Breaking Down College Football Week 4’s Biggest Saturday Moves

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 21, 2017 6:14 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 21, 2017 6:14 PM UTC

A midweek look at the College Football football betting board shows fewer games with really big movement in Week 4. Let’s look at some games where the numbers have moved significantly and offer up some more movement-oriented NCAAF picks.

West Virginia at Kansas

Open: WV -16 ?? 

High Now: -22½ (Bovada)

Movement Analysis: Early bettors must have been impressed with Florida transfer QB Will Grier (1,027 Passing yards, 11 TDs, 2 INTs) and West Virginia (2-1 SU/ATS) and also be possibly thinking the opening number for this Big 12 overmatch from Memorial Stadium (FieldTurf) in Lawrence was a bit low drove this number up 6 points quickly (Sunday-Tuesday). Mountaineers backers (80% Consensus) also have to like the Trends which show West Virginia to be 14-2 ATS L16 Road games against a Team With a Losing Record and QB Peyton Bender (1,020 Passing yards, 6 TDs, 5 INTs) and Kansas being 7-16-1 L24 after an SU Loss and a weak 9-20 ATS L29 overall (31%).

But has all the perceived value in backing West Virginia (ODDS) been sapped in this movement from 16 to (a current low of) 22? Because this is a Big 12 Conference game and important to the visitors in that they are already chasing one Loss and should be high-scoring, WR Gary Jennings (130 All-Purpose Yards Per Game) and West Virginia should find a way to beat the host Jayhawks (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) in the 20- to 30-point range, making this one either a pass or a Parlay element with the early players getting the Mountaineers from -16 to -20 seemingly already getting “the best of it.” Last year, the Mountaineers rolled to a 48-21 win at Home but failed to cover ATS as big 31½-point favorites.

Predicted Final Score: West Virginia 56 Kansas 10NCAAF Week 4 Mover Pick: NoneNCAAF Movers Picks Record: 7-0-0

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Kent State at #19 Louisville

Open: LOU -37 ?? 

High Now: -44 (Pinnacle)

Movement Analysis: Bettors here had several things in mind, including #19 Louisville now chasing a Loss and mad after losing to ACC rival Clemson in Week 3 at Home as well as just how bad Kent State (0-3 ATS)—the most Penalized team in the nation (32 Penalties, 97.0 ypg)—have been so far this season. The MAC Golden Flashes Defense has allowed 492.7 ypg (#119) and giving up 19 TDs heading into Saturday’s Week #4 date against Louisville (64% Consensus) and 5th-year Kent State Head Coach Paul Hayes (16-29-1 ATS) have L5 ATS). So where does the value now lie? With Louisville and 2018 Heisman Trophy-winner Lamar Jackson (9/5 to win Heisman Trophy, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) going 1-5 ATS its L6 overall and the number moving so much, backing the Cardinals -44 is about as high as one would want to go, even with the Golden Flashes 11-27 ATS L38 Non-Conference games (28.9%) and 3-9 ATS L12 against Teams with Winning Records.


Predicted Final Score: Louisville 59 Kent State 10NCAAF Week 4 Mover Pick:  Louisville -44  at Pinnacle

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#24 Oregon at Arizona State

Open: ORE -11 ?? 

High Now: -16 +110 (Pinnacle)

Movement Analysis: As it seems to happen every Sunday night this season when the Opening NCAA Football odds are released Offshore, there has been heavy Oregon money (65%) in this Week 4 Saturday Pac-12 game from Tempe and Sun Devil Stadium (Grass) on Saturday, and that seems like smart money with Oregon going 21-6 ATS L27 on Grass and the Sun Devils 0-4 ATS their L4 on Grass—a strange thing with that old-fashioned Playing Surface being the choice of turfs in their own Home stadium in suburban Phoenix. Some Arizona State (1-2 SU, 0-2-1 ATS) fade money is also probably a part of the betting pie with the hosts failing to get the money this Regular Season and losing outright as 3-point Favorites at Home to MWC school San Diego State in Tempe in Week 2, 30-20.

The #24 Ducks (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) have crept into the Top 25 rankings and have done pretty well in this series of late, going 3-0 ATS L3 and 5-1 ATS the L6 against ASU, including a 54-25 blowout in Eugene last season which saw the hosts cover as 9½-point chalks. There should be plenty o’ points score here—QB Justin Herbert (10.81 YDS/A), RB Royce Freeman (460 yards, 9 TD) and the Ducks have put up 77 (Southern Utah), 45 (Nebraska) and 49 (Wyoming) in their three games. And with the Over 6-1 L7 meetings and 3-1-1 L5 in Tempe, a shootout may start with the game fairly close for a while before Oregon (24-9-1 ATS L34 Road games) shifts into that fifth gear and the Sun Devils might be finding themselves in another situation where they can’t match their opponents TD-for-TD—especially against the top team in FBS in scoring TDs (23). And quick-strike Oregon (609.0 Total Offense, #2) has some players who get a lot of yards when they touch the ball in RB Kani Benoit (10.0 ypc) and WR Charles Nelson (16.2 ypc), WR Johnny Johnson III (17.2 ypc) and WR Dillon Mitchell (12.0 ypc). This one should be that proverbial “track meet.”


Predicted Final Score: Oregon 55 Arizona State 31NCAAF Week 4 Mover Pick: Oregon -14½ -110 & Over 75 at Bookmaker

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