Big 12 Week 7 Overview: Iowa State Won't Handle West Virginia's Grier

Monday, October 8, 2018 4:46 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 8, 2018 4:46 PM UTC

Will Grier and West Virginia's passing attack will overmatch a competitive Iowa State squad in our Week 7 Big 12 spotlight feature. Here are our thoughts on the game and the rest of this week's conference action. 

Big 12 Spotlight: No. 6 West Virginia (-6.5) at Iowa StateSaturday, 7 p.m. ET (FS1)Free NCAAF Pick: West Virginia ATSBest Line Offered: Bovada

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The betting market can’t catch up to NFL-bound QB Will Grier. When throwing more than 10 passes in a game in his collegiate career, West Virginia is 18-3 SU and 14-6 ATS. The Heisman candidate, currently tossing for 1,819 yards, 21 TDs, and 6 INTs on 126-of-177 passes, leads the offense to 37.6 points per game all-time. The Mountaineers’ 7.0 yards per play against FBS competition is the 10th-highest in the country.

Perhaps what is most surprising with head coach Dana Holgorsen’s current squad is the defense. The unit’s efficiency is as good as ever in Morgantown, yielding just 0.266 points per play (15th in the nation). It stuffs the run (3.3 yards per carry) and the pass (6.7 per attempt) equally well. In fact, going back to last season, West Virginia holds opponents to 23.9 points per game versus those entering a clash averaging less than 24 on the year. Iowa State (2-3 SU, 3-2 ATS) puts up 23.6 an outing.

The Cyclones' offense, however, erupted for 48 points in a 6-point win catching 9 on the college football odds board Saturday at Oklahoma State. It was just the fifth time in the last decade scoring as many. The victory moved head coach Matt Campbell to 15-5-1 ATS in Big 12 play. The former Toledo leader covers a 7.9 average line by 9.0 points per game.

Iowa State has managed to hang tight with the conference’s most pass-happy teams behind Campbell. The program averages 35.0 points per game against those throwing for more than 300 yards per contest. Out of 11 matchups, the Cyclones have lost by more than a touchdown once, despite going off an underdog (13.8 avg. line) in each.

Expect a high-scoring affair with the Mountaineers too much to handle offensively. Grier leads the buckskins to a 40-32 win and covers the 6.5 points.

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Where Will Grier ranks after week six.
📈 pic.twitter.com/YDu4dhq9ra

— WVU Football (@WVUfootball) October 7, 2018
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Around The Big 12 (All Games Saturday Unless Noted)

Texas Tech at TCU (-8.5), Friday, 7:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: TCU (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) head coach Gary Patterson is 17-8 ATS all-time coming off more than 10 days rest in the regular season. Texas Tech (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS), meanwhile, is 4-15 SU and 7-12 ATS as an underdog against an opponent surrendering fewer than 24 points per game behind head coach Kliff Kingsbury.

Oklahoma State (-7) at Kansas State, noon ET, on ESPNU: Kansas State’s (2-4 SU, 3-3 ATS) legendary coach Bill Snyder is 6-2 ATS against Oklahoma State’s (4-2 SU, 3-3 ATS) Mike Gundy, topping a 5.0 average line by 8.0 points per game. The "over" has cashed in all but one meeting with an average score of 71.0 points.

Baylor at No. 9 Texas (-16.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: Baylor (4-2 SU, 2-4 ATS) scores 12.3 points per game in 16 catching double digits on the college football odds board against Texas (5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS) since 1980. The Longhorns, on the other hand, have failed to cover five of their last six against unranked opponents, including Kansas State, Maryland, and Tulsa this season.

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