Big 12 Week 5 Overview: Fear Grier in WVA-Texas Tech Tussle

Tuesday, September 25, 2018 12:35 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 25, 2018 12:35 PM UTC

West Virginia QB Will Grier is making a case for the Heisman, as he leads the undefeated Mountaineers to pass-happy Texas Tech in a game destined to light up the scoreboard. Free pick for this ranked matchup, and betting tidbits for all the Week 5 Big 12 action this way.

<h2 style="text-align:center"><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Big 12 Spotlight: No. 12 West Virginia at Texas Tech</a></h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Saturday, noon ET (ESPN2)</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Free NCAAF Pick: West Virginia</h2><h2 style="text-align:center">Best Line Offered: <a href=";book=Bookmaker" rel="nofollow" target="_blank" title="Check this Top Rated Sportsbook!">Bookmaker</a></h2><p>[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3449140, "sportsbooksIds":[238,93,92,19,1096], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1}[/]</p><p>West Virginia (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) QB Will Grier is making a strong case for the Heisman Trophy, currently 71-of-95 with 1,117 yards, 14 TDs, and 3 INTs. He’s led the Mountaineers to five straight wins and covers dating back to 2017. When attempting more than 10 passes in a game, the team averages 39.8 points per game. To compete against West Virginia, one has to match Grier and Co. on the scoreboard.</p><p>Texas Tech (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) has the firepower to keep up. The Air Raid offense tops the nation with 601.7 yards per game points per game against FBS opponents (Ole Miss, Houston), averaging 43.7 points. The quick-strike attack has kept QB Alan Bowman upright on 0.62 percent of pass plays, third best nationally. It can pick apart a defense with little pressure and plenty of passing lanes.</p><p>The Red Raiders moved into the AP Top 25 for just the second time since the 2013 season with its 41-17 rout over Oklahoma State. It’s a position head coach Kliff Kingsbury has failed to regularly meet the betting market’s expectations, going 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in his tenure, yet kicking off a -4.3 average favorite.</p><p>One mark of consistency is the public typically has a hard time pinning a total on the situation. The over has hit in all six by a healthy 11.3 average margin (63.0 avg. line). Texas Tech has put up 30 points or more in each contest. Look for a total well above 70 points.</p><p>Grier will relish a shootout. He’s commandeered the Mountaineers to 41.0 points per game in contests with a total north of 68 points and in single-digit territory on the spread. The ‘over’ has hit in each with an 81.3 average final score. Oddsmakers can’t set a number high enough to contain these two. Pick the ‘over’ and a West Virginia cover.</p><p>[/]{"component": "embedHTML", "code": "&lt;blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-lang=\"pt\"&gt;&lt;p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\"&gt;Quarterback Will Grier has been named the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Week! This is the second time this season he has earned the honor. &lt;a href=\";amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\"&gt;#HailWV&lt;/a&gt; &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;— WVU Football (@WVUfootball) &lt;a href=\"\"&gt;24 de setembro de 2018&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/blockquote&gt;\n&lt;script async src=\"\" charset=\"utf-8\"&gt;&lt;/script&gt;"}[/]</p><h2>Around the Big 12 (All Games Saturday)</h2><p><strong><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Oklahoma State (-18) at Kansas</a>, noon ET:</strong> All good things must end, including Kansas’ (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) rare two-game win streak last Saturday in a 26-7 defeat to Baylor. The Jayhawks are improving, slightly ahead of the market over the last calendar year. It’s 3-1-2 ATS coming off a loss since the halfway point in 2017. Oklahoma State (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), on the other hand, is just 4-12-2 ATS as road chalk of a field goal or more in the last 18 under such conditions.</p><p><strong><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">No. 18 Texas (-6) at Kansas State</a>, 3:30 p.m. ET, on FS1:</strong> For whatever reason, Kansas State (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) owns this series in recent years, going 9-5 SU and 10-3-1 ATS since 1998. Texas (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), in fact, has dropped four of nine outright as the betting favorite, including all three laying more than a touchdown.</p><p><strong><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Baylor at No. 6 Oklahoma (-22.5)</a>, 3:30 p.m. ET, on ABC: </strong>In the last 10 years, Oklahoma (4-0 SU, 1-3 ATS) posts 45.2 points per game laying 20 points or more to visiting Big 12 rivals. When opponents enter with a positive point differential, like Baylor (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS), the ‘over’ is 9-2-1 with a 68.5 combined final score.</p><p><strong><a href="" target="_blank" title="Game Odds">Iowa State at TCU (-11)</a>, 7 p.m. ET, in ESPNU: </strong>TCU (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) head coach Gary Patterson is just 10-17 ATS as the betting favorite following a game in which his team scored fewer than 20 points, including losing the last six of seven. Iowa State (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS), meanwhile, is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine against conference opponents.</p>
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