Big 12 Week 4 Overview: TCU to Stuff Rival Texas

Tuesday, September 18, 2018 12:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 18, 2018 12:12 PM UTC

No. 17 TCU's defense is typically the difference-maker in its annual state showdown against Texas. Offense, however, will likely be on display in several other Big 12 games this weekend.

Big 12 Spotlight: No. 17 TCU at TexasSaturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (Fox)Free NCAAF Pick: Under 50.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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The primary question all bettors need to address is whether Texas (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) can score. It has put up 10, 7, 9, and 7 points respectively in the last four meetings versus TCU (2-1 SU, 3-0 ATS). Longtime Horned Frogs head coach Gary Patterson, in fact, surrenders just 15.7 points per game in seven career matchups. He is 5-2 SU and ATS, claiming victory by an 11.9 average margin.

The Longhorns' offense struggles against more than just the TCU defense; it also largely ineffective versus ranked conference opponents. Since 2006, Texas posts just 23.3 points per game in this situation. The "under" is 30-12 with a 52.3 average final score staying 6.3 points shy of a 58.6 total. The passing game stumbles to just 216.6 yards on 32.7 tosses.

Texas might be lucky to reach two touchdowns. Since the start of last season, TCU has squared off against eight opponents averaging fewer than 40 points per game. It surrenders 12.6 points per contests. The Longhorns posts 31.3 through three games, but came up 5.5 and 12.5 shy of market projections against Maryland and Tulsa before rebounding for a 37-point effort in its win over USC last Saturday.

Texas stays competitive in this game only with a strong defensive effort. TCU wins 27-20. Pick "under" 50.5 for the best betting value.

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#⃣1⃣7⃣ in the Coaches Poll and @AP_Top25 pic.twitter.com/03u8PG6R4O

— TCU Football (@TCUFootball) September 16, 2018
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Around the Big 12 (All Games Saturday)

Akron at Iowa State (-19.5), noon ET: Unranked Big 12 teams such as Iowa State (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS) are 43-9 SU and 32-16 ATS (66.6 percent) hosting MAC opponents since 1980. The Power 5 conference wins by 21.2 points per game.

Kansas at Baylor (-9.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on FS1: This is the first game since 2016 Baylor (2-14 SU, 1-2 ATS) will kick off home chalk hosting a Big 12 opponent. Kansas (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS), meanwhile, is looking to string together three wins for the first time since 2009. For what it’s worth, the Jayhawks’ 31-7 win at Central Michigan in Week 2 as 3-point pups was their first road underdog upset since 2007. They went 1-47 and 15-30-3 ATS in their 48 prior attempts.

Kansas State at No. 12 West Virginia (-14.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, on ESPN: West Virginia (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is just 10-17 ATS (37.0 percent) at Mountaineer Field since joining the Big 12 in 2012. Kansas State (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS), however, has lost all three visits to the Morgantown fortress, failing to score more than 20 points in each visit.

Army at No. 5 Oklahoma (-31.5), 7 p.m. ET: Army (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) brings its triple-option attack to Oklahoma (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) posting an efficient 4.9 yards per rush. The "over" is 22-6-2 in the last 30 matchups the Sooners lay 20-plus points to a team accruing greater than 3.5 yards per carry on the year.

Texas Tech at No. 15 Oklahoma State (-13), 7 p.m. ET, on FS1: In the last 25 years, Texas Tech (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) is 24-36-1 (40.0 percent) against ranked opponents, including going 0-11 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 matchups. The defense yields 51.5 points per game in this span. The 79 total might no be enough against Mike Gundy’s high-flying Cowboys.

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