The final Tuesday MAC doubleheader of the season is upon us as the Western Michigan Broncos host the Bowling Green Falcons, and we offer our best Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan prediction based on the best college football odds.
Toledo halted Bowling Green's four-game winning streak, its longest since 2015, by clinching a 32-31 victory last week. They overturned the Falcons' dominant 28-10 halftime lead. This unexpected loss disrupted Bowling Green's momentum, putting Toledo in a significant position as the first 10-win team to compete in the MAC Championship Game since Buffalo in 2018.
Western Michigan, entering its game against Northern Illinois with a solid winning streak, including impressive double-digit victories against Eastern Michigan and Central Michigan, encountered an unexpected setback. The Broncos suffered a surprising 24-0 loss, marking their first shutout since a 2013 defeat against Buffalo. This abrupt halt not only concluded their recent winning streak but also underscored the need for the team to reassess strategies and regroup for the remainder of the season.
As part of our Week 13 college football predictions, here is our best Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan prediction and our college football picks (odds via our best college football betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan prediction: Week 13
Western Michigan +2 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
After Bowling Green nearly knocked off the conference’s only unbeaten team while Western Michigan was getting shut out last week, the Falcons will surely be the more popular play among the betting public. However, we prefer to be contrarian, as Bowling Green will have difficulty getting over a squandered opportunity. At the same time, the Broncos will be inspired on Senior Night despite being ineligible for a bowl game.
Western Michigan is the healthier team entering this matchup. Falcons quarterback Connor Bazelak and linebacker (and the team’s second-leading tackler) Joseph Sipp are dealing with nagging injuries, while leading rusher Terion Stewart (762 rushing yards, 6.1 yards per carry) has not played since November 1.
Bowling Green has had trouble protecting Bazelak lately, allowing five sacks to Toledo after entering last week ranked 124th in Havoc Allowed. Western Michigan has a significant advantage as it was ranked in the top 20 in Havoc Allowed before losing to Northern Illinois. It is also problematic when facing a Western Michigan defense whose strength is getting into the backfield, entering last week ranked in the Top 45 in Havoc.
The Falcons' run defense also played true to form last week, entering outside the top 100 in Line Yards and Rush Success, then giving up 131 yards on just 15 carries (8.7 yards per carry) to Toledo’s Peny Boone. Thus, we expect a Broncos offense, which averages nearly 34 points per game in conference home games this season, to take advantage of a Bowling Green defense that was worn down in the second half of last week’s game, allowing 55% of its total yards in the second half.
This is a three-star play, as Western Michigan is 3-1 ATS at home and 5-2 ATS in conference games this season, while Bowling Green is under .500 ATS (11-12) in conference games since the start of the 2021 season.
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Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan best odds
With DraftKings as the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a point spread as high as +2, it is the easy choice for our go-to shop. Playing Western Michigan’s moneyline, which is as high as +110 at DraftKings, is tempting at this number. We would not play the moneyline at anything shorter than +100, so FanDuel’s -104 odds would be a no-play. The Broncos have covered the spread in the last two head-to-head matchups, and the teams have won twice in the previous four.
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan odds
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan odds analysis
DraftKings opened with the highest number of our best sports betting sites, with Bowling Green at -2.5. There has been interesting line movement at FanDuel, as the line has jumped the fence from Sunday afternoon from Western Michigan -1.5 to +1.5. The early wagers are split 3/1 (74/26) in support of Bowling Green, and each team is 7-4 ATS this season.
All of the sites with the best sportsbook promos offer a total of 54.5, except for FanDuel, which is one point lower at 53.5. The only reported line movement thus far is at DraftKings, which saw its total tick up from an opening number of 54. Early wagers are slightly in favor of the Over, with a 57/43 split. Each team has seen the Over cash in seven of 11 games.
Bowling Green vs. Western Michigan game info
- When: Tuesday, Nov. 14 at 7:00 p.m. ET
- Where: Doyt L. Perry Stadium, Bowling Green, OH
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Weather: 57 degrees, 7% chance of precipitation, wind 5 mph SSW
Bowling Green-Western Michigan prediction made 11/20/2023 at 6:24 a.m. ET.
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