Football bettors are working some of the Power 5 conferences hard and really adjusting the lines. We are ready to bring this to you and share our opinions as to what has happened.
It’s that time again, the battle between bettors and the best sportsbooks is happening on the front lines. As per usual, line moves are occurring daily, some hold-up, and others return to or close to their original starting spots.
Whatever the case, we honed into a trio of line moves in reviewing the college football odds, and we are ready to explain what exactly is happening.
Louisville Cardinals vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Saturday, October 17, 2020 – 2:30 PM ET at Notre Dame Stadium
Our first skirmish finds Notre Dame playing a fourth consecutive home game that will be in front of a smattering of Fighting Irish fans. Louisville is the opponent, since the Cardinals knocked off Western Kentucky in the opener, they have lost three straight and are 0-2-1 ATS.
What has gone wrong for the ‘Ville? It was known before the season the defense would have to come together, and that wasn’t a given. Louisville is permitting 34.5 points a contest, though that is not entirely on the stop troops. Unquestionably, the 14 turnovers this season has placed the defense in tough spots, and they have not been able to hold the line. Additionally, there’s been nothing special about the special teams, and that’s become an annoying issue.
With Notre Dame undefeated and ranked No. 4 in the polls, the Irish have jigged from -14 to -17 for this encounter.
If quarterback Ian Book and the offense scores at will, they cover the number at GT Bets. However, mobile QB’s that can run and pass has annually given Brian Kelly’s team fits, just like what we saw with Florida State last week when Notre Dame failed to cover. This could well happen again with the Irish a bit stale still playing at home even with 70 percent of bettor’s backing.
North Carolina Tar Heels vs. Florida State Seminoles
Saturday, October 17, 2020 - 7:30 PM ET at Doak Campbell Stadium
North Carolina’s offensive prowess was on full display last week, as they hung 56 points on Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels ran roughshod over the Hokies defenders, gaining a stunning 399 yards on the ground, which was complemented with 257 yards via the pass.
Florida State installed Jordan Travis to run its offense, and results were favorable. The Seminoles put up 26 points on Notre Dame. Though the Noles covered the spread on the best betting sites, the defense conceded 554 yards, and the Irish could have easily scored more if they wanted to be more aggressive.
Those making college football picks for this ACC conflict have aggressively bet on UNC (85% of tickets) and shoved them from -9.5 to -13.5. With the number below two touchdowns, it’s unlikely Florida State has the talent to curtail QB Sam Howell and his pass-catchers.
At the same time running backs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams should find plenty of running lanes to scamper through, at least keeping pace with the 6.3 yards a carry the Tar Heels are averaging. With FSU unable to slow the run and 1-8 ATS vs. teams averaging 250 or more passing yards a game, the Heels rub it in.
Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, October 17, 8:00 PM ET – Bryant-Denny Stadium
Georgia on the other hand is more like the SEC was most of this century, a defense-based outfit that is efficient on offense. This sets the classic contrast of styles, which makes this battle all the more fun.
The Crimson Tide are a touchdown favorite as the week commenced and they were dropped to -6 by Tuesday. Then the news broke on Wednesday that Nick Saban has contracted COVID and the Bama slid to -4.5, with only about 55% backing.
At seven or six points there was a modicum of value on the Bulldogs. By Wednesday, the game plan had been in place for Alabama, and position coaches had told their specific group of players how to execute the game plan. Saban runs the show, but he gives his assistants leeway and just demands execution.
Because the Tide has more offense, they pull this one out and win by six or seven points to beat the number.