions, the number itself (too high) and the reality that Penn State’s Big Ten and CFP chances took a big hit last weekend with the Nittany Lions' dramatic loss at Ohio State. So this pivotal Week 10 game from East Lansing on Saturday afternoon (FOX, 12 pm ET) has seen its spread move more than other game (5 points) so far, but like the Wisconsin-Indiana game above, this may not end up being such smart money and points could really be at a premium here with Rain in the Forecast.

Coming off that Loss to the Buckeyes and then having to go on the Road and play a ranked side is tough, but with QB Trace McSorley and Heisman Trophy candidate RB Saquon Barkley (5.6 ypc), Penn State (7-1 SU/ATS) has a big advantage at the key skill position spots on Offense and this is a team which has scored at least 31 points in its L4 games against some decent Big Ten opponents in Indiana, Northwestern, Michigan and Ohio State. The Trends reveal the Nittany Lions (25/1 to win 2018 CFP Championship, 5Dimes) to be 14-7 SU the L21 meetings in this series with Penn State going 1-3 ATS the L4, despite covering ATS as an 11-point Home Favorite in a 45-12 blowout in State College in the last game of the 2016 season.

Predicted Final Score: Penn State 31, Michigan State 18Free NCAAF Pick: Lions -8

 

Week 10 Significant Sides Movers

#24 MISSISSIPPI ST opened -28 vs. UMass, up 4 points to -32

SOUTH ALABAMA opened -2½ -115 vs. ULL, up 3½ to -6 (BookMaker)

ARKANSAS opened -26½ vs South Carolina, down 3 points to -23½

TULANE opened -9 vs Cincinnati, down 4 points to -5 (-106, Pinnacle)

No. 12 WASHINGTON open -21 vs Oregon, down 4 points to -17 (BookMaker)

FRESNO STATE opened -11 vs Brigham Young, down 4 points to -7 (-130, BetOnline)

 

Week 10 Significant Totals Movers

No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 11 Oklahoma State opened 73, up 4½ points to 77½

Texas No. 10 TCU opened 41½, up 5½ points to 47

No. 15 UCF at SMU opened 70, up 4½ points to 74½ (BetDSI)

SDS at SJS opened 47, up 4 points to 51

BYU at Fresno State opened 45, up 6 points to 51 (Bovada)

Army at Air Force opened 63, down 7 points to 56

South Carolina at No. 2 Georgia opened 49, down 4 points to 45

Wake Forest at No. 5 Notre Dame opened 60, down 5½ to 54½ (BetDSI)

Utah State at New Mexico opened 59½, down 4 points to 55½

Hawaii at UNLV opened 63½, down 5½ points to 58 (YouWager, Heritage)

UTEP at MTSU opened 49, down 4 points to 45

Southern Miss at Tennessee opened 54, down 5½ points to 48½

No. 19 LSU at No. 1 Alabama opened 51½, down 3 points to 48½

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