Both Illinois & Nebraska Finding the Endzone: Bet the 'Over'

Jeff Grant

Tuesday, September 23, 2014 2:26 PM GMT

The Illinois Fighting Illini and Nebraska Cornhuskers have both demonstrated the ability to be balanced offensively this season, which leads me to look to the total for my college football picks in this matchup.

Taking Care of the Football
Illinois is 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS through four games this season, as it comes off a 42-35 victory over Texas State as 10.5-point home favorites last Saturday, while going OVER the betting total of 61.5.

The Fighting Illini went 4-8 last year due to finishing with a minus-10 turnover margin, which is important to consider when making your college football picks this week, considering they’ve committed three more miscues than their opponents in 2014.

Over the last two-plus seasons, the program is 0-2 SUATS as road underdogs of 14.5 to 21 points, with the OVER cashing in each of those affairs.

 

Rolling Along
The Nebraska Cornhuskers completed its non-conference schedule with an unblemished record for the third time in seven seasons under head coach Bo Pelini, as it looks to build on a 41-31 victory over the Miami Hurricanes as 7.5-point home favorites, but it won the statistical battle by just 21 yards in that matchup.

The Cornhuskers have compiled a dominating 40-5 SU all-time record in night games at Memorial Stadium, with 30 of those victories coming by 13 or more points.

College football handicappers will find that the squad is 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS as favorites of 10.5 to 21 points since 2012, with the OVER going 5-2-1 in that situation.

 

Back Door Cover?
The Fighting Illini have dropped 18 of their last 20 Big Ten Conference openers, which can’t be ignored when looking over SBR's college football betting odds page, especially since Tim Beckman is 0-9 SU against ranked opponents in his five-plus seasons as a head coach (three years at Toledo).

Illinois is capable of sneaking within the number late in this matchup, considering quarterback Wes Lunt has completed 28 of 34 passes for 388 yards and five touchdowns with zero interceptions in the fourth quarter this year.

 

Balanced attack
Nebraska senior running back Ameer Abdullah rushed a career-high 35 times for 229 yards and two touchdowns last week, which moved him into third place in the school’s career rushing list behind Ahman Green and Mike Rozier.

The Cornhuskers should be able to move the ball freely against the Fighting Illini, as they racked up 521 total yards in last year’s 39-19 win as 8.5-point home favorites, which included 186 yards through the air.

 

Prediction
I’m going to look at the total for today's free picks, as the OVER is 4-0 in the Cornhuskers last four games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous contest.

Free College Football Pick:  Expect the match between Illinois and Nebraska to go 'over' the betting total 

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